Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 do feel like we are getting there though. step 2 of 4 or 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I know you are just being real but I have to ask you a question. Does being a Debbie all the time, whether it's lamenting the failure of ski areas or consistently reminding us that the pattern has sucked actually make you happy? I know you punted all of December, if it snows and gets cold will you be miserable? The ski areas got clobbered last year. That's not in dispute (although it was during Decemeber 11 when you guys were telling me they'd do just fine because winter was surely right around the corner)...the numbers pretty much witnessed them not having a good year last year for most of the country. It's 12/18 and MRG isn't open this year either. Is that because I'm being a downer or because they haven't gotten much snow? I haven't seen a Wachusett commercial yet, that's more than likely because they're not open not because I'm a "Debbie" I'd love to see it snow, I think barring a weekend ULL underneath us that's unlikely (or perhaps the Will scenario Xmas day) before Xmas. The storm after Xmas could go either way, for now I'd bet on it ending up warmer in SNE south of the Pike with not much snow as the cold air has no north/south teeth in this Pac dominated pattern with storms that repeat. I've had 376" of analog based snow, 7 blizzards, 3 day after tomorrow events and 12 "pattern changes" since 12/11 but almost no real snow. It's 12/18, it's 55 degrees out again, approaching 50 in Boston with departures on par with last winter. I'd rather be a realist than a dreamer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 do feel like we are getting there though. step 2 of 4 or 5. Well at least it's not a cutter. I'm still pulling for a southwest flow event type deal. That's a little closer, but throw some darts out there at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 It's almost an erly gale, but one that may bring in warmer air from an unusual direction because it's so wrapped up? Then, CAA from the sw. It becomes moot if the Oceanic air mass punches in 50F air, sure. SW CAAs tend to under perform, but seeing as the air mass in the source is at or beneath -10C at 850 in the core, may make an exception out of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 euro post xmas just looks like a repeat of the other day with ice in the same zones. Hence the groundhog day reference. We're slowly going in the right direction but we've still got aways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 You know ... that whole scenario beyond 160hours is suspicious, but not impossible. Ah, what does that mean? Well, considering there's a full on 60 to 72 hour residence of a 50/50 vortex, and we pretty damn cold through the deep layer at 144 hours out as a direct result of having that feature, the stage should be set - yet, the Euro blithely ignores that and somehow finds the physics to wrap that thing up into the GL? huh, interesting - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The ski areas got clobbered last year. That's not in dispute (although it was during Decemeber 11 when you guys were telling me they'd do just fine because winter was surely right around the corner)...the numbers pretty much witnessed them not having a good year last year for most of the country. It's 12/18 and MRG isn't open this year either. Is that because I'm being a downer or because they haven't gotten much snow? I haven't seen a Wachusett commercial yet, that's more than likely because they're not open not because I'm a "Debbie" I'd love to see it snow, I think barring a weekend ULL underneath us that's unlikely (or perhaps the Will scenario Xmas day) before Xmas. The storm after Xmas could go either way, for now I'd bet on it ending up warmer in SNE south of the Pike with not much snow as the cold air has no north/south teeth in this Pac dominated pattern with storms that repeat. I've had 376" of analog based snow, 7 blizzards and 3 day after tomorrow events since 12/11 but almost no real snow. It's 12/18, it's 55 degrees out again, approaching 50 in Boston with departures on par with last winter. I'd rather be a realist than a dreamer. lol. but really - this is nothing like last year. we were grasping for straws all winter trying to thread the needle on an event - which you and I actually managed to do on 1/20. but with the raging + AO going absolutely nowhere last year, we had very little hope of ever sustaining a good pattern. this winter won't evolve that way. of course we could get shafted on snow events but i'd chalk that up to bad luck more than the pattern being a fail. the 5h anomaly charts last year are pretty laughable when you go back and look at them. they are night and day to what is going on right now, and ultimately that should prove to help us out. there were weeks last winter when nearly all of the NH was torched outside of AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Saki like I said I know you are just being real but its probably your posts that are more like groundhog day. LOL Kicking team on the field but I am calling for a desperation fake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 lol. but really - this is nothing like last year. we were grasping for straws all winter trying to thread the needle on an event - which you and I actually managed to do on 1/20. but with the raging + AO going absolutely nowhere last year, we had very little hope of ever sustaining a good pattern. this winter won't evolve that way. of course we could get shafted on snow events but i'd chalk that up to bad luck more than the pattern being a fail. the 5h anomaly charts last year are pretty laughable when you go back and look at them. they are night and day to what is going on right now, and ultimately that should prove to help us out. there were weeks last winter when nearly all of the NH was torched outside of AK. i know that doesn't mean squat in terms of snowfall in any one particular backyard...but the pattern is not a guarantee fail job like last winter was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 i know that doesn't mean squat in terms of snowfall in any one particular backyard...but the pattern is not a guarantee fail job like last winter was. Good posts. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Saki like I said I know you are just being real but its probably your posts that are more like groundhog day. LOL Kicking team on the field but I am calling for a desperation fake. The pattern gets to messenger more than anyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The pattern gets to messenger more than anyone else. And dull lawn mower blades. Soon he'll be saying he can feel the rays getting stronger by Jan 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Lock in this weekends snowfall and xmaseve snow with ice the day after. @danburyweather: 12z #Euro shows freezing rain for inland CT on December 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 lol. but really - this is nothing like last year. we were grasping for straws all winter trying to thread the needle on an event - which you and I actually managed to do on 1/20. but with the raging + AO going absolutely nowhere last year, we had very little hope of ever sustaining a good pattern. this winter won't evolve that way. of course we could get shafted on snow events but i'd chalk that up to bad luck more than the pattern being a fail. the 5h anomaly charts last year are pretty laughable when you go back and look at them. they are night and day to what is going on right now, and ultimately that should prove to help us out. there were weeks last winter when nearly all of the NH was torched outside of AK. Of course it's different, they aren't in bikinis on the ski slopes this year. MRG will probably open before mid January this year. It's different, but not much different in real terms which is in terms of snowfall from the Pike south since about 12/1. We're still seeing enormous temperature departures and a general lack of snow in the major cities from Boston south. It's not sunny and warm this year so far though. Saki like I said I know you are just being real but its probably your posts that are more like groundhog day. LOL Kicking team on the field but I am calling for a desperation fake. And you're repetitive with the analogs! I don't, and really haven't seen the same changes in real term weather others are, and over the last day or two I'm getting even more skeptical for the first week of January. But that's JMHO. I'm sure there's an analog showing us getting 2 feet between now and 1/1. Is anyone skating on their local ponds or sledding down their local hills over the next two weeks in SNE? Unlikely, sadly....again this year. The pattern gets to messenger more than anyone else. But it really doesn't. My expectations were low this entire month. If I actually felt the big change was coming I'd be pretty bummed right about now, but I didn't. Doesn't mean Powderfreak won't have his 30" of upslope or that Sunday River has less than 50 trails open this year by Xmas. I stay out of the NNE threads, they're having a reasonable start to the year. The 10 day Op Euro gives us a grand total of no real snow south of the MA Pike all the way to DC. I don't think the GFS is really any different aside of it's ULL that only it has. I mean...is what it is. Sultan call me on it when I'm wrong come 1/2/13 and you're up to your ears in snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 How does a model change 5 h a good 6k miles in 12 hrs. Looking more like its only inside 72 hrs is deadly #modelsregressing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Lock in this weekends snowfall and xmaseve snow with ice the day after. @danburyweather: 12z #Euro shows freezing rain for inland CT on December 26th. I was actually thinking last night that the period around or just after Christmas looked conducive to ice in the same places as this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 euro post xmas just looks like a repeat of the other day with ice in the same zones. Yeah that one has a colder appeal in the mid-levels to me...though verbatim on Euro it looks like a classic icing setup. I wouldn't surprise me though if 12/26 had more front end snow than this past Sunday/Monday did. We'll have to wait and see, but just about all guidance has a secondary near the coast which would definitely lock colder low-level temps into the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Massive power outages from ice as we move twds the ball dropping? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Saki once again last week I posted analogs to show what 5 h could look like this week and said 6 times it did not mean a snowstorm but rather indicated closed cold ULL in the area. Pretty much dead on with 8-11 day lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Massive power outages from ice as we move twds the ball dropping? Maybe a couple days before. Depends on how fast that cold air follows the precip event for warmer areas. I think this Friday will be a good indicator of maybe what to expect when that time rolls around...that is if models hold up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Massive power outages from ice as we move twds the ball dropping? days and days of ice? Does anyone have an analog? Sultan I'm just kidding about the analogs. When the pattern flips to something that'll freeze a bog more than 3" deep and put some snow on the ground I'll be the most happy guy around. This whacks it compared to last year, days and days of mild gloom. At least it was sunny a lot of days last year. I'm off to go flame bastardi on the twitterverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 days and days of ice? Does anyone have an analog? Sultan I'm just kidding about the analogs. When the pattern flips to something that'll freeze a bog more than 3" deep and put some snow on the ground I'll be the most happy guy around. This whacks it compared to last year, days and days of mild gloom. At least it was sunny a lot of days last year. I'm off to go flame bastardi on the twitterverse. I agree...I'd rather nice weather, then a "plenty of chances" London special pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Hate to say it, Jerry... but you feel 93-94 just about every winter. It's as if 93-94 has replaced "fat squirrels" in your lexicon. Meanie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Yeah that one has a colder appeal in the mid-levels to me...though verbatim on Euro it looks like a classic icing setup. I wouldn't surprise me though if 12/26 had more front end snow than this past Sunday/Monday did. We'll have to wait and see, but just about all guidance has a secondary near the coast which would definitely lock colder low-level temps into the interior. yeah definitely agree. it could ultimately end up flatter and further east too. that wouldn't surprise me at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 days and days of ice? Does anyone have an analog? Sultan I'm just kidding about the analogs. When the pattern flips to something that'll freeze a bog more than 3" deep and put some snow on the ground I'll be the most happy guy around. This whacks it compared to last year, days and days of mild gloom. At least it was sunny a lot of days last year. I'm off to go flame bastardi on the twitterverse. i do seriously think that's coming. i could very well be wrong of course and as eduggdouches so adeptly pointed out the other day, long range stuff is not my strength. but i think the axis is shifting east and the antecedent air masses will be far improved so even cutters will be different going forward than what we've seen in the last two to three weeks...by that i mean there should be better chances for front end snows and perhaps secondary genesis south of NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I will have to go with no white Xmas in sne. Of course I hope that I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 i do seriously think that's coming. i could very well be wrong of course and as eduggdouches so adeptly pointed out the other day, long range stuff is not my strength. but i think the axis is shifting east and the antecedent air masses will be far improved so even cutters will be different going forward than what we've seen in the last two to three weeks...by that i mean there should be better chances for front end snows and perhaps secondary genesis south of NE. Agree with that too. Eduggs may not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I will have to go with no white Xmas in sne. Of course I hope that I am wrong. Odds certainly favor that outside of the west slope of the Berkshires near Mitch and Norfolk, CT where they should rack up some nice upslope. But at least we have a shot with this ULL. Could be worse I suppose. It should feel like winter anyway with colder temps and maybe some flurries around if we can't manage to hit paydirt on a ULL going over us or south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 So long as it's not foggy and raining on Christmas Eve / Day I could care less if it snow's around here or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 So long as it's not foggy and raining on Christmas Eve / Day I could care less if it snow's around here or not. It won't matter with Rudolph's nose so bright. He'll guide the sleigh that night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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