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Can we salvage a White Christmas in SNE?


Damage In Tolland

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New NAM is very paltry on QPF though...esp compared to its zonked up 12z run. Not much over an inch anywhere on the new NAM. Kind of weird because the SREFs that just came out before it were more bullish on QPF. We'll just have to see how this evolves I gues over the next 9-12 hours.
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New NAM is very paltry on QPF though...esp compared to its zonked up 12z run. Not much over an inch anywhere on the new NAM. Kind of weird because the SREFs that just came out before it were more bullish on QPF. We'll just have to see how this evolves I gues over the next 9-12 hours.

Radar looks paltry so maybe the NAM is right...NAM always chops QFP on the eve of said event too.

I'm shocked and stunned that the NAM has sliced expected QPF at the last minute

1 for all:

I'm with Will we will have to see what happens in tight overnight. From what I could see the MM5 was more confined with the precip. It seems almost all models wanted to develop a band of precip that is more intense than the rest south of Long Island/Block Island late tonight. That moved up over either SE areas (new NAM is still .25" along the coast/Euro) or all areas (old Nam). We'll just have to wait to see what shakes. The only concern I have is that where the best precip is, we do not have the best BL. If we can get some real precip we should flip, DP's are really low. WWA is up in the belt that should see the best QPF. 1-3" still seems plausible, maybe 2-4" if we can get lucky. Not going to speak of anything outside of the box from Attleboro east to Marshfield south to me and then west back to Attleboro.

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There's your band of snow for later....forming and moving up from SNJ and off the coast.

http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes

GFS/NAM split the moisture and keep most of the southern stream moisture confined either to the extreme SE coast/offshore (GFS) or SE/E areas on the 18z NAM. The rest of the region is left with flurries from the northern vortmax.

NAM at 18z had two pulses. One as this energy spits NE now which is already starting to happen. The 2nd comes later as the northern vortmax moves in. Neither are particularly intense.

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RUC has been holding that slug of precip further north with each run. I think CT def gets in on it...but perhaps even to the pike as well. Would certainly be a nice boost.

The banding looks fairly heavy over NJ so I'm getting excited in Westchester with dewpoints in the 20s and a bit of elevation/woods to keep surface temperatures lower to help accumulations. Do you think I could pull 3" out of this in Dobbs Ferry?

NWS still has mostly rain here which seems a joke at this point with folks in VA/MD still getting snow. Don't know how they think it's going to rain in the NW elevated suburbs of NYC given current obs and a weak low scooting south of us. They also have all rain for the system on the 27th so I am doubting OKX's forecasting as of now.

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The banding looks fairly heavy over NJ so I'm getting excited in Westchester with dewpoints in the 20s and a bit of elevation/woods to keep surface temperatures lower to help accumulations. Do you think I could pull 3" out of this in Dobbs Ferry?

NWS still has mostly rain here which seems a joke at this point with folks in VA/MD still getting snow. Don't know how they think it's going to rain in the NW elevated suburbs of NYC given current obs and a weak low scooting south of us. They also have all rain for the system on the 27th so I am doubting OKX's forecasting as of now.

I would think you probably pick up a couple inches anyway.

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The banding looks fairly heavy over NJ so I'm getting excited in Westchester with dewpoints in the 20s and a bit of elevation/woods to keep surface temperatures lower to help accumulations. Do you think I could pull 3" out of this in Dobbs Ferry?

NWS still has mostly rain here which seems a joke at this point with folks in VA/MD still getting snow. Don't know how they think it's going to rain in the NW elevated suburbs of NYC given current obs and a weak low scooting south of us. They also have all rain for the system on the 27th so I am doubting OKX's forecasting as of now.

How is Westchester Cty an NW suburb when most of it lies East of the longitude of Manhattan ? Orange, Western Rockland, extreme North Jersey counties are the NW suburbs. Westchester, Eastern Rockland and Putnam are Northern suburbs.
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How is Westchester Cty an NW suburb when most of it lies East of the longitude of Manhattan ? Orange, Western Rockland, extreme North Jersey counties are the NW suburbs. Westchester, Eastern Rockland and Putnam are Northern suburbs.

When we say NW suburbs, we usually refer to suburbs that are either north or west of NYC. These areas all have a similar climatology, being a few degrees colder than NYC with elevations ranging up to 1000' and greater distance from the coast. These criteria apply to NW NJ, Rockland/Orange Counties, and Westchester/Putnam Counties.

I, of course, agree that Westchester is not to the west of NYC, unless you are talking about Brooklyn or Queens like where I work.

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