Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It's no longer fun seeing peoples moods change every 6hrs with every model run that comes out. I think it's awesome and the I told you so posts are too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Is it the shortwave spacing that is wreaking havoc? The biggest issue ont he Euro was the northenr vort and southenr vort remaining seperate every step of the way...looked kind of wierd because they were almost following eachother parallel the whole way. Usually you'll see at least some phasing there. The phasing acts to really amplify the northern stream southward...didn't happen that run. There's other smaller issues...complex little system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'm never seeing snow again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 what did the gfs ens show? The e wall isn't working for me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I think it's awesome and the I told you so posts are too. If the spiking the ball 3 days in advance weenie posts are all good then doing the iggy shuffle after a 98 yard interception return on a euro toaster bath is all good too. Gefs weren't too hot with storm 1 either. Euro blows. Ens probably no better? We will see tonight 18z and 0z most important runs of this b'ak'tun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 lol at this thread, always the same when one model run goes bad. Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 what did the gfs ens show? The e wall isn't working for me? S NJ to Cape cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 S NJ to Cape cod. so I guess not too bad? I'll take anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 so I guess not too bad? I'll take anything. F that track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 F that track yeah doesn't sound great for you and I'm just guessing that it would be cold enough for me, im going to try to load the psu site again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The WSI RPM model shows it so amped that it rains to the MA border, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 S NJ to Cape cod. GEFS Mean barely tickles Cape Cod/south coast with the .25" line through 72 hours. It's more surpressed than the OP but that's not a big surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 lol at this thread, always the same when one model run goes bad. Using IPad or IPhone or BB so my grammar may suck. One bad model run? This winter has picked up right where last winter left off. " pattern is going to change after this date or that date. Storm is 10+ days out, looks great IF it ever shows, inside of 48 hours its rain. Cold shows after the storm, ground has no frost zero snowpack and the last snow storms--if they can be can be called that stay 50 miles south of Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro ensembles are a bit more robust than the OP...can't see qpf but looking at the pressure fields its noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 NAM weaker off the bat out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro ensembles are a bit more robust than the OP...can't see qpf but looking at the pressure fields its noticeable. Marginally IMO. Nothing really jumping out at me on the 72H ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 NAM at 18z is going to be flatter I think. I could be wrong but the northern s/w is quite a bit weaker right away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro ensembles are a bit more robust than the OP...can't see qpf but looking at the pressure fields its noticeable. Nice..Great News!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 i know it's showtime when i get nam comparisons . i enjoy them , but just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Further north and about same amplitude through hr54. More shortwave ridging allowed downstream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Further north and about same amplitude through hr54. More shortwave ridging allowed downstream Which means there's less phasing and as a result the precip ends up falling apart much like the Euro. EDIT: Precip gets further north, but is lighter overall, and it's warmer in a good part of SNE. This is along the lines of what the Euro was doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Which means there's less phasing and as a result the precip ends up falling apart much like the Euro. Surface low is stronger over northern Ohio at hr54. Wait and see what it potentially does when it reaches the east coast baroclinic zone. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 I wish only mets woukld be allowed to break down models as they come in so folks get a good idea what is actually happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Surface low is stronger over northern Ohio at hr54. Wait and see what it potentially does when it reaches the east coast baroclinic zone. We'll see It blows. 12z 25th it's now got nothing going on in almost all of SNE aside of extreme eastern areas where it's a bit warm. Earlier it had all of us covered in good precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I wish only mets woukld be allowed to break down models as they come in so folks get a good idea what is actually happening Sam does a great job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Still as potent of a vort max, just further north, so missing the phase with the southern energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Sam does a great job. Agreed..And Sam is a met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I wish only mets woukld be allowed to break down models as they come in so folks get a good idea what is actually happening It sucks for SNE...it was kind of obvious right away it was going to come in more along the lines of the Euro with separation and therefore less of a system out underneath us that results in more warmth. It's really not that hard, you can cover your eyes to the models you don't want to wishcast on, but the 18z NAM blows compared to the 12z for many of us in SNE. If you lived up north, it's better. BTW, I kind of wish the same thing when you're tossing around 4-8" totals 3-4 days in advance. You're a jinx so far this December, you and the twitter guy...soon as it's typed the storm goes to mush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 i knew i shouldnt have told anyone that it was starting to look good for the Xmas event lol...happens every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 NAM is a pile a carp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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