PWMan Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 You don't want it south...I think he was trying to say the trough or shortwave was digging a bit more. I suspect you'll probably get some snow out of thisin southern ME when verification time comes calling. The GFS has been a southern outlier the past 12-24 hours or so. The foreign model guidance has definitely been more amped. Thanks. That's what I was thinking/hoping. Hope everyone in NE gets at least a little white from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 actually it was both of us. i posted about it i dunno twenty times in two hours. Yeah I mentioned it between 5- 6pm when I was noticing it snowing in the W. Va MTs - it was a sneaky thing that folks were missing do to the other aspects of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It's a rare day that the GFS isn't suppressed in this time frame. I fully expect the GFS to go suppressed and OTS with the 27/28 event on this weekend's runs, only to bring it back by Tuesday. You don't want it south...I think he was trying to say the trough or shortwave was digging a bit more. I suspect you'll probably get some snow out of thisin southern ME when verification time comes calling. The GFS has been a southern outlier the past 12-24 hours or so. The foreign model guidance has definitely been more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Just got home and ran the 18z shed a tear. wow please hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Anyone notice how far south the ULL is in northern pa right now still heading on a se heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 actually it was both of us. i posted about it i dunno twenty times in two hours. You were right. I was wrong. Too bad it all melted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 don't know if anyone posted the euro ensemble mean for xmas, but it's colder and wetter than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 don't know if anyone posted the euro ensemble mean for xmas, but it's colder and wetter than 00z Forky, you are allright Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 What did 18z Gfs do on Xmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Forky, you are allright this is a legitimate threat. everything else this december was not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 What did 18z Gfs do on Xmas? It gave you a good 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It gave you a good 1-3". Thanks. That'd be mint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 this is a legitimate threat. everything else this december was not Well, we did get a ton of rain and cars blown off the road 1" events have been biggins this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Pickles good call on the front end stuff last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Pickles good call on the front end stuff last night. I wish I had been able to stay up for itI woke after it was done (1.5" here) and it was gone when I got home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I am only 27, when was the last time we saw snow on Christmas Eve night/ Christmas morning. I remember light snow falling around midnight on Christmas when I was young about 8 or 9 years old.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 FWIW NAM and SREF are both very suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I am only 27, when was the last time we saw snow on Christmas Eve night/ Christmas morning. I remember light snow falling around midnight on Christmas when I was young about 8 or 9 years old.. I'm 44 and I think I've only seen it twice and not in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Solid warmup for us on the GFS followed by the potential big one later on. You can really see how were threading the needle with the 27th storm. The block, PV lobe, and vort all line up perfectly for a storm on the coast, and even then its still borderline. As long as those three stay relatively the same, we should be ok, but I fear that a slight shift in the block or the lobe will change allow the vort to cut inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I'm 44 and I think I've only seen it twice and not in a long time. I seem to recall it in 1995 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 FWIW NAM and SREF are both very suppressed. The amped solutions are somewhat strange because of whats going on in SE Canada and the fact the vort at 500mb sort of just amplifies on its own without a phase into the Canada vort. You would expect dampening of the wave in these scenarios most of the time, not strengthening as they come east across the OH Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I seem to recall it in 1995 or so That would make sense I was 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Working Sunday - Tuesday at the station, bored in between shows so I am making some Christmas snow graphics hoping that they actually come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Solid warmup for us on the GFS followed by the potential big one later on. You can really see how were threading the needle with the 27th storm. The block, PV lobe, and vort all line up perfectly for a storm on the coast, and even then its still borderline. As long as those three stay relatively the same, we should be ok, but I fear that a slight shift in the block or the lobe will change allow the vort to cut inland At 5+ days it's highly likely we'll see significant shifts in the 100+ mile range as we approach. I agree it's a very tight window as currently modeled and truth be told at 5-6 days it's highly unlikely what we're seeing modeled is the "final" outcome as many have said. We're looking at the near perfect solution right now, quite possible it ends up booted further east or that it cuts earlier and ends up into PA etc. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 FWIW NAM and SREF are both very suppressed. Who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 22, 2012 Author Share Posted December 22, 2012 3-5 event on Xmas Eve into Xmas Day. This is going to be stuff dreams are made of Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 3-5 event on Xmas Eve into Xmas Day. This is going to be stuff dreams are made of Keuro ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 1993 was when we had light snow late Christmas Eve night and predawn Christmas day.....1995 didnt see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I am only 27, when was the last time we saw snow on Christmas Eve night/ Christmas morning. I remember light snow falling around midnight on Christmas when I was young about 8 or 9 years old.. It was likely different for you, but down here in Central NJ in 2002 we had snow xmas eve night to kick off that storm, about 2" accumulated before changing to rain after i had gone to sleep...it was all washed away by xmas morning and raining in the 40s, but I'll count that. It flipped back to snow in the afternoon and we received another 3-4" by xmas night. Great memory that storm was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It was likely different for you, but down here in Central NJ in 2002 we had snow xmas eve night to kick off that storm, about 2" accumulated before changing to rain after i had gone to sleep...it was all washed away by xmas morning and raining in the 40s, but I'll count that. It flipped back to snow in the afternoon and we received another 3-4" by xmas night. Great memory that storm was. We had a half inch during one of the Christmas mornings in the mid 90's. I believe it was 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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