CT Rain Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS is going to be quite warm and west with wave 2 it appears. Never like a low strengthening as it rips toward KBNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 ya the writing is almost on the wall here. gfs trending in line w/ euro check. nam trending toward euro check. 2'nd system still worth watching bc track is def not nailed down good thing gfs has precip overnite other wise i think mixing issues would be common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 ya the writing is almost on the wall here. gfs trending in line w/ euro check. nam trending toward euro check. 2'nd system still worth watching bc track is def not nailed down good thing gfs has precip overnite other wise i think mixing issues would be common. Euro was a complete weenie run last night. It sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Is CT Blizz staying with 3-6 with lollis to 4-8? What about JB for Xmas? Groundhog/Charlie brown winter continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 lol ya euro was a great run last nite. 1 good run out of 10 for someone on CP. it also had 1'st wave more impressive than it does now, like i said at the end of that post, def worth watching euro tonite (obviously) but it seems that most can see the first wave trending weaker, maybe it's sampled better now ? if gfs or nam was amping the first wave more i'd have alot more hope for euro..l. but we still have 24 -36 hours for some changes just hard to be optomistic when most models are trending weaker and milder on first wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 My snowfall forecast had a bunch of SNE in a 4-6" range away from the coastline, guess that will bust if the trend doesn't stop getting worse. I still think the clipper trends southward again and takes a NJ to BM track intensifying rapidly as passes by our region due to the Gulf Stream eddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wow Taunton already put out a forecast...must be pressured to put it out sooner being that its Xmas eve. Tough forecast. Bullish considering some of the trends too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wow Taunton already put out a forecast...must be pressured to put it out sooner being that its Xmas eve. Tough forecast. Bullish considering some of the trends too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 what lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 what lol A weenie would get ripped for putting out a snowfall map this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 A weenie would get ripped for putting out a snowfall map this far out Yeah I was shocked to see it. I'd take the 2" that map gives me and run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 My snowfall forecast had a bunch of SNE in a 4-6" range away from the coastline, guess that will bust if the trend doesn't stop getting worse. I still think the clipper trends southward again and takes a NJ to BM track intensifying rapidly as passes by our region due to the Gulf Stream eddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 What does BOX use to put out there 1", 4", and 8" probability maps? Anyway, still hoping for an inch or 2...Forky FTW again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Sucks that the euro is almost never wrong when it curb stomps our hopes This is so true....I always say the same thing. Once it locks on a disaster scenario...turn the lights off, take down the tree, pick up the shot gun, and head for the shed by yourself. Its only wrong when its good...lke last night, and last week....once it snaps to its sense and realizes, "oh, yes...this sucks"...bingo. 2012, don't let the door hit you on the way out....what $hit show of a meteorological calendar year. Right up there with 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 :weenie: You back home in snow covered shrewsville yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 This sucks, and it stinks...and it stinks, and it sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 You back home in snow covered shrewsville yet? Got back yesterday. Good to be back, we need some snow though. Don't go back to Plymouth until 1/27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This is so true....I always say the same thing. Once it locks on a disaster scenario...turn the lights off, take down the tree, pick up the shot gun, and head for the shed by yourself. Its only wrong when its good...lke last night, and last week....once it snaps to its sense and realizes, "oh, yes...this sucks"...bingo. 2012, don't let the door hit you on the way out....what $hit show of a meteorological calendar year. Right up there with 2010. Debbie downer...all kidding aside is what it is. If things change tonight great if not...can't say the groundhog pattern hadnt warned us. Charlie Brown winter 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Btw gun to head less than a 5% chance of 1" or more in my hood. Boston maybe 10%. Think this is a stinker on the models tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Btw gun to head less than a 5% chance of 1" or more in my hood. Boston maybe 10%. Think this is a stinker on the models tonight. Your calls for a stinker are almost as good as your '04-'05 calls..lol. Hopefully Christmas can bring an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Your calls for a stinker are almost as good as your '04-'05 calls..lol. Hopefully Christmas can bring an inch. I can't remember back that far. I've done okay the last 12 months in the face of overwhelming and deluded optimism (aside of Joe and Ryan) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Btw gun to head less than a 5% chance of 1" or more in my hood. Boston maybe 10%. Think this is a stinker on the models tonight. that bad? Ouch. Sheared out mess Good grief Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I can't remember back that far. I've done okay the last 12 months in the face of overwhelming and deluded optimism (aside of Joe and Ryan) Storm 2 was never exciting for me, but I didn't think 1-2" could be a stretch for Christmas. I hope I'm right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 that bad? Ouch. Sheared out mess Good grief There may be enough qpf but without a real storm it's not cold enough. IMHO. Hoping a trend back commences but based on 12z euro, 12z gefs, 18z nam gfs rgem that's my take. Something changed and now storm two doglegs left too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Storm 2 was never exciting for me, but I didn't think 1-2" could be a stretch for Christmas. I hope I'm right. If the models don't come back for storm 1 Xmas I'm going to be horribly disappointed. Plain truth I expected at least falling flakes prior to a change or mix. For you with the newborn...memory of a lifetime for snow the baby's first year. For me with family for similar reasons. Absolutely a punch in the gut today. I hope I am wrong I just fear something changed in how the models perceived the situation and it turned these two systems to junk. Likewise if storm 1 rebounds I expect storm 2 to shift more favorable too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 If the models don't come back for storm 1 Xmas I'm going to be horribly disappointed. Plain truth I expected at least falling flakes prior to a change or mix. For you with the newborn...memory of a lifetime for snow the baby's first year. For me with family for similar reasons. Absolutely a punch in the gut today. I hope I am wrong I just fear something changed in how the models perceived the situation and it turned these two systems to junk. Likewise if storm 1 rebounds I expect storm 2 to shift more favorable too. Even to this professional met, that's how I feel. I had visions with my son and the snow...as well as the holidays. The hits in the gut keep coming, and it stinks. I hope models come back a little tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 If the models don't come back for storm 1 Xmas I'm going to be horribly disappointed. Plain truth I expected at least falling flakes prior to a change or mix. For you with the newborn...memory of a lifetime for snow the baby's first year. For me with family for similar reasons. Absolutely a punch in the gut today. I hope I am wrong I just fear something changed in how the models perceived the situation and it turned these two systems to junk. Likewise if storm 1 rebounds I expect storm 2 to shift more favorable too. I always expected 1-2 from this is the 2nd storm that sucks.Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I was out for the 18z runs...they came in kind of ugly, but not disastrous for Christmas. I'm surprised at all the bridge jumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I was out for the 18z runs...they came in kind of ugly, but not disastrous for Christmas. I'm surprised at all the bridge jumping. yeah, I don't get it either.Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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