ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GGEM is really amped...it tracks the low over Saki's fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GGEM is really amped...it tracks the low over Saki's fanny. Can we lock 3-6 and lollies to 8" yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GGEM is really amped...it tracks the low over Saki's fanny. Maybe is Saki farts hard enough he can push it out to sea a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 If you are thinking sonw to rain there should i be ecpecting the same here? I don't believe there's much to stop either system from trending warmer in time. I expect little/no snow down here from either system. Maybe some on the front side each time but quickly gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS is amped up with the CHristmas storm as well, dropping almost .85" of QPF over Cape COd, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I don't believe there's much to stop either system from trending warmer in time. I expect little/no snow down here from either system. Maybe some on the front side each time but quickly gone. Maybe Santa doesn't love you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Maybe Santa doesn't love you? It's been 5 degrees above normal most of the month. To expect a change so quickly is probably unrealistic. It's still far enough away that things can change and still hoping for mood flakes. The GGEM verbatim is going to put some rain/mix down on a decent chunk of SNE near the coast. The 2nd one looks pretty amped too. Come January if the pattern still features 50 degree days, I'll want to fight Santa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It's been 5 degrees above normal most of the month. To expect a change so quickly is probably unrealistic. It's still far enough away that things can change and still hoping for mood flakes. The GGEM verbatim is going to put some rain/mix down on a decent chunk of SNE near the coast. The 2nd one looks pretty amped too. Come January if the pattern still features 50 degree days, I'll want to fight Santa. Hi Joe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS ensemble mean very similar to the OP for this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS ensemble mean very similar to the OP for this system. That's a nice snow event on the GEFS for a large part of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Will it make it north of Albany? I was reading the KALB forecast discussion, they are using every model but the Euro( at least there was no mention of it) BTW-- what is the UTC? PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO PREVENT ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY FROM OCCURRING ACROSS OUR AREA...AND KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. SOME CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ALTHOUGH THE STORM CENTER LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL GET. THIS WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON WHETHER WE JUST GET SOME FLURRIES OR MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. WHILE THE GFS AND MOST OF THE 12 UTC GEFS MEMBERS BRING JUST A COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...THE ECMWF WOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL TO OUR ENTIRE AREA. AT THIS POINT...MOST MODELS DO AGREE THAT IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT ANY POTENTIAL PRECIP WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA...SO IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THERE MAY BE A BLANKET OF SNOW TO CUSHION THE LANDING OF SANTA/S SLEIGH FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH CHC POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Will it make it north of Albany? I was reading the KALB forecast discussion, they are using every model but the Euro( at least there was no mention of it) PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO PREVENT ANY LAKE EFFECT ACTIVITY FROM OCCURRING ACROSS OUR AREA...AND KEEP SKIES PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEASONABLE...WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE REGION. SOME CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ALTHOUGH THE STORM CENTER LOOKS TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY...THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL GET. THIS WOULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON WHETHER WE JUST GET SOME FLURRIES OR MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. WHILE THE GFS AND MOST OF THE 12 UTC GEFS MEMBERS BRING JUST A COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...THE ECMWF WOULD BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL TO OUR ENTIRE AREA. AT THIS POINT...MOST MODELS DO AGREE THAT IT WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT ANY POTENTIAL PRECIP WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA...SO IT/S POSSIBLE THAT THERE MAY BE A BLANKET OF SNOW TO CUSHION THE LANDING OF SANTA/S SLEIGH FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WILL GO WITH CHC POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS DAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FEFD17 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 We can only hope!!!! Man has it been miserable in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I think a lot of people got into the egg nog tonight and are passed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 saki you may have to wait for the -epo . this pattern is for the interior. IF the Coast threads a needle they can score on 27'th but i wouldn't bet on it. the 25'th seems to have some wiggle room for the coast thou. not sure about the south coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euros a lot slower vs GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euros a lot slower vs GFS. Will probably be more amped up like the GGEM then? Any link to free stuff that's quicker than WU? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Here comes the 00z Euro pretty amped again...but I think this is a tad less than the 12z run. Looking pretty good for most of SNE at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 saki you may have to wait for the -epo . this pattern is for the interior. IF the Coast threads a needle they can score on 27'th but i wouldn't bet on it. the 25'th seems to have some wiggle room for the coast thou. not sure about the south coast Battling two years of really warm ocean water too on anything big. Euro dropped SE towards the GFS for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro is also snow for 12/25 in most of sne including Boston/BDL/ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 0c 850 line is over scott's fanny on CMC at 12z xmas day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Here comes the 00z Euro pretty amped again...but I think this is a tad less than the 12z run. Looking pretty good for most of SNE at 84 hours. Looks like it dropped a lot further south to me 84/96 vs the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Now inside of 4 days. Looks like white Christmas chances are pretty high now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wow, really kind of goes to town at 90 hours...pretty solid event...prolonged over eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wow...warning event Boston! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wow, really kind of goes to town at 90 hours...pretty solid event...prolonged over eastern areas. Trowal? GFS/EURO seem to be converging. I have a hard time with the GGEM solution. Notice also how the change in storm 1 is setting up a different run at us with storm 2 on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 How far north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 How far north? Looks like about an inch of snow gets up to PWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wow...warning event Boston! And a nice 1032+ north of us for round 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 this storm has really step'd thing up over last 36 hours, i wouldn't lock anything yet (not that anyone but kev would) but one thing i noticed is a rather sharp cutoff to precip on northern edge . if i could choose one place to be for this it would be ORH lol. but it's still early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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