CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 There's only so much model breakdown you can do Kevin because two things happen. It becomes pointless when you are beyond 5 days out, and weenies will add dumb comments anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It blows. 12z 25th it's now got nothing going on in almost all of SNE aside of extreme eastern areas where it's a bit warm. Earlier it had all of us covered in good precip. It's just further north. A good part of SNE gets dryslotted, but it's not the deamplified sheared mess the Euro had. Quite a potent vort max actually, which keeps me interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 I think if you want snow on the coast you'd better hope this thing is less amped like the euro. If it's amped up..you ain't snowing. Inland it's a matter of whether we get 1-3 or 3-6.. Either way is fine with me..Snow on Xmas is going to be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It's just further north. A good part of SNE gets dryslotted, but it's not the deamplified sheared mess the Euro had. Quite a potent vort max actually, which keeps me interested Rips the s/w right through VT/NH/ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 850 line ORH to dorchesta at 12z xmas. this run (which is still out there for nam) has dusting to inch bos- framingham-hartford 1inch tolland to s. worcester to ray 2 inches interior SNH back toward athol -mrg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 ct rain for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I think if you want snow on the coast you'd better hope this thing is less amped like the euro. If it's amped up..you ain't snowing. Inland it's a matter of whether we get 1-3 or 3-6.. Either way is fine with me..Snow on Xmas is going to be nice What happened to 4-8"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I think if you want snow on the coast you'd better hope this thing is less amped like the euro. If it's amped up..you ain't snowing. Inland it's a matter of whether we get 1-3 or 3-6.. Either way is fine with me..Snow on Xmas is going to be nice Well SNE (and really anybody I think) wants this northern s/w to dig more, and be able to phase with the southern energy. That will help develop a low further southwest, organize the precip field, and draw colder air south. In this case it's the northern s/w just going solo. It's a potent enough vort to drop a good area of light snow, mainly north of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It's just further north. A good part of SNE gets dryslotted, but it's not the deamplified sheared mess the Euro had. Had a long comment typed but as usually this forum blows with IE10 and crashed. At this time range I think you'd take the Euro over the NAM. I don't like that the NAM resembled the Euro roughly in the first 24-36 hours in keeping the s/w separate without as much phasing. What the NAM does later on...well that's likely just the NAM. Confluence is going to chew this thing up I think....so I don't really buy the northern NAM solution at this point in time. I think it's more likely the northern s/w gets demolished and we see something towards the Euro, but hopefully not to that extreme. It's an 18z model it's all we have to talk about in the interim...I haven't given up yet and won't until the 0z run is complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 LOL.... ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 ct rain for all verbatim, ct dryslot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 verbatim, ct dryslot That'd still produce 3-6" higher elevations. Upslope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Had a long comment typed but as usually this forum blows with IE10 and crashed. At this time range I think you'd take the Euro over the NAM. I don't like that the NAM resembled the Euro roughly in the first 24-36 hours in keeping the s/w separate without as much phasing. What the NAM does later on...well that's likely just the NAM. Confluence is going to chew this thing up I think....so I don't really buy the northern NAM solution at this point in time. I think it's more likely the northern s/w gets demolished and we see something towards the Euro, but hopefully not to that extreme. It's an 18z model it's all we have to talk about in the interim...I haven't given up yet and won't until the 0z run is complete. It's more complicated than just saying there's confluence to the northeast ... look at the distribution of vorticity to our north -- classic confluence that we know and love / hate is featured mostly by shear vorticity as heights are suppressed southwest of a large vortex ... In this case we also have embedded spokes in the vortex that add a pattern of curvature vorticity. Timing the interaction between our shortwave of interest and the spokes in the vortex is crucial because s/w ridging can build between the spokes ... in which case the confluence you're worried about is less dominating. The evolution of these spokes is crucial I'd also like to mention that I do not put much stock in the NAM at this range, and at the same time, I'm not putting much stock in the 12z Euro ... or any model guidance right now for that matter. Just watch and enjoy the winding road for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 It's more complicated than just saying there's confluence to the northeast ... look at the distribution of vorticity to our north -- classic confluence that we know and love / hate is featured mostly by shear vorticity as heights are suppressed southwest of a large vortex ... In this case we also have embedded spokes in the vortex that add a pattern of curvature vorticity. Timing the interaction between our shortwave of interest and the spokes in the vortex is crucial because s/w ridging can build between the spokes ... in which case the confluence you're worried about is less dominating. The evolution of these spokes is crucial I'd also like to mention that I do not put much stock in the NAM at this range, and at the same time, I'm not putting much stock in the 12z Euro ... or any model guidance right now for that matter. Just watch and enjoy the winding road for now I think really it boils down to this for most. If you had to put it all on the line....do we get a White Christmas in SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 For those who want EC ens QPF.... 0.05" line RUT-LEB-PSM 0.10" line PSF-BAF-PVD-GHG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It's more complicated than just saying there's confluence to the northeast ... look at the distribution of vorticity to our north -- classic confluence that we know and love / hate is featured mostly by shear vorticity as heights are suppressed southwest of a large vortex ... In this case we also have embedded spokes in the vortex that add a pattern of curvature vorticity. Timing the interaction between our shortwave of interest and the spokes in the vortex is crucial because s/w ridging can build between the spokes ... in which case the confluence you're worried about is less dominating. The evolution of these spokes is crucial I'd also like to mention that I do not put much stock in the NAM at this range, and at the same time, I'm not putting much stock in the 12z Euro ... or any model guidance right now for that matter. Just watch and enjoy the winding road for now I know....we were both discussing 2 model runs. The gfs is usually decent with s/w handling. If the 18z gfs hangs on the nam gets tossed and I'd weight the gfs heavier than the euro. We will see what happens. Normally the models will tweak these features stronger as they exit the Rockies which we wouldn't see until later tonight or Sunday anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 850 line ORH to dorchesta at 12z xmas. this run (which is still out there for nam) has dusting to inch bos- framingham-hartford 1inch tolland to s. worcester to ray 2 inches interior SNH back toward athol -mrg I'll be happy if I can muster 2". That meets the 'white' definition, even if not the amount everyone hopes for. It's more complicated than just saying there's confluence to the northeast ... look at the distribution of vorticity to our north -- classic confluence that we know and love / hate is featured mostly by shear vorticity as heights are suppressed southwest of a large vortex ... In this case we also have embedded spokes in the vortex that add a pattern of curvature vorticity. Timing the interaction between our shortwave of interest and the spokes in the vortex is crucial because s/w ridging can build between the spokes ... in which case the confluence you're worried about is less dominating. The evolution of these spokes is crucial I'd also like to mention that I do not put much stock in the NAM at this range, and at the same time, I'm not putting much stock in the 12z Euro ... or any model guidance right now for that matter. Just watch and enjoy the winding road for now Signature worthy statement there, Sam. p.s. when the hell are you going to put out a map???? (j/k) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I think really it boils down to this for most. If you had to put it all on the line....do we get a White Christmas in SNE? If a White Christmas is measurable snow on the ground, then yes for most of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It's more complicated than just saying there's confluence to the northeast ... look at the distribution of vorticity to our north -- classic confluence that we know and love / hate is featured mostly by shear vorticity as heights are suppressed southwest of a large vortex ... In this case we also have embedded spokes in the vortex that add a pattern of curvature vorticity. Timing the interaction between our shortwave of interest and the spokes in the vortex is crucial because s/w ridging can build between the spokes ... in which case the confluence you're worried about is less dominating. The evolution of these spokes is crucial I'd also like to mention that I do not put much stock in the NAM at this range, and at the same time, I'm not putting much stock in the 12z Euro ... or any model guidance right now for that matter. Just watch and enjoy the winding road for now Good post. No need to jump off a cliff yet, but for those making a public forecast, this is a nightmare scenario considering it falls on Xmas Eve and Day. It's easier for us to sit back, discuss the possibilities, and let it play out one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 If a White Christmas is measurable snow on the ground, then yes for most of SNE. That a boy Sammy . You just made someone worrying their panties off in the state of Mass very happyIn all seriousness though, I always understood the true definition of white Christmas as having at least 1 inch OTG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Good post. No need to jump off a cliff yet, but for those making a public forecast, this is a nightmare scenario considering it falls on Xmas Eve and Day. It's easier for us to sit back, discuss the possibilities, and let it play out one way or another. This looks like one of those scenarios that could just as easily feature no more than a few scattered snow showers or develop strong banding that drops a quick 6" in eastern MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Consider this. This storm has a tight potent vort max. It's also a fast mover ... If we take a look at storm-relative streamlines, these two characteristics together reveals a strong easterly conveyor belt. The trick will be to tap into the southern energy for moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 18z gfs a lot like euro for xmass. Bl is torch for south coast. Perhaps a inch around the pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 .10+ for sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS is lousy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS has trended much, much weaker. More in line with other models. Looks like a rain/snow light mix south of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 18z gfs a lot like euro for xmass. Bl is torch for south coast. Perhaps a inch around the pike It's more like the nam...best qpf in sne NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Sucks that the euro is almost never wrong when it curb stomps our hopes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Further north then 12z but much weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Sucks that the euro is almost never wrong when it curb stomps our hopes Canadian started that trend last night, first to sniff it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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