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Can we salvage a White Christmas in SNE?


Damage In Tolland

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NAM doesn't make much sense. How is it generating precip with all the good dynamics north? That's just pure isentropic lift? It looks like it's generating too much QPF in an unfavorable area.

You said what I was about to say, the 500 vort is way west and north, basically in Toronto. I would imagine it is simply overrunning or lifting, exactly why if we had a high in place to the north to enhance the overrunning this event would have some potential.

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You said what I was about to say, the 500 vort is way west and north, basically in Toronto. I would imagine it is simply overrunning or lifting, exactly why if we had a high in place to the north to enhance the overrunning this event would have some potential.

s/w does track over like Albany though by 18z Tuesday.

Big precip type issues I think south of the Pike. Even with a cold "look" most of that omega that's producing the precip is very very low... below 850mb. Looks like a very shallow layer of warm advection wayyyy underneath the SGZ.

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You said what I was about to say, the 500 vort is way west and north, basically in Toronto. I would imagine it is simply overrunning or lifting, exactly why if we had a high in place to the north to enhance the overrunning this event would have some potential.

It has pretty good low level frontogenesis at 950mb right on the pike, but it seems like it's the NAM loving to throw high QPF in areas where it doesn't always happen that way. It may be right, but it's a little puzzling.

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It has pretty good low level frontogenesis at 950mb right on the pike, but it seems like it's the NAM loving to throw high QPF in areas where it doesn't always happen that way. It may be right, but it's a little puzzling.

Yeah... I wrote LOL for the NAM with the weenie QPF. That probably is a period of 34F sheet drizzle coming in off the coast while Kevin is toaster bathing hugging his -3C 850mb.

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Its the low level isentropic lift...its like when the 1/21 storm last winter produced that band down ont he south coast even though the best mid-level lift was north.

The leading southern vort actually displaces the baroclinic zone a bit south ahead of the northern stream. So it ends up producing the best upglide south of where you normally might see it. It definitely looks a little quirky, though I wouldn't expect this system to look very traditional if we keep seeing the two vortmaxes disjointed.

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Looks like a fluffy inch or two here anyway. But already 1.5" here today from LES so whiteness is in place.

s/w does track over like Albany though by 18z Tuesday.

Big precip type issues I think south of the Pike. Even with a cold "look" most of that omega that's producing the precip is very very low... below 850mb. Looks like a very shallow layer of warm advection wayyyy underneath the SGZ.

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Its the low level isentropic lift...its like when the 1/21 storm last winter produced that band down ont he south coast even though the best mid-level lift was north.

The leading southern vort actually displaces the baroclinic zone a bit south ahead of the northern stream. So it ends up producing the best upglide south of where you normally might see it. It definitely looks a little quirky, though I wouldn't expect this system to look very traditional if we keep seeing the two vortmaxes disjointed.

Yeah maybe it's just residual effects by the southern vort. It could be right...just seemed a little odd. If the moisture is there and 950 is cold enough, it is possible.

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Its the low level isentropic lift...its like when the 1/21 storm last winter produced that band down ont he south coast even though the best mid-level lift was north.

The leading southern vort actually displaces the baroclinic zone a bit south ahead of the northern stream. So it ends up producing the best upglide south of where you normally might see it. It definitely looks a little quirky, though I wouldn't expect this system to look very traditional if we keep seeing the two vortmaxes disjointed.

Yeah you can see a little burst of low level warm advection. If you look at teh 18z NAM BUFKIT soundings it had virtually all the lift under 900 mb focused near 925 mb. That ain't giving you snow in this atmosphere.

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