dryslot Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I was out for the 18z runs...they came in kind of ugly, but not disastrous for Christmas. I'm surprised at all the bridge jumping. I don't know why being over 3 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I don't know why being over 4 days out Well this thread (Xmas morning) is 60 hours out now. The other threat...yeah still some time on that. But even the ugly solutions are giving like an inch of snow...we were just dying for this 2 days ago. I think some set the expectation at like 5 or 6"...bar set high...disappoint follows most of the time. I do think this will end up being OK. I was saying I think someone will get a weenie 3-4" in a band...but who knows, maybe that thought it looking a bit less likely at the moment. Still I wouldn't bridge jump on this one yet unless you were expecting 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I'm about to rip out that Pitfall gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Well this thread (Xmas morning) is 60 hours out now. The other threat...yeah still some time on that. But even the ugly solutions are giving like an inch of snow...we were just dying for this 2 days ago. I think some set the expectation at like 5 or 6"...bar set high...disappoint follows most of the time. I do think this will end up being OK. I was saying I think someone will get a weenie 3-4" in a band...but who knows, maybe that thought it looking a bit less likely at the moment. Still I wouldn't bridge jump on this one yet unless you were expecting 6". I realized after i posted that i was in the wrong thread......lol, Bouncing back and forth, Still being over 2 1/2 days out with all the moving parts, This could all come together just as fast it went the other direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I'm about to rip out that Pitfall gif lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I'm about to rip out that Pitfall gif Do it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 18z was pretty lousy. Crappy boundary layer here, and all disjointed. An inch or two for the interior though. We still have 60hrs so we can hope the nrn stream s/w comes in stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I realized after i posted that i was in the wrong thread......lol, Bouncing back and forth, Still being over 2 1/2 days out with all the moving parts, This could all come together just as fast it went the other direction It tends to happen these little events too...they are not easy to predict...models will show a tenth of qpf and then we see a stripe of 4". Sometimes they really blow up on us at the last minute...other times they are just ugly coatings choking out a few flakes with bad dynamics...but its certianly not uncommon to see some twists and turns in the final 3 days before these events. In the end you have a little negatively tilted trough running into a cold airmass, so always bears a bit of watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 From Boston.com (oops!) And this had a 6PM time-stamp! A cold and blustery day across the region is certainly feeling like winter. It appears as though we will look like winter here Christmas morning with a quick shot of snow. A weak storm is going to approach the area Christmas eve and rapidly push offshore Christmas morning. With cold air in place snow will break out across the area after midnight about the time Santa is arriving. The snow should be ending by noon Christmas day. Right now I am looking at a plowable storm for much of southern New England. Amounts could range from 2 to 6 inches with lesser amounts as you move into southern New Hampshire. Of course, I will update the forecast over the weekend and give more details tomorrow. Suffice to say, it may be a white Christmas after a very mild December thus far. Read more of my forecast updates on Twitter at @growingwisdom and feel free to ask me any questions or give feedback and comments there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 That looks like the 12z GFS map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 That looks like the 12z GFS map. Yeah... I wonder if he submitted it early and the editors or whoever sent it later... He also posted another map Wonder what Darned Gosh EXcuse for a map it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 From the FWIW file... the 18z NAM is virtually all PL/ZR here in Ct. Virtually no moisture above the -8c isotherm lol. Big swing from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 FWIW the SREFs aren't half bad. It's not like the global runs last night, but most members have measurable for many. The vort max on a few of those members is pretty potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 FWIW the SREFs aren't half bad. It's not like the global runs last night, but most members have measurable for many. The vort max on a few of those members is pretty potent. I forgot the mandatory **The SREFs blow past 36hrs+** disclaimer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 On cell but is nam a little better? I'd rather have low south early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 At a bat mitzvah and somewhat drunk. On my wife's phone with 5% left and I forgot mine at home. F. U. Ck. let's see what 0z brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 At a bat mitzvah and somewhat drunk. On my wife's phone with 5% left and I forgot mine at home. F. U. Ck. let's see what 0z brings. Oh that sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 FWIW the SREFs aren't half bad. It's not like the global runs last night, but most members have measurable for many. The vort max on a few of those members is pretty potent. It's funny how separate the models are keeping the shortwaves now. From the 00z GFS to now it's quite a bit different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Its definitely further south early on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Open wave at 48, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Its definitely further south early on the critical feature is the northern stream vort... it's actually more north, less amped and separate from the southern stream vort on this run, even compared to 18z... hence less interaction and the surface reflection is a sheared out weaker system i know it's the NAM, but the northern stream vort is farther north even by 30h drink on Jerry, drink on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 the critical feature is the northern stream vort... it's actually more north, less amped and separate from the southern stream vort on this run, even compared to 18z... hence less interaction and the surface reflection is a sheared out weaker system i know it's the NAM, but the northern stream vort is farther north even by 30h drink on Jerry, drink on Well 18z had the northern vort @1008mb and over Western NY, 0z has it 1012mb and in NW PA, If you want to split hairs with the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 lol at the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 lol at the NAM flurries and sprinkles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 flurries and sprinkles? watch what it's gonna do for storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Some flakes Christmas morning inland. 0.1-0.2" or so I guess of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 watch what it's gonna do for storm 2 Oh it would go way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Does not look that bad for the folks down in Mass and CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 NAM def looks a bit more symmetric at 00z than the 18z massive WAA punch. Its not going to be a 4-6" event with the two vortmaxes disconnected, but a 1-3" event is very possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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