PWMan Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Euro coming on board with a little something. In how wide a band, latitude-wise? Based on GFS is looked like a pretty narrow swath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 For NJ on this run I swear, if we follow up record rains here with a Christmas snowfall in the mid-Atlantic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 In how wide a band, latitude-wise? Based on GFS is looked like a pretty narrow swath. Does not matter attm, It missed well south, It went ENE off the NJ coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Kev we had one day of good runs a week ago on euro and ens, besides that I think most all model runs have blown. I mean when ray is excited over and inch of snow and icing b4 it washes away the next day that should tell u it continues to blow. I'm most interested in the xmas eve deal and hope it works out, we really need it in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Kev we had one day of good runs a week ago on euro and ens, besides that I think most all model runs have blown. I mean when ray is excited over and inch of snow and icing b4 it washes away the next day that should tell u it continues to blow. I'm most interested in the xmas eve deal and hope it works out, we really need it in here We're fine and headed twds a wintry pattern with the gradient 100-200 miles south of where its been and we've still got complaining . I'm not sure what folks want? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 We're fine and headed twds a wintry pattern with the gradient 100-200 miles south of where its been and we've still got complaining . I'm not sure what folks want? Results and now! I agree with you though. We're leaps and bounds better off than last winter at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 We're fine and headed twds a wintry pattern with the gradient 100-200 miles south of where its been and we've still got complaining . I'm not sure what folks want? dude ull be sucking tailpipe b4 nye , this gradient is not moving that far south on the 27th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 dude ull be sucking tailpipe b4 nye , this gradient is not moving that far south on the 27th Afraid so. nothing has worked out since late Nov despite calls for things to change, which they really haven't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 What is wrong with people? A 12z Gfs run lol. This is an all time low for these posts. The Euro gives you a grand total of about no snow between now and Xmas. The next event it brings the primary over Chicago torching all the way to Canada. That's the OP GFS and Euro both FTL....I'll take that to the bank for the most part. The great news is by Days 9 and 10 the pattern looks much better.... ...although not as cold as the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Do folks follow the mets posts and ideas on this or do they just forget them and blindly follow models? This is absurd today. Absolutely unreal what we're reading here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The Euro gives you a grand total of about no snow between now and Xmas. The next event it brings the primary over Chicago torching all the way to Canada. That's the OP GFS and Euro both FTL....I'll take that to the bank for the most part. The great news is by Days 9 and 10 the pattern looks much better.... ...although not as cold as the 0z. I'm having nightmares of last year...always 7-10 days out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Do folks follow the mets posts and ideas on this or do they just forget them and blindly follow models? This is absurd today. Absolutely unreal what we're reading here I think we're allowed to have our own thoughts Kev. We've all been hearing about pattern change for 13 months. Yes this is a different pattern than 3 weeks ago and 12 months ago, but in the end it still whacks it hard for winter weather south of 42N. I don't see that changing at all for the next 7-10 days minus an Xmas miracle. It's totally my opinion but I think we continue to see cutters until we arrange a pattern in which we build big highs out west, and to the north...and not the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Do folks follow the mets posts and ideas on this or do they just forget them and blindly follow models? This is absurd today. Absolutely unreal what we're reading here Depends, the 27th cutter idea is there. I sort of like the Christmas look for some light stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Euro looks healthier with the Xmas Eve shortwave. I think that one might have a little potential if we can keep it on guidance for a couple more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 The Euro gives you a grand total of about no snow between now and Xmas. The next event it brings the primary over Chicago torching all the way to Canada. That's the OP GFS and Euro both FTL....I'll take that to the bank for the most part. The great news is by Days 9 and 10 the pattern looks much better.... ...although not as cold as the 0z. Screaming southerlies with rain to Montreal and beyond. Don't worry, it's only (late) December! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Euro gives me a white christmas sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Folks that have level heads and aren't sleeping with cutting storms till April.. Please see DTs new blog on the midday runs, why they are wrong and what is actually likely to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Folks that have level heads and aren't sleeping with cutting storms till April.. Please see DTs new blog on the midday runs, why they are wrong and what is actually likely to happen I enjoy DT, but will read it in a few days. The gradient shifts towards NY. Not really much before. I don't expect that the next two systems are going to torch to montreal, I expect similar to yesterday. But until we get the gradient well south of us in advance of systems it's all moot. Again JMHO. The Euro waivered a bit on the cold inside of 220, but it's there and the gradient is south as it is on the GFS. That's a start, it's a gradual shift towards winter that may take until 1/5 to 1/15 to really take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Folks that have level heads and aren't sleeping with cutting storms till April.. Please see DTs new blog on the midday runs, why they are wrong and what is actually likely to happen Why do you do this to yourself? Just accept that we have a realm of possibilities. It may or may not go west. Probably will end up with some interior mix from ORH north at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 FWIW, the pattern has changed a lot...a pattern can change quite a bit without us going into January 2011 KU heaven. Those types of patterns are rare to begin with. The pattern isn't done changing either. We've transitioned from a dry, warm pattern across a lot of the eastern half of the U.S the first 10-14 days of Dec to a stormy pattern albeit still mild in the means, esp where we are in the northeast. Unfortunately its not as cold as we'd like, but that should continue to change in our favor the further we go along. Don't expect severe cold either. But a step down to more seasonal cold is likely over the next 7-10 days...regardless of that the 12/27 storm does. I do think that one could have a very icy look in the interior, but we are a ways out. I wouldn't rule out a snow to ice scenario either. As long as the pattern continues to go stormy here in the next few weeks, we will cash in...esp for areas further north. At any rate, this talk should really be in the pattern thread and not this one which is focusing on stuff for 12/25 and earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Why do you do this to yourself? Just accept that we have a realm of possibilities. It may or may not go west. Probably will end up with some interior mix from ORH north at the very least. You flip flop with the models. You really do. Earlier you say you favor a colder scenario and now its a semi troll of ORH north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 You flip flop with the models. You really do. Earlier you say you favor a colder scenario and now its a semi troll of ORH north I never said that, been steadfast mostly disagreeing with your all snow posts. I'll rip a page off your book and say where are my accolades from you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 I never said that, been steadfast mostly disagreeing with your all snow posts. I'll rip a page off your book and say where are my accolades from you? What?? You have said for the 27th storm you are favoring a colder scenario. Are you saying you haven't said that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 What?? You have said for the 27th storm you are favoring a colder scenario. Are you saying you haven't said that? The storm is 180 hours out...I wouldn't worry too much about it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 What?? You have said for the 27th storm you are favoring a colder scenario. Are you saying you haven't said that? This is what I said. I don't favor 60F right now for the interior, but read on. This was in reference to the Euro ensemble. They look better, a more wintry appeal, although they still introduce some mix to the south and southwest. It's still far so it should be of those deals where you look at it and go "ok cool..we'll see how it goes...." I certainly like this potential a lot more than Kevin's day 8 euro fantasy from last week. For now it favors the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 You flip flop with the models. You really do. Earlier you say you favor a colder scenario and now its a semi troll of ORH north Seriously lol'ing hard at that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Thank you No problem, it's just so far out that you really can't finalize it right now. Just hope the euro op is over-amplification happy like it sometimes tends to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'm starting to like the model support for Christmas Eve and Day snow. Stil 5-6 days out, but a lot closer than our 27th mess of a potential. 12z GFS, CMC, EURO, GFS ensembles individuals all show the clipper, but are off on timing and degree of amplification of the jet stream with this disturbance. Still a few days before we get fancy with snow on Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I'm starting to like the model support for Christmas Eve and Day snow. Stil 5-6 days out, but a lot closer than our 27th mess of a potential. 12z GFS, CMC, EURO, GFS ensembles individuals all show the clipper, but are off on timing and degree of amplification of the jet stream with this disturbance. Still a few days before we get fancy with snow on Christmas. I think you mean cutter. We haven't seen a clipper in quite a bit. Winter 2010 was full of those if I remember right. We are looking at something come Christmas day but location is still up in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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