HoarfrostHubb Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks rpetty unchanged qpf-wise outside of the increase in CT, but that may just be due to not reaching the next threshold in spite of their being an increase. Scott's taling aobut the 850 cooler--but it actually reaches further north from SE CT across RI and SE Mass before movign back south. Regardless, I'm willing to pass tonight by in exchange for what the NAM's showing for the second system! I will pay you with an inch of snow tuesday for 3-6" on Thursday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It's a little further south with 850 and 700 features...now a nice 850 WF modeled to help squeeze out the snow. That would likely be a wet snow to start for a while even near Messenger and Phil. Winds are light which helps limit marine taint...at least to start. Looks maybe like snow to rain to snow to me here. I like the trends, funny that once again as the s/ws exit the rockies the models ticked a bit better for us each run. The NAM is onto something IMO I expect the models to be better through the rest of the suite too...including the Euro. Notice the last minute enhancement and the system developing over the WXUSAF gulfstream. My temps are going to be so marginal here I wouldn't be surprised with all rain either or a flip to a few inches of snow. 1/3 2/4 seems like a good bet for many in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks maybe like snow to rain to snow to me here. I like the trends, funny that once again as the s/ws exit the rockies the models ticked a bit better for us each run. The NAM is onto something IMO I expect the models to be better through the rest of the suite too...including the Euro. Notice the last minute enhancement and the system developing over the WXUSAF gulfstream. My temps are going to be so marginal here I wouldn't be surprised with all rain either or a flip to a few inches of snow. 1/3 2/4 seems like a good bet for many in SNE. Almost miraculous, in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Just woke up and checked out the 12z nam. That would be beautiful. Lock that up please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Almost miraculous, in my opinion. GFS and NAM had the same idea at 6z. 12z is no surprise. 6z RGEM had the same thing to an extent too. It's going to happen. Temps are borderline for some of us. But 1/3, perhaps 2-4 is very much in the game at this point. Spot 5? I wasn't kidding there is definitely a last minute kick with this system, to some extent he was right if it plays out as currently modeled. We're back to the system we thought we were getting 2-3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Always mow extra short for last mowing of year in mid Nov Dec (for south coastal communities) FYP noticed box has the narragansett bay snow hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Almost miraculous, in my opinion. Gulf Stream miracle should be the theme rest of the year Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 NAM's late to the party but brings all the goods. Quite the development over the past 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Don't have total period precip yet, but 12z RGEM looks like hefty amounts of precip from the MA/CT border up into NE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 What did I miss with the gulf stream miracle theme going on? At any rate, I'm not shocked it has come back a little better. The vortmax has always had some punch to it. These little redevelopers south of LI always have to be watched. I think I made some reference to that amidst the noose-tying and bridge jumping when some of the guidance was trending worse. I do not think we will get the magnitude system that some runs showed at their peak, but I think a couple of inches is a good bet for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Up totals to 3-5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I was confusing the 3hr precip vs. 6hr I think. Total RGEM precip for SNE ranges from 0.1 to 0.2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 What did I miss with the gulf stream miracle theme going on? At any rate, I'm not shocked it has come back a little better. The vortmax has always had some punch to it. These little redevelopers south of LI always have to be watched. I think I made some reference to that amidst the noose-tying and bridge jumping when some of the guidance was trending worse. I do not think we will get the magnitude system that some runs showed at their peak, but I think a couple of inches is a good bet for many. USCAPEWEATHER NAM is super close to giving us the Gulf Stream storm miracle. look at around hour 42 or 45 it is super close to the NAM being out performed by real life circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 What did I miss with the gulf stream miracle theme going on? At any rate, I'm not shocked it has come back a little better. The vortmax has always had some punch to it. These little redevelopers south of LI always have to be watched. I think I made some reference to that amidst the noose-tying and bridge jumping when some of the guidance was trending worse. I do not think we will get the magnitude system that some runs showed at their peak, but I think a couple of inches is a good bet for many. Usweatheraf's gulf miracle Rename thread now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Hopefully, everyone will open a gift on Christmas Eve and discover they're received a spanking, brand new Kiteboard. We might need them this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 What's better than hanging by the pit shucking ice cold oysters as dendrites cascade from the heavens? Merry Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 What's better than hanging by the pit shucking ice cold oysters as dendrites cascade from the heavens? Merry Christmas Merry Christmas, enjoy!Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Did we get a total on the RGEM? GFS carries the same theme but the rub being the heaviest QPF on the GFS is in borderline/too warm temps. My feeling on this is go with the regional/meso models. It's a decent vortmax, we've got the USWXAF gulf stream temp bubble, I think we're going to see a well defined low south of us in the morning ALA the MM5. QPF? Well we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GEM, Ukie and GFS all look fairly status quo on this despite the NAM's more exciting solution at 12z. 1-2" seems like a pretty decent forecast. Always potential for some spot weenie totals a bit higher...esp if this low strengthens S of LI a bit more than guidance wants to give credit for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GEM, Ukie and GFS all look fairly status quo on this despite the NAM's more exciting solution at 12z. 1-2" seems like a pretty decent forecast. Always potential for some spot weenie totals a bit higher...esp if this low strengthens S of LI a bit more than guidance wants to give credit for. I would think that that strengthening would best serve the folks Southeast of a line from northern RI up toward Boston (until you have coastal p-type influcences). For mby, I hope that strengthening doesn't rob moisture from what is pretty meager to begin with in GC. But, such is life if that happens. There's always Wed/Thur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I would think that that strengthening would best serve the folks Southeast of a line from northern RI up toward Boston (until you have coastal p-type influcences). For mby, I hope that strengthening doesn't rob moisture from what is pretty meager to begin with in GC. But, such is life if that happens. There's always Wed/Thur. It's going to be really close. I'd think this strengthens a bit more than the global models will forecast. More rain for me, but someone to my NW should cash in. I think 1-3" for SNE covers it right about now. I'm expecting only some falling snow or a coating here. The s/w's look pretty healthy right now. I think we'll have a defined low right off the NJ coast in about 16-17 hours. I kind of expect the 18z's to tick up the precip in terms of the RGEM/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GEM, Ukie and GFS all look fairly status quo on this despite the NAM's more exciting solution at 12z. 1-2" seems like a pretty decent forecast. Always potential for some spot weenie totals a bit higher...esp if this low strengthens S of LI a bit more than guidance wants to give credit for. NAM might handle this small scale vort max better? This is a case that offers potential for a positive bust. At the same time could easily be a coating to 2" deal all the same ... but something like this can pull off a weenie band that drops 4" of fluff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 NAM might handle this small scale vort max better? This is a case that offers potential for a positive bust. At the same time could easily be a coating to 2" deal all the same ... but something like this can pull off a weenie band that drops 4" of fluff Even though the models were much worse back in the day...I remember the old ETA the night before the Dec 1997 event had a big snow event...it was discounted because it was a serious break in continuity and the global models didn't agree with it...so the forecasts stuck with 1-3". Kevin Lemanowicz on FOX even mentioned it on the 10pm newscast. He said something like "we have one model hot off the presses that is showing a major snowstorm for much of the interior, but we're gonna go ahead and throw that out right now"...or something to that effect. The general premise is that I would agree the hi res mesoscale models would handle this type of event a bit better than the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 thanks to last night the chance of a white Christmas imby is 100% But I still really think my area eeks out a weenie 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Even though the models were much worse back in the day...I remember the old ETA the night before the Dec 1997 event had a big snow event...it was discounted because it was a serious break in continuity and the global models didn't agree with it...so the forecasts stuck with 1-3". Kevin Lemanowicz on FOX even mentioned it on the 10pm newscast. He said something like "we have one model hot off the presses that is showing a major snowstorm for much of the interior, but we're gonna go ahead and throw that out right now"...or something to that effect. The general premise is that I would agree the hi res mesoscale models would handle this type of event a bit better than the globals. He was around back then? I wish we had a little local model like BTVs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 thanks to last night the chance of a white Christmas imby is 100% But I still really think my area eeks out a weenie 3" Your a sicko Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Did we get a total on the RGEM? GFS carries the same theme but the rub being the heaviest QPF on the GFS is in borderline/too warm temps. My feeling on this is go with the regional/meso models. It's a decent vortmax, we've got the USWXAF gulf stream temp bubble, I think we're going to see a well defined low south of us in the morning ALA the MM5. QPF? Well we'll see. MM 5 says Merry Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 MM 5 says Merry Christmas we both know how it can be very erratic on QPF placement but I think it's right on with the low. The Euro now pops it too. I think you, Bob, maybe scott/jerry/kev and some others are going to really do well. We'll have to see where the banding sets up but it's going to be there. Seems to me like 2-4 will fall in a band somewhere just on the other side of the r/s line. EDIT: If I had to guess the best precip banding will be from Kev to Sultan across southern MA and central/northern RI into Bob country across to Marshfield? Jerry/Scott on the northern edge, the southern edge being to my NW a bit. 1-3" is probably the way to go for now, but 2-4" may quickly creep in as the 18z runs come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 EURO has little taint in SNE...below 0C almost everywhere in SNE except for 2m along coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 EURO has little taint in SNE...below 0C almost everywhere in SNE except for 2m along coast. How was it on total QPF? Also...around the canal I can't see the temps. Decent for snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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