Baroclinic Zone Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 we both know how it can be very erratic on QPF placement but I think it's right on with the low. The Euro now pops it too. I think you, Bob, maybe scott/jerry/kev and some others are going to really do well. We'll have to see where the banding sets up but it's going to be there. Seems to me like 2-4 will fall in a band somewhere just on the other side of the r/s line. I think taint will be the biggest issue. NAM/GFS both have 850c above 0c for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euros on board and so am I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Noel, Noel, Noel a Christmas miracle to brighten the faces of those who need it most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 What's the qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 What's the qpf? 0.05" MPV-1P1-SFM 0.10" RUT-AFN-MHT-Hampton All of SNE is 0.10-0.25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 I think you can legit forecast 2-4 tomorroe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I think you can legit forecast 2-4 tomorroe Based on what, though? Where are you seeing .4" QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Based on what, though? Where are you seeing .4" QPF? 20:1 ratios .. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Based on what, though? Where are you seeing .4" QPF? Terrain enhanced DUH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Based on what, though? Where are you seeing .4" QPF? CT_blizz model rules...take the highest possible qpf output and multiply by 1.5 Though realistically someone could get close to 4" if they get 0.25"...get into a decent little band that has 15 to 1 ratios or so. Esp over the hillier spots where sfc temps in the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Overcast lowering and thickening, northeast wind freshening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Based on what, though? Where are you seeing .4" QPF? 2-4 isn't unreasonable based on the Euro/NAM/MM5 and probably the 18z. 4" really isn't forecast or supported by the QPF yet but a solid 1.5 to 3" is...and based on trends 4 isn't unreasonable AT THIS STAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 0.05" MPV-1P1-SFM 0.10" RUT-AFN-MHT-Hampton All of SNE is 0.10-0.25. Thank you sir. Feel good about 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 vort max is even more potent again. Pay attention to the higher res models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 vort max is even more potent again. Pay attention to the higher res models Yes and it seems to carrying through (stronger). It's probably not good news for me, but someone to my NW should take a memorable Xmas hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 When do light snows break out tonite guys (say) for 128 corridor, much thanks, happy holiays, merry xmas eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yes and it seems to carrying through (stronger). It's probably not good news for me, but someone to my NW should take a memorable Xmas hit. I think you will see flakes...if you are awake at 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Many will have 1"+ OTG for XMAS morning. As I have said for the last week, the NAM does the best in these over running/WAA situations. The only places I think that will be in trouble are the immediate south coast of CT/RI/MA where BL temps will probably be running 32-36F. My bad on just getting to this thread and not seeing QPF requests. But yeah 1-3" seems likely for SNE off the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euros on board and so am I. Congrats to you, Kevin, Steve, Bob. I think you'll dodge warmth and wind up with 3 and lollies to 4. Gradiant dowward to about an 1" for me, Sam, Dave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The NWS has actually reduced the expected snowfall amount here to 1-2" on their snowfall map and the P/C forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The NWS has actually reduced the expected snowfall amount here to 1-2" on their snowfall map and the P/C forecast. 1-2 should do it. There probably will be a narrow band of possibly more, but I think in general...that's a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The NWS has actually reduced the expected snowfall amount here to 1-2" on their snowfall map and the P/C forecast. Its meaningless. Expect 1-3"...if you get a 4" lolli...all the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 The NWS has actually reduced the expected snowfall amount here to 1-2" on their snowfall map and the P/C forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'll take trace-1" and run and wait till Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'm surprised at how warm the NAM and GFS are even up to the Mass border. GFS BUFKIT shows mainly sleet and freezing rain at BDL lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 EC ens look similar to the op...maybe a tick north in QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The 15z SREFs have gotten a bit better with QPF. Now a good chunk of E MA over 0.25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'm surprised at how warm the NAM and GFS are even up to the Mass border. GFS BUFKIT shows mainly sleet and freezing rain at BDL lol. New NAM is colder, coming into line with most other Meso guidance, edit oops current did not upload Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 When this start (on mobile) midnite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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