Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 First guess this is more amped, sweet spot Berkshires ene hubb mpm southern nh de Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 NAM solutions laughable at this range, but it would not shock me for a pike north sweet spot if current models held. Just pure speculation at this point. Weenie run here, but I'm tossing it unless the 12z globals are similar. I agree with you and Ryan wrt a weenie stripe of heavier snows where the best midlevel frontogenesis sets up. Someone in the interior probably sees nice ratios out of that. You can see that favorable area where the best H7 RH hangs back. I think I'd like to be in N MA for this...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Looks like a white Christmas is guaranteed in my old stomping grounds in Lowville ... Moderate to heavy snow and blowing snow east of Lake Ontario this morning... Lowville--that's a blast from my past. My ex-wife's family has a place on Brantingham. Great spot there. Lake front, water-skiing, and lots of Genny's. Probalby as weenie as place as there is for LES. Unforunatley, we just used it for summer get aways, despite my push for winter trips. NAM solutions laughable at this range, but it would not shock me for a pike north sweet spot if current models held. Just pure speculation at this point. One (at least this one) can only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I like pike down to Ct coast as sweet spot. Very few will rain in this It could be, but current guidance has a nice weenie stripe north. It's not taking away from anyone, just saying what guidance has at the moment. Could shift south too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 It could be, but current guidance has a nice weenie stripe north. It's not taking away from anyone, just saying what guidance has at the moment. Could shift south too. Oh I thought you meant you thought rain south of pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 NAM solutions laughable at this range, but it would not shock me for a pike north sweet spot if current models held. Just pure speculation at this point. True it's the NAM, but it's never good when the cold NAM is warm (for my area). Coating to 1" on the front side, then a change/mix, then maybe a coating to an 1" on the backside. It's creeping north it seems "overall" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Oh I thought you meant you thought rain south of pike No, just playing around with max snow ideas, but I stress that it's just speculation and probably will shift a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Man Noyes is really riding the south suppressed track on this one with snow only pike south or so. Odd since he tends to weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I like the sound of this.....I had a xmas party last night and lost track of things..glad things are amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 I like the sound of this.....I had a xmas party last night and lost track of things..glad things are amped. Meet any gents? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Meet any gents? Once he showed them the spoiler of his Celica, it was all weenies.Christmas party at the Blue Oyster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 .43 here all snow on the NAM. That works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Once he showed them the spoiler of his Celica, it was all weenies.Christmas party at the Blue Oyster. Lol he showed them his spoiler, and instantly 6-8 weenies lay on top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 What clowns you guys are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Upslope machine really going to town now. Skies have darkened and snow is coming down in sheets. 1/2 to 1/4 mile visibility and moderate to heavy snow. Lets keep it going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Upslope machine really going to town now. Skies have darkened and snow is coming down in sheets. 1/2 to 1/4 mile visibility and moderate to heavy snow. Lets keep it going! Throw up some pics for us homie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Upslope machine really going to town now. Skies have darkened and snow is coming down in sheets. 1/2 to 1/4 mile visibility and moderate to heavy snow. Lets keep it going! Congrats Mitch, so nice to see flakes flying today, feels and looks like winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 Lots if good mets going for farther south idea @BigJoeBastardi: NYC 1-3 locally 5 PHL in same boat, but rain se. Mainly snow though n of I-195 nj and mason dixon line #FESTIVUSMIRACLE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I would worry about a more amped solution south of Kevin. I don't think suppression is going to be the problem on this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Lots if good mets going for farther south idea @BigJoeBastardi: NYC 1-3 locally 5 PHL in same boat, but rain se. Mainly snow though n of I-195 nj and mason dixon line #FESTIVUSMIRACLE! He is not a good met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 So, the GFS, EURO, UK and GEM give me a good 2-4"? What is the NAM, like 1-2"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Thinking this doesn't work out too well for us near the coast. NAM typically has a better handle on BL temps...and its got us going to rain pretty quickly. Still a few days out and we'll see what the rest of the 12z suite shows....but my gut says N-CT/S-MA jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 So, the GFS, EURO, UK and GEM give me a good 2-4"? What is the NAM, like 1-2"? No, the NAM has a weenie band just norht of the pike..probably 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 No, the NAM has a weenie band just norht of the pike..probably 3-5" Sick....2-4" it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinWX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 NAM is .46" in BOS at 35F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Thinking this doesn't work out too well for us near the coast. NAM typically has a better handle on BL temps...and its got us going to rain pretty quickly. Still a few days out and we'll see what the rest of the 12z suite shows....but my gut says N-CT/S-MA jackpot. Agree, think the sweet spot might even be north of that. Euro was cold, hopefully the Canadian srefs nam and 6 zgfs was a hiccup and not a trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Upslope machine really going to town now. Skies have darkened and snow is coming down in sheets. 1/2 to 1/4 mile visibility and moderate to heavy snow. Lets keep it going! congrats, Mitch. very overcast 'snow sky' with weenie flakes, but the stuff on the ground is all from the pre-dawn areas. Can see the snow to my sw impairing the view of the hills. Fairly confident we'll get a little here--the wind vector's not ideal for the pit, but it's better than most in similary setups. 27.7/20, top gust so far of 21--just 4mph shy of yesterday's high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 NAM is .46" in BOS at 35F This may be one of those deals where Logan airport is struggling with an inch or two of slop while just west on the Common or back toward Jerry near the Brookline line is 2-3F colder and snow is sticking much easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Thinking this doesn't work out too well for us near the coast. NAM typically has a better handle on BL temps...and its got us going to rain pretty quickly. Still a few days out and we'll see what the rest of the 12z suite shows....but my gut says N-CT/S-MA jackpot. Well sometimes it does I guess. Two recent events in Nov it was way too warm and we all remember Roctober. Maybe inside 36 hrs but at this lead, big ole grain of salt. It keeps the entire column for my area well below freezing then jumps surface temps up while it's precipitating 6 degrees on NNE winds. Uh doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I slept through the snow shower.... Rule of thumb in my house is to not wake dad in Saturday morning. Exception is snow but my wife heard me ranting last night so she figured plenty in the pipeline..lol. 2-6 12/25...lock it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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