CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The long rangers have taken a beating the last 13 months JMHO. Actually many adjusted their forecast for last winter in November to save arse. Granted this December was warmer than expected, I think it is wise not to expect this pattern through March. The reasons have been hashed out many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 anyone who is looking to the 27th for a snowstorm has no one to blame but themselves when we get 2 inches of rain and 40 mph winds out of the south. That is what the vast majority of model have had for days now. I know somehow that storm missing will be spun into "what a bust" or "when did things change?" enough of the "woe is me" posts. Same people...everyday...same B.S. Pouting like the weather actually has it out for them. If this is what the weather does to you I would hate to see how you react to things that actually matter. look man you totally do not understand at all. I think I can speak for most of us, we are speaking metaphorically when speaking of busts and bitching about the lack of winter. All of us have to deal with reality every day some of which is not good. We use this place as a diversion, a place to laugh and learn, to discuss our passion.In the light of the recent days many of us have had too much reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Actually many adjusted their forecast for last winter in November to save arse. Granted this December was warmer than expected, I think it is wise not to expect this pattern through March. The reasons have been hashed out many times. True but real long range skill is still obviously limited with the current modeling. We can't even get accurate progs on the MJO etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 True but real long range skill is still obviously limited with the current modeling. We can't even get accurate progs on the MJO etc. Yeah my only issue with long range stuff is that a lot of it is based on other computer modeled indices....it's like if the CPC says the NAO will tank or the PNA goes positive or whatever, we can only make predictions assuming those things are correct. The next day the model shows the NAO going in the opposite direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The system on the 27th is a cutter. I thought the person who posted before me kept saying the Intermountain West system was a cutter when it isn't. You're right it's not a clipper either. It forms just south of that area and swoops very slightly in kind of like a clipper usually does. ORH Wx called it "clipper-esque", which I can come to terms with. All in good fun. Clipper-esque indeed. I like this threat. It's just the thing we need to get off the schneid. A well timed, widespread light snowfall. This s/w is dealing with obstacles upstream and downstream, but if it survives it'll get to play with relatively low thicknesses and seasonably cold temps. It probably can't amplify and "cut" too much considering its flow environment, but if it somehow does, that will probably just force the strong trof behind it further southeast. I think NJ to SNE is in the game for a shot here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Clipper-esque indeed. I like this threat. It's just the thing we need to get off the schneid. A well timed, widespread light snowfall. This s/w is dealing with obstacles upstream and downstream, but if it survives it'll get to play with relatively low thicknesses and seasonably cold temps. It probably can't amplify and "cut" too much considering its flow environment, but if it somehow does, that will probably just force the strong trof behind it further southeast. I think NJ to SNE is in the game for a shot here. Yeah looks like NJ is in the lead right now. Still so far out but hopefully Santa's elves are a bit more generous to us folk up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 True but real long range skill is still obviously limited with the current modeling. We can't even get accurate progs on the MJO etc. MJO forecasts have struggled from day 1. I actually always take those with a grain of salt. Because there are three components that make up the MJO forecasts, one of the signals can be bootleg and overpower another signal causing a forecasts that isn't accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Dinglebury with another post for the ages. My advice: Shake violently and it will fall right into the bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 GFS takes it to the grinder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 GFS takes it to the grinder. I'm really surprised a modeled threat evaporated on us again. Now we can focus on the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The ensembles actually have a very weak low moving through SNE on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The ensembles actually have a very weak low moving through SNE on Christmas. GGEM was pretty close to spinning up a pretty decent sized system...verbatim it barely got squashed south...though southern areas might pick up an inch or so...not exactly frigid though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 GGEM was pretty close to spinning up a pretty decent sized system...verbatim it barely got squashed south...though southern areas might pick up an inch or so...not exactly frigid though. Heck even flurries would be nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro sends a very weak wave out under SNE. Kind of a mess with how models are handling this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro sends a very weak wave out under SNE. Kind of a mess with how models are handling this. At least it keeps it suspenseful. Btw just pulled my first mid. I'm in zombie mode right now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Guys thanks for the euro updates. Tons of us sneak a read in while tossing and turning but never post. It is appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Guys thanks for the euro updates. Tons of us sneak a read in while tossing and turning but never post. It is appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro precip ensembles are only giving New England a 10-20% chance at 0.1 inch precip or more for 6 hr QPF totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 Festivus miracle as modelled overnight more a south of pike Xmas eve snow..but think it will come back for you folks north..Ukie still looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The forecast pictures on my point/click are so much more attractive than the actual forecast....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 This Christmas wave is a mess on the models right now...some try and amp it up into an actual mini-coastal and others keep it very flat, with some in between as a light overrunning snow. The airmass isn't overly cold with it, so we'd have to watch for BL issues...esp south coast...if this system happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 I don't think it's a question of if it happens now. That is lockrd. It's how far north snow gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Euro sends a very weak wave out under SNE. Kind of a mess with how models are handling this. That's not quite what I see. At least it's not the full picture. The Euro s/w looks pretty potent to me and wraps a piece of it up into the Lakes. The surface low that slides into the Ohio Valley on day 5 is neither weak nor moisture starved. It ends up in western NY as a weak surface reflection develops along the baroclinic zone south of LI. The "wave" is NOT too far south, but too far north on the Euro, so the redeveloped low center near the coast lacks forcing mechanisms. The primary mid-level s/w actually consolidates with the PV in central Canada. If it were weaker and further south, we'd probably get a better solution. A Euro/GFS/GGEM combo would work out well I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I don't think it's a question of if it happens now. That is lockrd. It's how far north snow gets What's your obsession with locking things? We've seen last minute miracles and busts. I don't see a reason to lock anything. A spectrum of high to low likelihood seems sufficient for describing future events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 The airmass isn't overly cold with it, so we'd have to watch for BL issues...esp south coast...if this system happened. That's nitpicking. As modeled it's one of the best airmasses we've had this season. The GFS and GGEM are snow right to the coast. Surface temps at the immediate shoreline, especially out on the Cape, might be a degree or two above freezing, but the freezing level is just above the treetops, so it's definitely snow. Hedging towards the Euro, I think this one ends up further north and I definitely agree that we'd have to watch for BL warmth esp along the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 That's nitpicking. As modeled it's one of the best airmasses we've had this season. The GFS and GGEM are snow right to the coast. Surface temps at the immediate shoreline, especially out on the Cape, might be a degree or two above freezing, but the freezing level is just above the treetops, so it's definitely snow. Hedging towards the Euro, I think this one ends up further north and I definitely agree that we'd have to watch for BL warmth esp along the SE coast. Sounds like you agree with me then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 That's not quite what I see. At least it's not the full picture. The Euro s/w looks pretty potent to me and wraps a piece of it up into the Lakes. The surface low that slides into the Ohio Valley on day 5 is neither weak nor moisture starved. It ends up in western NY as a weak surface reflection develops along the baroclinic zone south of LI. The "wave" is NOT too far south, but too far north on the Euro, so the redeveloped low center near the coast lacks forcing mechanisms. The primary mid-level s/w actually consolidates with the PV in central Canada. If it were weaker and further south, we'd probably get a better solution. A Euro/GFS/GGEM combo would work out well I think. Sounds like you agree. I can't write a novel on my phone like you can, so I abbreviate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Sounds like you agree with me then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 For tonight, it looks like the 12z GFS is printing out an inch of snow, maybe two, for WMA, ENY, and the higher elevations of the Catskills and NWCT. If the GFS is right is could be briefly heavy tomorrow morning. I'm a little suspicious of this. With a strong southerly flow I could see surface temps creeping up to the mid 30s for lower elevations while the higher elevations get a quick pasting. I think this becomes elevational with the highest elevations of the Cats, Berks, and southern Greens possibly picking up a quick few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Sounds like you agree. I can't write a novel on my phone like you can, so I abbreviate. No, I don't agree with your synopsis. "Euro sends a very weak wave out under SNE" just doesn't paint an accurate picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.