ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yeah you can see a little burst of low level warm advection. If you look at teh 18z NAM BUFKIT soundings it had virtually all the lift under 900 mb focused near 925 mb. That ain't giving you snow in this atmosphere. How high up was it saturated? You can get snow with lift below the DGZ as long as above is saturated...you end up with a seeder-feeder mechanism. Usually where we are we need it saturated up to around -6C or -7C or so...we can get away with a little warmer since we have so much salt condensation nuclei which can form ice crystals at warmer temps. But if its only saturated up to like -4C or something and above 850mb is all dry...then we end up with freezing drizzle or just plain drizzle if the sfc is too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 How high up was it saturated? You can get snow with lift below the DGZ as long as above is saturated...you end up with a seeder-feeder mechanism. Usually where we are we need it saturated up to around -6C or -7C or so...we can get away with a little warmer since we have so much salt condensation nuclei which can form ice crystals at warmer temps. But if its only saturated up to like -4C or something and above 850mb is all dry...then we end up with freezing drizzle or just plain drizzle if the sfc is too warm. I posted a BUFKIT grab. Yeah if you can get the seeder-feeder kicking in you can go SN with low level omega in relatively mild conditions. The BUFKIT profiles just weren't good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 First and Final guess Ct tr-2 from south to north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Its the low level isentropic lift...its like when the 1/21 storm last winter produced that band down ont he south coast even though the best mid-level lift was north. The leading southern vort actually displaces the baroclinic zone a bit south ahead of the northern stream. So it ends up producing the best upglide south of where you normally might see it. It definitely looks a little quirky, though I wouldn't expect this system to look very traditional if we keep seeing the two vortmaxes disjointed. yes, this is correct - the cold dome is well entrenched; sometimes riding the jet max over the top of a llv +pp will excite that because there's inflow channeling aloft that gets lifted over said dome. But the NAM has been moving that v-max along a more S or N track with continuity issues, so - That said, the V-max actually move close to an ALB-MHT line, and forcing lift is actually a decent fit withing this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I posted a BUFKIT grab. Yeah if you can get the seeder-feeder kicking in you can go SN with low level omega in relatively mild conditions. The BUFKIT profiles just weren't good at all. Thats an ugly one for BDL you posted...it actually has a little warm layer above 0C at 900mb...which makes the other stuff irrelevant. Just checked the ORH BUFKIT, it would have snow as it is saturated ot near -10C...but the omega is not impressive. It would be inefficient flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 First and Final guess Ct tr-2 from south to north . Bring on the gfs and then the king. Sounds like the nam is doin what the euro did a couple days ago with the north vort goin nw and the weak southern one sliding s of us. I remember eddugs "mentioning" that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yeah and it was more focused to my south so someone in a favored spot down toward like South Berne or Huntersland might have doubled my snow amount. It looked pretty sweet up on the escarpment this afternoon. Similar in the Berkshires earlier in the day. Just flurries in the gap down in the HV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Here is the 00z NAM ORH cross section...inside the green is where we are saturated...the red is the lift and you can see its weak. You can see the temp isotherms in the backround as well...You can see how it would probably be snow with the lift getting into the SG region which is just barely saturated at the bottom of it. So it would be one of those situations where the flakes might get better when a slightly better burst of omega goes overhead and back to crap flake when it doesnt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Gfs at 48hrs puts in through the grinder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 At 54 hrs only preciep is in upstate ny. Perhaps some lighter stuff in sne. I'm off sv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 At 54 hrs only preciep is in upstate ny. Perhaps some lighter stuff in sne. I'm off sv There's light precip both at 54 and 60h in SNE, but its pretty paltry...mostly less than 0.10" total...W MA might be near 0.10" If the GFS was accurate, I probably wouldn't go more than a coating to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 That was just horrific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 RGEM is still surprisingly amped...it is involving the S stream still. Hard to believe it though with both the NAM/GFS saying no...and as well as the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 There's light precip both at 54 and 60h in SNE, but its pretty paltry...mostly less than 0.10" total...W MA might be near 0.10" If the GFS was accurate, I probably wouldn't go more than a coating to an inch. Hopefully you can get some flakes out of it. The trend today has been brutal down here. Mood flakes on xmass can go a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Well we're down to about .1" on the GFS. Hopefully it doesn't devolve into flurries by tomorrow's runs. LOL I'd still take an inch for early xmas morning. At 54 hrs only preciep is in upstate ny. Perhaps some lighter stuff in sne. I'm off sv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Hopefully you can get some flakes out of it. The trend today has been brutal down here. Mood flakes on xmass can go a long way. I'd be shocked if there werent flakes out of it. I think there will probably be an inch or two actually. But if it keeps trending worse, then that will have to be reconsidered. The most putrid runs are still giving like an inch or at least half an inch. Its too bad the southern vort is not involved...that kills southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I'd be shocked if there werent flakes out of it. I think there will probably be an inch or two actually. But if it keeps trending worse, then that will have to be reconsidered. The most putrid runs are still giving like an inch or at least half an inch. Its too bad the southern vort is not involved...that kills southern areas. Yeah the 00z euro last night was a weenie run here. Lol. Oh well. Hopefully next weekends threat treats us well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Still can't believe the turn of events in the models since earlier today. I'd be happy with an inch at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Still can't believe the turn of events in the models since earlier today. I'd be happy with an inch at this point. It's not just these few storms either, the pattern blows in early-January now too. We're not changing towards anything much better. We have a few day period of more interesting weather and then back to the gradient crap. That said I didn't think the NAM looked that bad. We should see at least falling snow in SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Dry begets dry for christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Euro looks pretty similar to 12z...still pretty crappy...at least it didn't get any worse. Probably about an inch in a lot of spots. Best chances in the western half of SNE where it looks like qpf is slightly better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Well, it could be worse folks. It could be sprinkles and light showers instead of flurries and mood snow. 25.2/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 BOX still with 1-4" for much of SNE...hmmmm. Moisture starved....how we getting that much precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 BOX still with 1-4" for much of SNE...hmmmm. Moisture starved....how we getting that much precip? I didn't see 1-4, but from their AFD, I see they're riding the KFS for Mt. Tolland saying his area's is best location for 2-3". I'm expecting less than an inch here at the Pit. If I can muster more than the .2" I got yesterday, I'll consider it a win. 24.7/16, still a little breezy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Well, it could be worse folks. It could be sprinkles and light showers instead of flurries and mood snow. 25.2/16 okx has now taken out any mention of snow here, light rain tomorrow night and Christmas morning. BL too warm, as I discussed yesterday. Ready for spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 We'll take it and we'll run...Merry White Christmas to all and to all a good night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Where is the cold by the way? 36 degrees here, this weekend was supposed to finally be cold? We can't even get down to freezing lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 Congrats everyone..Even LL sees snow!! EVAPORATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT SUGGESTS A START AS MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW THROUGHOUT...WITH SOME MIXING OF RAIN OVER SE MASS /PARTICULARLY CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS/ AS SOME WARMER AIR WRAPS IN AFTER SUNRISE. CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOW THE BEST FORCING AND QPF...SO EXPECTING HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH NRN CT...ALONG THE MASS PIKE AND INTO NRN RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Where is the cold by the way? 36 degrees here, this weekend was supposed to finally be cold? We can't even get down to freezing lol. Don't worry, it's just 7 days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Don't worry, it's just 7 days away! Well, the wind chill's in the teens. Does that count? 24.4/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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