ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 New NAM is very paltry on QPF though...esp compared to its zonked up 12z run. Not much over an inch anywhere on the new NAM. Kind of weird because the SREFs that just came out before it were more bullish on QPF. We'll just have to see how this evolves I gues over the next 9-12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The 15z SREFs have gotten a bit better with QPF. Now a good chunk of E MA over 0.25". Festivus for CT and everyone east of the CT River?? Congrats. Off to church. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 On line at whole foods. Next stop trader joes. Need a new shovel.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Radar looks paltry so maybe the NAM is right...NAM always chops QFP on the eve of said event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Radar looks paltry so maybe the NAM is right...NAM always chops QFP on the eve of said event too. Since it's Christmas shouldn't we buy what Willy Loman is selling us in these spaces ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'm shocked and stunned that the NAM has sliced expected QPF at the last minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'm shocked and stunned that the NAM has sliced expected QPF at the last minute really? Sounds like typical NAMUsing IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 really? Sounds like typical NAM Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. He was being sarcastic lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 He was being sarcastic lol lol yeah I mean the GFS and Euro have always been pretty paltry. When coupled with some pretty lousy looking snow growth it was really hard to get excited about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 well i never thought the radar looked that hot since this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 He was being sarcastic lol oh, sorry, multi tasking today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 New NAM is very paltry on QPF though...esp compared to its zonked up 12z run. Not much over an inch anywhere on the new NAM. Kind of weird because the SREFs that just came out before it were more bullish on QPF. We'll just have to see how this evolves I gues over the next 9-12 hours. Radar looks paltry so maybe the NAM is right...NAM always chops QFP on the eve of said event too. I'm shocked and stunned that the NAM has sliced expected QPF at the last minute 1 for all: I'm with Will we will have to see what happens in tight overnight. From what I could see the MM5 was more confined with the precip. It seems almost all models wanted to develop a band of precip that is more intense than the rest south of Long Island/Block Island late tonight. That moved up over either SE areas (new NAM is still .25" along the coast/Euro) or all areas (old Nam). We'll just have to wait to see what shakes. The only concern I have is that where the best precip is, we do not have the best BL. If we can get some real precip we should flip, DP's are really low. WWA is up in the belt that should see the best QPF. 1-3" still seems plausible, maybe 2-4" if we can get lucky. Not going to speak of anything outside of the box from Attleboro east to Marshfield south to me and then west back to Attleboro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 There's your band of snow for later....forming and moving up from SNJ and off the coast. http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes GFS/NAM split the moisture and keep most of the southern stream moisture confined either to the extreme SE coast/offshore (GFS) or SE/E areas on the 18z NAM. The rest of the region is left with flurries from the northern vortmax. NAM at 18z had two pulses. One as this energy spits NE now which is already starting to happen. The 2nd comes later as the northern vortmax moves in. Neither are particularly intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 18z hrrr look'd less impressive than 12z and didn't have too much north of pike. This looks like a kev jpot of 2 to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 radar doesn't look that bad does it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Forecast for tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Forecast for tonight That bad huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 That bad huh? It's about what I've had all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Maybe scooter and son can hike mqe for white xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nice radar to the south. Can see a little Vort perhaps on Philly radar. Wonder if those echoes hold. I can't see water vapor, but do any shortwaves look healthy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 There's most likely goping to be some nice surprises tomorrow. 1-3 is what I think for all of us..Someone will get a 4 spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Radar for now looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Radar for now looks decent. I am getting excited down here...34.8/26 with overcast skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 RUC has been holding that slug of precip further north with each run. I think CT def gets in on it...but perhaps even to the pike as well. Would certainly be a nice boost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 RUC has been holding that slug of precip further north with each run. I think CT def gets in on it...but perhaps even to the pike as well. Would certainly be a nice boost. The banding looks fairly heavy over NJ so I'm getting excited in Westchester with dewpoints in the 20s and a bit of elevation/woods to keep surface temperatures lower to help accumulations. Do you think I could pull 3" out of this in Dobbs Ferry? NWS still has mostly rain here which seems a joke at this point with folks in VA/MD still getting snow. Don't know how they think it's going to rain in the NW elevated suburbs of NYC given current obs and a weak low scooting south of us. They also have all rain for the system on the 27th so I am doubting OKX's forecasting as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The banding looks fairly heavy over NJ so I'm getting excited in Westchester with dewpoints in the 20s and a bit of elevation/woods to keep surface temperatures lower to help accumulations. Do you think I could pull 3" out of this in Dobbs Ferry? NWS still has mostly rain here which seems a joke at this point with folks in VA/MD still getting snow. Don't know how they think it's going to rain in the NW elevated suburbs of NYC given current obs and a weak low scooting south of us. They also have all rain for the system on the 27th so I am doubting OKX's forecasting as of now. I would think you probably pick up a couple inches anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The banding looks fairly heavy over NJ so I'm getting excited in Westchester with dewpoints in the 20s and a bit of elevation/woods to keep surface temperatures lower to help accumulations. Do you think I could pull 3" out of this in Dobbs Ferry? NWS still has mostly rain here which seems a joke at this point with folks in VA/MD still getting snow. Don't know how they think it's going to rain in the NW elevated suburbs of NYC given current obs and a weak low scooting south of us. They also have all rain for the system on the 27th so I am doubting OKX's forecasting as of now. How is Westchester Cty an NW suburb when most of it lies East of the longitude of Manhattan ? Orange, Western Rockland, extreme North Jersey counties are the NW suburbs. Westchester, Eastern Rockland and Putnam are Northern suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Snowing in Philly and Trenton. On the doorstep of NYC and Kdobbsferry. Hope it holds to the pike or even north of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 RUC has been holding that slug of precip further north with each run. I think CT def gets in on it...but perhaps even to the pike as well. Would certainly be a nice boost. Remember the RUC band for you and I on Nov 7th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 How is Westchester Cty an NW suburb when most of it lies East of the longitude of Manhattan ? Orange, Western Rockland, extreme North Jersey counties are the NW suburbs. Westchester, Eastern Rockland and Putnam are Northern suburbs. When we say NW suburbs, we usually refer to suburbs that are either north or west of NYC. These areas all have a similar climatology, being a few degrees colder than NYC with elevations ranging up to 1000' and greater distance from the coast. These criteria apply to NW NJ, Rockland/Orange Counties, and Westchester/Putnam Counties. I, of course, agree that Westchester is not to the west of NYC, unless you are talking about Brooklyn or Queens like where I work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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