CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I've never seen Kevin so desperate. Straight up desperado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I definitely think the better chance is Christmas Eve night. There's an actual shortwave that might produce a system there. If we see the ULL shift 100 miles south, then I might change my mind, but snow showers aren't going to go much outside of upslope spots unless you get totally lucky and end up in a squall that dumps 2" in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 I've never seen Kevin so desperate. Straight up desperado. Just want snow OTg for Xmas. We have 2 legit shots. Hopefully they work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I definitely think the better chance is Christmas Eve night. There's an actual shortwave that might produce a system there. If we see the ULL shift 100 miles south, then I might change my mind, but snow showers aren't going to go much outside of upslope spots unless you get totally lucky and end up in a squall that dumps 2" in an hour. It's an interesting shift in guidance regarding that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I definitely think the better chance is Christmas Eve night. There's an actual shortwave that might produce a system there. If we see the ULL shift 100 miles south, then I might change my mind, but snow showers aren't going to go much outside of upslope spots unless you get totally lucky and end up in a squall that dumps 2" in an hour. Xmas eve night is my favorite for snow, but I don't see either "threat" as legit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Just want snow OTg for Xmas. We have 2 legit shots. Hopefully they work out Like we said earlier, the Christmas Eve night/ Day seems much more interesting, but I hope you squeeze something out Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 I could even see us grabbing reach around snows as early as Fri nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Xmas eve night is my favorite for snow, but I don't see either "threat" as legit... I think it warrants a little attention as guidance is trying to hint at something, however let's see what today's models bring. Euro grinded the s/w out, but it was potent enough and a siggy change to make you go hmmmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I hear the need is for the low to track further south for hopes of eeking out any snow showers this weekend. That seems pretty evident. That said, I don't see what would cause it to do that. I suppose if the primary were not as strong, that could allow for a secondary to muster more say in the event. But, I'm not sure what mechanism would make that happen. I suppose wishcasting helps, but the verification of that is pretty poor. 38.2/30, blustery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I could even see us grabbing reach around snows as early as Fri nite. There's the Kevin we all know and love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Unfortunately I'm stuck/committed to central/northern NH for a part of the NYE weekend. Trying to decide if it's worth the trip to SR or SL for a day or two in advance, come south and enjoy family time. A lot rides on the model runs the next 12-24 hours, if that next big one around the 28th cuts it's Maine or bust one thing i took away from this last storm up here. identify where the downslope'd areas are, esp w marginal airmasses, and avoid them. bretton woods was a pure torch this storm, and the ground in town had nothing on it. While conway and attitash and wildcat still have solid snowpack this am. Saki i would look at wildcat for next week (in the area). Their point and click bombs them with heavy snow for fri nite. Also the top of wildcat has gotten 22 inches since part 1 of the storm began. so they are absolutely caked up there. down below they received about 11 , which is now prob steel plated snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 gfs lifts the ull due north almost, looks like the euro has started a trend for Saturday just can't catch a break. Patience I guess, hopefully the xmas eve event can come in a little flatter for all so its some light snows to whiten the landscape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 the gfs came north... another kevin hope bites the dust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Still looks like folks can eek a little winter before a quick change to rain. I still expect some mood flakes for many. Accumulation on the other hand........ Feels like winter anyway--37.7/30, cloudy and a few weenie flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Yes! Now thats the xmas eve run we want, what a xmas miracle that would be for many in sne! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 12z GFS looks a lot better for the Christmas Eve night threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Still looks like folks can eek a little winter before a quick change to rain. I still expect some mood flakes for many. Accumulation on the other hand........ Feels like winter anyway--37.7/30, cloudy and a few weenie flakes. Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 GFS has a little light precip around SNE xmas eve night - the downside to the way it's doing this though is it actually warms the column a bit. looks like it would be ice over parts of the interior and light rain elsewhere. nothing like tracking day 6 .2" qpf. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 12z GFS looks a lot better for the Christmas Eve night threat. That might be the perfect thread the needle run there, hope it can hold looks like 1-3 in the interior with rain to snowshowers on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 12z GFS looks a lot better for the Christmas Eve night threat. Yeah not bad. If take it, and if it can sneak south.....lots better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 congrats scooter at hr 144 for xmass eve night....looks like advisory snow for sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 GFS has a little light precip around SNE xmas eve night - the downside to the way it's doing this though is it actually warms the column a bit. looks like it would be ice over parts of the interior and light rain elsewhere. nothing like tracking day 6 .2" qpf. LOL I can't see that on my phone, but let's hope it can sneak south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 12z GFS looks a lot better for the Christmas Eve night threat. Yeah a nice gentle 1-3 for all as we suck back egg nog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Christmas miracle private SNE snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 hr 168 mid-west getting crushed again. KC-Chi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 back to the stronger s.w/cutter idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 back to the stronger s.w/cutter idea. verbatiam chicago get a epic storm, upstate NY and sne away from coast get a ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Groundhog winter. Storm after storm to our west, runs into the "block" and gets slowly squashed out over/under us as we sit under days and says of scud clouds and gloom. Worst pattern ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Huh? For Thursday night?? Yes. And Friday night/Saturday? Yes. Just speaking from the GFS. Meanwhile, what a HORRIBLE run for 12/27. Ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 verbatiam chicago get a epic storm, upstate NY and sne away from coast get a ice storm. How far north does the ice go before change to snow? Catskills ski resorts see snow or ice storm? What about north of KALB and the dacks? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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