ChrisM Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Does not look that bad for the folks down in Mass and CT but it's going to allow that 12/27 or whatever storm to rip west IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Does not look that bad for the folks down in Mass and CT. I know, not sure what model people are looking at.Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Just don't be mostly rain for ski resorts, is all I ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 NAM def looks a bit more symmetric at 00z than the 18z massive WAA punch. Its not going to be a 4-6" event with the two vortmaxes disconnected, but a 1-3" event is very possible Does look ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Probably 1-2" for CT?RI/SEMA north of 95 with a possible weenie spot of 2-3"? I think that would be a nice Christmas gift for a lot of the CT/RI/SEMA posters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Looks like the 00z NAM is executing a dark psychological experiment on the posting community of Amerian's New England snow humpers - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 . I know, not sure what model people are looking at. Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Its Weaker and south of 18z, I don't see any precip or very little and i was close to .25" on the 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Do not know why Ryan LOLed but 1 inch works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Just don't be mostly rain for ski resorts, is all I ask Christmas wont be a rain event for the ski resorts. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Looks like the 00z NAM is executing a dark psychological experiment on the posting community of Amerian's New England snow humpers - huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Christmas wont be a rain event for the ski resorts. Lol And it won't be snow either unless they are making it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Christmas wont be a rain event for the ski resorts. Lol Yeah, wrong thread for the 12/27 event. Christmas is likely all snow unless you are down on the south coast or maybe the south shore right on the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I think he's talking about the 12/27 component now looking like possible snow? 84 hours out though... Lol. Is that what you got from that. Weenie goggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 NAM looked good for us on the Cape and Islands, don't know about any bl issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 NAM looked good for us on the Cape and Islands, don't know about any bl issues. Pretty mild there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Lol. Is that what you got from that. Weenie goggles. I was being a jerk to see who would buy it but then I felt bad and deleted it lol. Cut'er up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 bl issues on the south coast abound, looks like wet snow/mix non accumulating on that particular namrod run I would say i84 would be a nice spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 NAM doesn't make much sense. How is it generating precip with all the good dynamics north? That's just pure isentropic lift? It looks like it's generating too much QPF in an unfavorable area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 NAM looked good for us on the Cape and Islands, don't know about any bl issues. Pretty torched in the 900-950mb levels. 2.5 to 3.5C for mvy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 NAM doesn't make much sense. How is it generating precip with all the good dynamics north? That's just pure isentropic lift? It looks like it's generating too much QPF in an unfavorable area. You said what I was about to say, the 500 vort is way west and north, basically in Toronto. I would imagine it is simply overrunning or lifting, exactly why if we had a high in place to the north to enhance the overrunning this event would have some potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 You said what I was about to say, the 500 vort is way west and north, basically in Toronto. I would imagine it is simply overrunning or lifting, exactly why if we had a high in place to the north to enhance the overrunning this event would have some potential. s/w does track over like Albany though by 18z Tuesday. Big precip type issues I think south of the Pike. Even with a cold "look" most of that omega that's producing the precip is very very low... below 850mb. Looks like a very shallow layer of warm advection wayyyy underneath the SGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 You said what I was about to say, the 500 vort is way west and north, basically in Toronto. I would imagine it is simply overrunning or lifting, exactly why if we had a high in place to the north to enhance the overrunning this event would have some potential. It has pretty good low level frontogenesis at 950mb right on the pike, but it seems like it's the NAM loving to throw high QPF in areas where it doesn't always happen that way. It may be right, but it's a little puzzling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 It has pretty good low level frontogenesis at 950mb right on the pike, but it seems like it's the NAM loving to throw high QPF in areas where it doesn't always happen that way. It may be right, but it's a little puzzling. Yeah... I wrote LOL for the NAM with the weenie QPF. That probably is a period of 34F sheet drizzle coming in off the coast while Kevin is toaster bathing hugging his -3C 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Its the low level isentropic lift...its like when the 1/21 storm last winter produced that band down ont he south coast even though the best mid-level lift was north. The leading southern vort actually displaces the baroclinic zone a bit south ahead of the northern stream. So it ends up producing the best upglide south of where you normally might see it. It definitely looks a little quirky, though I wouldn't expect this system to look very traditional if we keep seeing the two vortmaxes disjointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Looks like a fluffy inch or two here anyway. But already 1.5" here today from LES so whiteness is in place. s/w does track over like Albany though by 18z Tuesday. Big precip type issues I think south of the Pike. Even with a cold "look" most of that omega that's producing the precip is very very low... below 850mb. Looks like a very shallow layer of warm advection wayyyy underneath the SGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Its the low level isentropic lift...its like when the 1/21 storm last winter produced that band down ont he south coast even though the best mid-level lift was north. The leading southern vort actually displaces the baroclinic zone a bit south ahead of the northern stream. So it ends up producing the best upglide south of where you normally might see it. It definitely looks a little quirky, though I wouldn't expect this system to look very traditional if we keep seeing the two vortmaxes disjointed. Yeah maybe it's just residual effects by the southern vort. It could be right...just seemed a little odd. If the moisture is there and 950 is cold enough, it is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Its the low level isentropic lift...its like when the 1/21 storm last winter produced that band down ont he south coast even though the best mid-level lift was north. The leading southern vort actually displaces the baroclinic zone a bit south ahead of the northern stream. So it ends up producing the best upglide south of where you normally might see it. It definitely looks a little quirky, though I wouldn't expect this system to look very traditional if we keep seeing the two vortmaxes disjointed. Yeah you can see a little burst of low level warm advection. If you look at teh 18z NAM BUFKIT soundings it had virtually all the lift under 900 mb focused near 925 mb. That ain't giving you snow in this atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Bed time for this weenie--I hope the remainding 00z models show a heck of a lot more promisie than this NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Looks like a fluffy inch or two here anyway. But already 1.5" here today from LES so whiteness is in place. It looked pretty sweet up on the escarpment this afternoon. Similar in the Berkshires earlier in the day. Just flurries in the gap down in the HV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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