Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Am I confusing systems or is the GGEM going pretty good with Winter Storm Will? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Thanks man. I used to live in southern Dutchess. Always enjoyed your reports from Orange. It's amazing how much cooler it can be out by you than down in the valley. Now I'm up in Rensellear and I lived in Boston for a long time, so I gravitate to the NE subforum. We gotta wake up the HV forum. I'm sure it will come alive for the next good threat. Yeah its been pretty dead the past few weeks. Hopefully next weeks storm can deliver the goods! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 You people need to work. Beautiful day out here with mid level deck moving in. Believe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 We finally have a threat to track and we're fighting. Will has not given up hope and he appears to have been a Wise Man. GGEM has a decent low, it develops down into the mid 990s as it passes south of NS. GEFS have measurable I suspect the Euro comes a knocking north? It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Am I confusing systems or is the GGEM going pretty good with Winter Storm Will? It produces a band of 1-2" for SNE...esp south of the pike. The upper levels look more impressive than the sfc QPF output which has been the case in most of the model progs thus far for this system. Makes me think something could definitely occur. GEFS were more robust with a few members bringing near advisory level snowfall for Christmas morning...so it definitely bears wtaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 This is more of a Xmas eve snowfall into the Wee hours as Santa makes the rounds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 FWIW, the 12z GEFS have a weak low over KY at 108 hours and then a weak one south of BID at 120 hours...about a tenth of an inch of qpf for CT/RI/SE MA with measurable up to CNE. So the Christmas idea is still very much there on the ensembles. Yeah some of the GFS ensemble members had a little wave form south of SNE overnight so I'm not surprised at 12z there's still a bit of hope there. GGEM has a nice 1-3 for the south coast with a coating or an inch from Tolland to Worcester. I think we should consider banning eduggs from this subforum. Clearly he has an issue with/continues to troll red taggers here. It's a curious pattern of behavior from a disgruntled weather weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It produces a band of 1-2" for SNE...esp south of the pike. The upper levels look more impressive than the sfc QPF output which has been the case in most of the model progs thus far for this system. Makes me think something could definitely occur. GEFS were more robust with a few members bringing near advisory level snowfall for Christmas morning...so it definitely bears wtaching. With a vort like that, it probably will produce a band that is not very wide of mid level WAA/fronto snows. One of those deals where models will not show much QPF because they can't handle mesoscale stuff like that, but you know it could be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It produces a band of 1-2" for SNE...esp south of the pike. The upper levels look more impressive than the sfc QPF output which has been the case in most of the model progs thus far for this system. Makes me think something could definitely occur. GEFS were more robust with a few members bringing near advisory level snowfall for Christmas morning...so it definitely bears wtaching. Let's see the euro come on board, would be really nice to see it work out. To me it makes up for the ills of the month to have a nice Xmas eve/morning snow. I cannot recall the last time that happened, maybe 95/96? This is more of a Xmas eve snowfall into the Wee hours as Santa makes the rounds An inch of snow on Xmas is like a blizzard to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Let's see the euro come on board, would be really nice to see it work out. To me it makes up for the ills of the month to have a nice Xmas eve/morning snow. I cannot recall the last time that happened, maybe 95/96? An inch of snow on Xmas is like a blizzard to me. We haven't had a Christmas Eve snowfall of more than an inch since 1978 up here. Its been a pretty remarkable period. We did have the Christmas 2002 snowstorm but that didn't start until mid-morning or lunchtime depending on where you were and not everyone saw snow...your neck of the woods had just about all rain. Your area did have the Christmas Eve snowfall of 1998...I recall parts of the Cape getting 8-10" in that. We got whiffed here...missed a white Christmas by 10-15 miles as just southeast an inch or two...and then it got more and more as you went SE. We had almost an inch of snow late Christmas Eve night and pre-dawn Christmas day in 1993. The closest to Christmas eve we have gotten smoked in the past couple decades was December 23, 1997....18.0" of snow when 1-3" was predicted the night before. Still one of the more bizarre storms to ever affect us. You still wouldn't believe it looking at reanalysis...it doesn't look impressive at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 What the heck is the euro doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It's actually stronger with the primary going into the GL, thanks to that s/w moving through Lake Huron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It's actually stronger with the primary going into the GL, thanks to that s/w moving through Lake Huron. Let's see if we can get a secondary reflection. Looks possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 the confluence just east of maine is an issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Let's see if we can get a secondary reflection. Looks possible. It really has a minimal reflection of it, the best dynamics go way west, similar to 00z. It has very light QPF, but it's setting up something pretty big downstream..although I don't think it will be as pretty as the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 i think i may change my screen name to xmas rain . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It really has a minimal reflection of it, the best dynamics go way west, similar to 00z. It has very light QPF, but it's setting up something pretty big downstream..although I don't think it will be as pretty as the GEFS. Yup. Gulf low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 It really has a minimal reflection of it, the best dynamics go way west, similar to 00z. It has very light QPF, but it's setting up something pretty big downstream..although I don't think it will be as pretty as the GEFS. Does not look like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Glad we're inland if Euro is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Light QPF aside, the idea is still certainly on the table. You'd ideally like to see that vortmax get squashed underneath us to give the best dynamical forcing to an already moisture starved system...but beggars can't be choosers...even an inch or two would be pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Glad we're inland if Euro is right Won't matter if the euro op is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Glad we're inland if Euro is right interior WV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Won't matter if the euro op is right. Yeah, Being on the east side of LP is no good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Glad we are still 150hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 interior WV? As Will said verbatim euro is an inch or 2 of snow Xmas Eve. It's a WAA light snow event where coast would go to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 As Will said verbatim euro is an inch or 2 of snow Xmas Eve. It's a WAA light snow event where coast would go to rain That's not what we mean, he is referring to the 26-27th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 As Will said verbatim euro is an inch or 2 of snow Xmas Eve. It's a WAA light snow event where coast would go to rain I never said that is what the Euro had verbatim...I said it had light qpf, but that an inch or two even would go a long way. I actually haven't looked closely at it as I'm working on other stuff right now at the same time. Also, some are talking about the storm after Christmas in this thread.... Go here if you want to discuss that: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38429-december-2728-storm-threat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 This is the white Xmas thread not the snow bomb on 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I'd take the Canadian in a heartbeat...light 1-3" event on Christmas...follows it up nicely with an advisory event on the 27th. No time to check the Euro right now...hoping to see some agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Yeah some of the GFS ensemble members had a little wave form south of SNE overnight so I'm not surprised at 12z there's still a bit of hope there. GGEM has a nice 1-3 for the south coast with a coating or an inch from Tolland to Worcester. I think we should consider banning eduggs from this subforum. Clearly he has an issue with/continues to troll red taggers here. It's a curious pattern of behavior from a disgruntled weather weenie. This is rash and uncalled for. A few red taggers have a curious pattern of attacking me personally when and if I articulate a counterpoint. If you actually read what I say, I present solid arguments, always including the reasoning to support. I never troll anybody. That's childish. I like to discuss and debate the weather. Other people turn a factual or perceived disagreement into a personal attack. That's uncalled for. I definitely add a fresh perspective. I believe that's healty for the subforum. If you can't take a little debate, you shouldn't be posting on a message board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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