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Can we salvage a White Christmas in SNE?


Damage In Tolland

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I think NAM and GFS are off with QPF, and here's why: the gulf stream has an enormous purpose when it comes to impacting our weather on a day to day basis. The warmer ocean well off the coast is great for all types of fishermen. That's besides the point. THe gulf stream will sometimes rarely have an eddy break off from it and show higher SST anomalies along the NJ/DE coastline this time of the year. We also have another pocket of warmer water temperatures across 39n 70w. Models show this system traveling over it and without terrible dynamics the surface gradients would prove more to help the physics of the thermodynamic outlook on the situation. The convective outlook could be jeopardized within the model suite with this in the fold. Something to keep a close eye on when it comes to the weenie snow band set up. Hate the 27th setup and the 30th looks better but not the greatest.

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I think NAM and GFS are off with QPF, and here's why: the gulf stream has an enormous purpose when it comes to impacting our weather on a day to day basis. The warmer ocean well off the coast is great for all types of fishermen. That's besides the point. THe gulf stream will sometimes rarely have an eddy break off from it and show higher SST anomalies along the NJ/DE coastline this time of the year. We also have another pocket of warmer water temperatures across 39n 70w. Models show this system traveling over it and without terrible dynamics the surface gradients would prove more to help the physics of the thermodynamic outlook on the situation. The convective outlook could be jeopardized within the model suite with this in the fold. Something to keep a close eye on when it comes to the weenie snow band set up. Hate the 27th setup and the 30th looks better but not the greatest.

Gulf stream fetish

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Its in the right thread, and its not a gulf stream fetish, it is quite possible that QPF field could be stronger, I've see it in global models QPF fields.

this is the right thread and he has a point, I'm leaning towards more qpf per the nam on the order of .15-.30"qpf. The 4km rpm does show .22" qpf for bdr and maxes at .42" qpf for boston.. What is most concerning is the warm layer around 925mb especially south of I-84. Thinking that any area that does see all snow will see 8-12 hours of light snow occassionally moderate which should accumulate 1-2" with a few 3" spots possible. This is most likely north of I-84 and in elevation, we will see what happens for areas just inland, as I think immediate coast is mostly rain.

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this is the right thread and he has a point, I'm leaning towards more qpf per the nam on the order of .15-.30"qpf. The 4km rpm does show .22" qpf for bdr and maxes at .42" qpf for boston.. What is most concerning is the warm layer around 925mb especially south of I-84. Thinking that any area that does see all snow will see 8-12 hours of light snow occassionally moderate which should accumulate 1-2" with a few 3" spots possible. This is most likely north of I-84 and in elevation, we will see what happens for areas just inland, as I think immediate coast is mostly rain.

Prediction at BOS?

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