OKpowdah Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 This isn't making a statement endorsing a storm or no storm ... but very little stock should be put in the hr84 NAM or SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I'm sure this post will come back to haunt me once the weenies take it out of context... but I could see the 12/25 event become more impressive with a decent batch of warm advection/frontogenesis as the wave slides underneath us. What has changed in the last 48 hours or so is that instead of the wave getting sheared and sent through a meat grinder of confluence over SNE there's enough separation to actually let the s/w amplify a bit. When coupled with the natural baroclinic zone along the coast you may set up a nice little feedback and get some weenie totals on Christmas. Tough forecast though with a lot of moving parts... so nothing a lock... but there is some "up" potential to this one. Nice post. Feels greedy to think about upward potential when there is no guarentee of any snow at all, but I think you're making a good read. Only the GEFS mean is relatively suppressed south at this point. With the 18z GFS taking a half step towards the GGEM aloft, the UK and Euro moderately robust, and even the SREF bumping north, this could shape up to be a nice little light to moderate event for parts of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 This isn't making a statement endorsing a storm or no storm ... but very little stock should be put in the hr84 NAM or SREF That's breaking news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 NAM still stinks for Xmas. That could be the 00Z run of the GFS too though. On Xmas they are very similar as far as location of the low, but the GFS is a bit more generous with QPF but that's most likely because of grid spacing when it's still a few days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The NAM (and the suppressed GFS at 12z) keep the southern vortmax and northern one seperate....the other models are phasing them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 This isn't making a statement endorsing a storm or no storm ... but very little stock should be put in the hr84 NAM or SREF NAM stinks long before 84 hours. Even by 36 the differences are pretty obvious and certainly by 42/48. GFS is really ramping things up in what looks like a very fast west to east flow, JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The NAM (and the suppressed GFS at 12z) keep the southern vortmax and northern one seperate....the other models are phasing them. Yup... at least even the un-phased NAM at 00z brings some weenie flakes in here post-12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 NAM still stinks for Xmas. Sure doesn't look great on the charts. But there are some changes in the height fields, especially in southern Canada... and lots of other subtle changes. The SLP is further north this run as well, with QPF into SENY. I think it will come around tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yup... at least even the un-phased NAM at 00z brings some weenie flakes in here post-12z. Yeah the northern vortmax is very potent. I think I made the same comment when the 12z GFS came in suppressed...that potent of a vortmax always bears watching...and of course when you have the solutions that phase the southern vortmax with the northern one, we get these weenie solutions that might give 5" lollis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 This isn't making a statement endorsing a storm or no storm ... but very little stock should be put in the hr84 NAM or SREF My point was just that there's a handful of more amplified members now versus 15z where they were flat. The SREFs past 48hr definitely can do some funky things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 That could be the 00Z run of the GFS too though. On Xmas they are very similar as far as location of the low, but the GFS is a bit more generous with QPF but that's most likely because of grid spacing when it's still a few days out. Yeah not terribly far off at the surface, but I think the differences in surface pressure and QPF are largely the result of the mid/upper levels. The 18z GFS has stronger vort and sharper s/w trof than the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Yeah the northern vortmax is very potent. I think I made the same comment when the 12z GFS came in suppressed...that potent of a vortmax always bears watching...and of course when you have the solutions that phase the southern vortmax with the northern one, we get these weenie solutions that might give 5" lollis. Southern s/w drags feet just enough to not get everything together like on the 18z GFS. It's an interesting pattern so who knows...we'll see. Not sure I trust the NAM very much beyond 30 hours for subtle s/w placement. In fact I don't trust it at all. Other models will probably be on the same vein as earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 My point was just that there's a handful of more amplified members now versus 15z where they were flat. The SREFs past 48hr definitely can do some funky things. I agree it was worth a mention. Previous runs were almost universally suppressed. The 21z run had a handful of higher amplitude shortwaves and stronger, closer surface lows. Obviously not terribly useful in their own right, but maybe opens the door slightly wider for a more impactful coastal low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The RGEM at 48 hours is worlds deeper than the NAM at 500mb over the Rockies, not as sharp as the 18Z GFS but close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS looks great. Gonna be all snow for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 All of sne is snowing by the time folks awaken 12/25 per gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS converging toward Euro solution...wonder if we see the frequent 70/30 compromise or if the GFS will go all the way to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Gfs is a sne special for 12/25. 1-4 in the 3 sne states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Snow all the way to Long Island Sound/NYC? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Wow. What a Christmas miracle on the Goofy....if it happens as progged, a true rare event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Some areas may get a 4+ storm, possibly nyc suburbs. Nice banding on the northern edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 GFS converging toward Euro solution...wonder if we see the frequent 70/30 compromise or if the GFS will go all the way to the Euro. Euro hasn't exactly been stellar this fall, I'd actually expect it to cave more towards the GFS. Seems to have had an overamplification bias in this pattern. Kev's phantom wave behind the front, constantly pushing primaries far west early on only to slink east etc. We shall see tonight I'll be up watching. NAM gets tossed. Totally bunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro hasn't exactly been stellar this fall, I'd actually expect it to cave more towards the GFS. Seems to have had an overamplification bias in this pattern. Kev's phantom wave behind the front, constantly pushing primaries far west early on only to slink east etc. We shall see tonight I'll be up watching. NAM gets tossed. Totally bunk. Well we are in range right now of the Euro, so its a bit different from the massive amped 150 hours solutions it does...and the other guidance is about as amped as the Euro. My gut is it will probably be between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Well we are in range right now of the Euro, so its a bit different from the massive amped 150 hours solutions it does...and the other guidance is about as amped as the Euro. My gut is it will probably be between the two. That doesn't seem unreasonable...I expect the Euro to come SE tonight some. (barring any shifts NW from the GGEM/UK) Primarily I expect some mood flakes here and a change. I don't think I'll stay all snow here or have much in the way of accumulation at all until the Euro comes on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The Ukie at 72h looks prtety amped...unfortunately we really need to see 12 hours later, but only out to 72h right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The Ukie at 72h looks prtety amped...unfortunately we really need to see 12 hours later, but only out to 72h right now. How's the MSLP position compared to the GFS/RGEM at 48? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 How's the MSLP position compared to the GFS/RGEM at 48? Very similar to both...with that low in W Arkansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Very similar to both...with that low in W Arkansas. Yeah, that's kind of just when everything is getting together anyway. If I can SEE snow falling Xmas morning I'd be happy. I fully expect a flip to rain down this way. Not expecting much at all from event two either, just looks too warm. Hoping we can get a tick SE tonight on the EURO that's sticky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 If you are thinking sonw to rain there should i be ecpecting the same here? That doesn't seem unreasonable...I expect the Euro to come SE tonight some. (barring any shifts NW from the GGEM/UK) Primarily I expect some mood flakes here and a change. I don't think I'll stay all snow here or have much in the way of accumulation at all until the Euro comes on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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