40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 honestly ray , not to be funny but i like ORH to Union the best in this set up. except for the euro, there seems to be a sharp cut off just around you and N/NE. 12z gfs trended north WRT to its track in the ohio valley but then it just get shunted E ward. And one thing i hope not to see is a slight S of E contour across N mass for a sharp cutoff. Well, we know how QPF cutoffs work....the n end of them isn't usually a bad place to be....ask Dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS says enjoy it now. Nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I would not worry, that was a move north. Noting what Will mentioned about the meat grinder, in NY state vs the 6z the cutoff/shearing is more evident than the 6z. I don't want to sound selfish but we've had no snow this year. I need this to shear a bit, the GFS is as close as this can come for a favorable/snowy outcome here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hammerz_nailz Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Lowville--that's a blast from my past. My ex-wife's family has a place on Brantingham. Great spot there. Lake front, water-skiing, and lots of Genny's. Probalby as weenie as place as there is for LES. Unforunatley, we just used it for summer get aways, despite my push for winter trips. Yep ...great place live. Montague which is just outside of Lowille has the record for snow in 24 hrs. 77" jan 12th 1997 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Hate to say it..But the GFS fits my ideas on this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Hate to say it..But the GFS fits my ideas on this.. Hopefully not the next storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Hopefully not the next storm That's snow to an icestorm for Will and I..But it's tossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Hopefully not the next storm There's my track into PA. Still a good setup for CNE/NNE, will be a bit of a mess but it's better than December 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 That's snow to an icestorm for Will and I..But it's tossed LOL, verbatim that's a disaster for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 As narrow an area as it is (and unlikely to play out based on a model this far out) It looks like the new GFS pegs I-90 thorough just south of the Mass border with the best. I agree with a fairly sharp cut-off to the north, less so to the south. I'll be content with a widespred 2" in the northern extreme of Mass with lollies to 3". Can still see this ramping up more and coming a littler further north, but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GGEM coming in colder for storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Hopefully not the next storm Yeah, that blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Again being selfish but relieved to see the GGEM caving a bit more towards the redevelopment out underneath. Definitely colder this run along with the adjustments that go along with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GGEM coming in colder for storm 1 Colder and same placement or just colder because it's south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 As narrow an area as it is (and unlikely to play out based on a model this far out) It looks like the new GFS pegs I-90 thorough just south of the Mass border with the best. I agree with a fairly sharp cut-off to the north, less so to the south. I'll be content with a widespred 2" in the northern extreme of Mass with lollies to 3". Can still see this ramping up more and coming a littler further north, but not by much. Sounds good to me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GEM is a solid event...solid advisory for most of SNE...still issues down south though...but it looks less amped than that wacky 00z solution which isn't a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GEM is a solid event...solid advisory for most of SNE...still issues down south though...but it looks less amped than that wacky 00z solution which isn't a surprise. Tossing the NAM for now, but I think both the GFS and GGEM show the meatgrinder cranking a little earlier than the 6z/0z run. I like that for me. Actually need it to continue a bit more for southern areas to be safe. Right now coating to 1" change, coating to 1" backside seems reasonable here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The meat grinder will cost us 2 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 All things considered...pretty good agreement 60-72 hours out for a 3-5" event...of course TBD is if that goes up to Ray. ..southern NH...or north to Dendrite. And how far south it is all snow. From about HFD to ASH I'd say at least 2-3" is a virtual lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I hate selfish people..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I hate selfish people..lol I resemble that remark. It's snow. All boundaries of civilization are removed and its every man for himself....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 12z GFS mean is cold for system #1. 72h mean total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 12z GFS mean is cold for system #1. 72h mean total. some of that precip is from the second event... the mean looks kind of paltry at 84 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I resemble that remark. It's snow. All boundaries of civilization are removed and its every man for himself....lol lol, I will remember that on thurs............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Post apocalypse is all about me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 That's right...are we all dead in weenie heaven? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Tim Kelley seemed to be liking our odds, calling for 3-4" and figured only immediate Southern coasts would have trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Tim Kelley seemed to be liking our odds, calling for 3-4" and figured only immediate Southern coasts would have trouble. Thats about what I would go with at the moment. Probably solid advisory from N/C CT up to near the MA/NH border...some BL issues to the south of that, but they could hold onto mostly snow if we get enough of a sfc reflection to the east early enough. I could also see some weenie banding getting norht of the MA/NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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