Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 That's nice, but I'm referring to your incorrect analysis of the euro this morning. Never any credit for me. It's ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Hopefully the Boxing day system looks decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 He agreed with your first posts yesterday...saying that a ULL far eniugh south or even a potent little shortwave rounding the base of it could give us a shot...but its not a good chance. Your disagreement came when you stated the 00z Euro last night had snow for us. Outside of a couple weenie flurries, it did not show that. ULL was too far north on the Euro. Euro hinted at it with higher rh. You see that you automatically think qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Watch tonight's runs slide the cutoff into Delaware and bury everybody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Never any credit for me. It's ok I'm hoping big time for something too, but lets remain realistic and make sure the analysis is right. The 12z GFS would go a long way towards your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Euro hinted at it with higher rh. You see that you automatically think qpf That also means just clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 That also means just clouds. But it also means possible precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Wel all should have went to Will's Aunts out in the Sierra. What a slam job the west has been getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 But it also means possible precip I salute you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Yes. I'm starting to feel it. Hate to say it, Jerry... but you feel 93-94 just about every winter. It's as if 93-94 has replaced "fat squirrels" in your lexicon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 But it also means possible precip Probably just some flurries from leftover broken LES snowshowers. It wouldn't be enough to give us a white Christmas on the Euro. You need lift to go with the high RH...high RH alone does not give us accumulating snow...and the Euro synoptics do not provide any lift for us unless you are on the west slopes of the mountains like where Mitch is in Lenox where orographics provide the lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Hate to say it, Jerry... but you feel 93-94 just about every winter. It's as if 93-94 has replaced "fat squirrels" in your lexicon. I don't think he felt it last year, lol. Though I'm sure he mentioned it when we started off slow. He was really feeling it in 2010-2011, but we never were able to regain the magic in late Feb and early March like 1994 did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Hate to say it, Jerry... but you feel 93-94 just about every winter. It's as if 93-94 has replaced "fat squirrels" in your lexicon. i've been on wx forums since the late 90s and you're definitely right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 It has been decided. In order to appease the winter gods, we must apparently cannibalize Jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 GGEM was about the same not sure what I was looking at earlier. ULL is to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 the low track on the gfs is bizarre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 GGEM was about the same not sure what I was looking at earlier. ULL is to our north. You were't seeing things. The GGEM tracked the h5 cutoff further south than its previous runs, actually very similar to the GFS through day 3.5. But it diverged thereafter with the GGEM sliding up into NNE and the GFS sinking south to near LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Hate to say it but GFS makes sense given the block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Hate to say it but GFS makes sense given the block the same block that's giving you days and days of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 On my phone so I can't see soundings, but the GFS looks a little interesting here to start on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 On my phone so I can't see soundings, but the GFS looks a little interesting here to start on Friday. How are those PM's looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 On my phone so I can't see soundings, but the GFS looks a little interesting here to start on Friday. Looks like snow to rain. Warm surface cooling with height. The rock pile would amass dumpage. Might not change over. I'm not sure I buy the idea of minimal surface cold, but with a stacked low way west it could be right. That brings warmth in at all levels relatively evenly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Looks like snow to rain. Warm surface cooling with height. The rock pile would amass dumpage. Might not change over. I'm not sure I buy the idea of minimal surface cold, but with a stacked low way west it could be right. That brings warmth in at all levels relatively evenly. Probably .1" per 1k elevation before changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Man that 12z GFS looks sweet.... that would be days and days of snow in the upslope regions after a snow to rain to snow for the synoptic event. Feeling good about a white X-Mas... still 3" on the ground at home here now and its 34F. Dodged a bullet today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 C'mon... please, please Santa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 If we can get that low to track near Cleveland, we could be in business. GEFS look a little better... something like a Toronto/Buffalo - Syracuse track. That favors NNE. We need Clevelenad to Scranton-WB. 1/10 for miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Man that 12z GFS looks sweet.... that would be days and days of snow in the upslope regions after a snow to rain to snow for the synoptic event. Feeling good about a white X-Mas... still 3" on the ground at home here now and its 34F. Dodged a bullet today. High peaks look to get hammered. 1-2' by early next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 That's wonderful the mtns above 3k get hammered. Congrats on climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 C'mon... please, please Santa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 That's wonderful the mtns above 3k get hammered. Congrats on climo. Highly relevant to white xmas prospects in sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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