eduggs Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I think there's a good chance at a few snow showers around on Saturday, but I'm a bit skeptical of anything accumulating outside the upslope spots. We need to see the ULL come a bit further south. Its possible but not all that likely IMHO. I think a better shot might be that shotwave in the flow for Christmas Eve night or Christmas morning. The GFS actually has it so amped up, it changes us to non-snow..maybe some ZR on Christmas morning or just plain light rain. But that might be an opportunity. Sounds pretty reasonable. As Sunny in PHL said last night, the trof axis still looks too far west, but with a cutoff to our NE, this might offer a balance between suppression/cold and moisture. The seasonal trend has been to take lows into the Lakes, and the ensembles don't offer many other solutions, so the inclination is to go that route. But there is at least an avenue to Christmas snow, if we take it. This is still 6 days out. If it's not a false signal that could be a monster trof at day 7. Can we push it far enough east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Ukie had it too @BigJoeBastardi: ukmet.front runner could have sneaky pre Christmas snow south of major storm now, with 2cnd major further east 12/25-27 http://t.co/1v2O5XpV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Ukie had it too @BigJoeBastardi: ukmet.front runner could have sneaky pre Christmas snow south of major storm now, with 2cnd major further east 12/25-27 http://t.co/1v2O5XpV JB: the man who missed the historic warmth of this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Ukie had it too @BigJoeBastardi: ukmet.front runner could have sneaky pre Christmas snow south of major storm now, with 2cnd major further east 12/25-27 http://t.co/1v2O5XpV GGEM also shows the sneaky wave but it's way to our south. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ggem/00zggem850mbTSLPp06144.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 JB: the man who missed the historic warmth of this month. He is god awful, his axis of bitter cold............. Syracuse NY is +8.8 for the month of December lol. Snowflurries for all, coatings for the usual spots west side of spine and up in ski country, will nice to see flakes in the air!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 JB: the man who missed the historic warmth of this month. What historic warmth? It's been above normal but nothing historic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 What historic warmth? It's been above normal but nothing historic http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/getclimate.php?wfo=bgm Thats historic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 What historic warmth? It's been above normal but nothing historic Incorrect, places in the eastern lake region and ohio tennessee valley are going to experience all time warmest Decembers ever. Your hood orh is what +5.7, he called for bitter cold, he is a failure, and the laughing stock of the MET community Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I feel like it has been an eternity waiting for this colder air...i know since tuesday am the box forecasted high for saturday has warmed up five degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 ITs pretty clear what JB's peers think of him in the JB thread, regardless of what Kevin might say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Incorrect, places in the eastern lake region and ohio tennessee valley are going to experience all time warmest Decembers ever. Your hood orh is what +5.7, he called for bitter cold, he is a failure, and the laughing stock of the MET community Who cares about that area? We don't Live there. No one here gives a rats azz about Cuse. He also did not call for bitter wx. He called for cold coming in sooner than it has. So in that aspect he was bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Nam sides with the Euro, partly sunny flurry possible in the higher terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Who cares about that area? We don't Live there. No one here gives a rats azz about Cuse. He also did not call for bitter wx. He called for cold coming in sooner than it has. So in that aspect he was bad Wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Who cares about that area? We don't Live there. No one here gives a rats azz about Cuse. He also did not call for bitter wx. He called for cold coming in sooner than it has. So in that aspect he was bad Dude-you are spinning. Even in New England, most stations are running 5 to 7 degree above for the month...that's noteworthy in itself...the fact that the eastern 2/3 of the US has been equally warm is remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 We are going to finish solidly above normal this month...it was a big miss by JB...but I highly doubt it will be historic. The departures will likely get sliced down to merely warm. Anyway, how did this thead turn into temp departures, isn't this about a white Christmas probability? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 At any rate, NAM didn't look that good for Saturday. SREFs were more promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 December has sucked, but I'm not worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Because Joe uses every thread to post his temp and monthly departures. It's in every thread if you read thru. Srefs are nice. Might need to toss Nam now. Mitch likes all of Sne for snow showers this weekend in other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 At any rate, NAM didn't look that good for Saturday. SREFs were more promising. I hate the SREFs as much as Litch likes posting about temp departures. Has it really been that warm this month? Must be mainly come on the low temp side because it doesn't feel 7 degrees warmer. NAM says enjoy partly to mostly cloudy with heavy virga moving WNW to ESE across the area. Some flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Because Joe uses every thread to post his temp and monthly departures. It's in every thread if you read thru. Srefs are nice. Might need to toss Nam now. Mitch likes all of Sne for snow showers this weekend in other thread. It started because you posted tweets of JB, thats all its that simple and most if not everyone finds him to be out of touch to put it politely. We all hope it snows this weekend, the NAM took a step back...............but looking ahead into January things look fantasic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Because Joe uses every thread to post his temp and monthly departures. It's in every thread if you read thru. Srefs are nice. Might need to toss Nam now. Mitch likes all of Sne for snow showers this weekend in other thread. It started because there's nothing to talk about Kevin. The snow shizzard this weekend looks like a flop but will wait for the GFS/Euro first. Epic warm departures is all we got for a 2nd December in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 It started because you posted tweets of JB, thats all its that simple and most if not everyone finds him to be out of touch to put it politely. We all hope it snows this weekend, the NAM took a step back...............but looking ahead into January things look fantasic! I posted about what the Ukie was showing snow on Xmas eve and you turned it into what Cuse temps are MTD.Srefs look good for a light accum this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 We were due for some $hitty Decembers..should not be a surprise, and its no biggie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I posted about what the Ukie was showing snow on Xmas eve and you turned it into what Cuse temps are MTD. Srefs look good for a light accum this weekend ok lets hope so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Toss whatever doesn't show snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I hate the SREFs as much as Litch likes posting about temp departures. Has it really been that warm this month? Must be mainly come on the low temp side because it doesn't feel 7 degrees warmer. NAM says enjoy partly to mostly cloudy with heavy virga moving WNW to ESE across the area. Some flurries. Both the SREFs can NAM aren't very good at this time range. SREFs are definitely better though in terms of accuracy. Both take a back seat to the Euro though which is not really on board right now with the further south track...though it did have a stronger ULL on the 00z run which might make for more instability snow showers...but you don't want to hang your hat on just those for accumulation. And you are correct that the min temps have been where the biggest positive departures are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 you know it's been a horrid month when folks are excited about a possible snow shower. The pattern that just keeps on giving! Epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Both the SREFs can NAM aren't very good at this time range. SREFs are definitely better though in terms of accuracy. Both take a back seat to the Euro though which is not really on board right now with the further south track...though it did have a stronger ULL on the 00z run which might make for more instability snow showers...but you don't want to hang your hat on just those for accumulation. And you are correct that the min temps have been where the biggest positive departures are. I guess it might tip that way but for instance, orh has had 6 days of 50+ already this month ranging from 50-58. Daily highs have been impressive as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Because Joe uses every thread to post his temp and monthly departures. It's in every thread if you read thru. Srefs are nice. Might need to toss Nam now. Mitch likes all of Sne for snow showers this weekend in other thread. As I said in the other thread, the chances for snow showers outside of the orographically favored areas are better if low tracks further south. Although I think there may be enough instability for some snow showers outside of the Berks and far NW CT, I'm not really expecting much, if any, accumulation from them save for a whitening of the ground type of thing if a snow shower or squall happens to pass overhead of you. Any accumulations will probably be confined to the upslope regions. That said, 12Z NAM does not look good for the rest of SNE as low passes further north. This may actually help the upslope areas a bit though for the reasons I mentioned in my other post, but it hurts the rest of SNE as downsloping dries things out. There still could be some hit and miss snow showers that escape if there's some instability in this setup though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 As I said in the other thread, the chances for snow showers outside of the orographically favored areas are better if low tracks further south. Although I think there may be enough instability for some snow showers outside of the Berks and far NW CT, I'm not really expecting much, if any, accumulation from them save for a whitening of the ground type of thing if a snow shower or squall happens to pass overhead of you. Any accumulations will probably be confined to the upslope regions. That said, 12Z NAM does not look good for the rest of SNE as low passes further north. This may actually help the upslope areas a bit though for the reasons I mentioned in my other post, but it hurts the rest of SNE as downsloping dries things out. There still could be some hit and miss snow showers that escape if there's some instability in this setup though. so we are getting a blizzard on Christmas day???!!! LOL! J/K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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