Bostonseminole Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 18z gfs is meh pretty steady from 12z, I woud lock snow, 2" tops imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 That really doesn't have much (if any) model support but good luck! Neither did the Nov 27 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Neither did the Nov 27 event ? Most of us got little if any from that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Here's my forecast for the Monday/Tuesday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Jerry, what are you thinking in our areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 where's wiz's snow map thread? here's my map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 where's wiz's snow map thread? here's my map... Thats exactly what I would draw. Hopefully everyone gets snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Jerry, what are you thinking in our areas? I think we do surprisingly well. 1-3 with some enhancement somewhere nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I think we do surprisingly well. 1-3 with some enhancement somewhere nearby. I'm just concerned about being outside banding. Surface temps aren't the coldest I've seen, could see a gross mix somewhere not too far from us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I could see Boston under an inch while Jerry gets about one inch just inside coastal interior. Ray getting probably around halfway between an inch or two. Kev probably gets 2" while Will pulls out close to a weenie 3", same with pete? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I think NAM and GFS are off with QPF, and here's why: the gulf stream has an enormous purpose when it comes to impacting our weather on a day to day basis. The warmer ocean well off the coast is great for all types of fishermen. That's besides the point. THe gulf stream will sometimes rarely have an eddy break off from it and show higher SST anomalies along the NJ/DE coastline this time of the year. We also have another pocket of warmer water temperatures across 39n 70w. Models show this system traveling over it and without terrible dynamics the surface gradients would prove more to help the physics of the thermodynamic outlook on the situation. The convective outlook could be jeopardized within the model suite with this in the fold. Something to keep a close eye on when it comes to the weenie snow band set up. Hate the 27th setup and the 30th looks better but not the greatest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I think NAM and GFS are off with QPF, and here's why: the gulf stream has an enormous purpose when it comes to impacting our weather on a day to day basis. The warmer ocean well off the coast is great for all types of fishermen. That's besides the point. THe gulf stream will sometimes rarely have an eddy break off from it and show higher SST anomalies along the NJ/DE coastline this time of the year. We also have another pocket of warmer water temperatures across 39n 70w. Models show this system traveling over it and without terrible dynamics the surface gradients would prove more to help the physics of the thermodynamic outlook on the situation. The convective outlook could be jeopardized within the model suite with this in the fold. Something to keep a close eye on when it comes to the weenie snow band set up. Hate the 27th setup and the 30th looks better but not the greatest. Gulf stream fetish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Gulf stream fetish Also the wrong thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Debbie vs the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Its in the right thread, and its not a gulf stream fetish, it is quite possible that QPF field could be stronger, I've see it in global models QPF fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Its in the right thread, and its not a gulf stream fetish, it is quite possible that QPF field could be stronger, I've see it in global models QPF fields. this is the right thread and he has a point, I'm leaning towards more qpf per the nam on the order of .15-.30"qpf. The 4km rpm does show .22" qpf for bdr and maxes at .42" qpf for boston.. What is most concerning is the warm layer around 925mb especially south of I-84. Thinking that any area that does see all snow will see 8-12 hours of light snow occassionally moderate which should accumulate 1-2" with a few 3" spots possible. This is most likely north of I-84 and in elevation, we will see what happens for areas just inland, as I think immediate coast is mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 this is the right thread and he has a point, I'm leaning towards more qpf per the nam on the order of .15-.30"qpf. The 4km rpm does show .22" qpf for bdr and maxes at .42" qpf for boston.. What is most concerning is the warm layer around 925mb especially south of I-84. Thinking that any area that does see all snow will see 8-12 hours of light snow occassionally moderate which should accumulate 1-2" with a few 3" spots possible. This is most likely north of I-84 and in elevation, we will see what happens for areas just inland, as I think immediate coast is mostly rain. Prediction at BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Prediction at BOS? 1-3" just inland off the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 water vapor looks pretty good. 0z runs should be fun to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'm thinking somewhere around me might jackpot with 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I agree the Gulf Stream should add onto some snow totals and enhance any snowfall that does fall. It won't be much more, but I think we the dynamics in play and with the ocean to our south and southwest warmer than average I wouldn't be surprised to see the transfer happen sooner and the intensification faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 1-3" just inland off the water. Lol... well 200 feet away from the water here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Put this together today. Don't really think it's much different than others that I've seen. I didn't plot the Berkshires but I wouldn't be surprised if they saw up to 3". I also mastered Microsoft Paint while doing this so I would say today was pretty successful to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I feel so ghetto right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 While not the fanciest, the numbers look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Judging by what Will and Scooter said about the lift and how the best would be in SNH, I would have to say the so called Jackpot would be there. CONGRATS Dom and SnowNH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 And the rain/mix lines are very close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Judging by what Will and Scooter said about the lift and how the best would be in SNH, I would have to say the so called Jackpot would be there. CONGRATS Dom and SnowNH Isn't the highest amount of precip right around the Pike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Isn't the highest amount of precip right around the Pike? WaWa!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 WaWa!!! I think south of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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