Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Some modeling has had signs of enough moisture around this weekend to bring us some snowshowers/ light snow. If by some act from above we can get the ULL to shoot out under us we might be able to do a little better. While it may seem bleak , sometimes little impulses come along as we get closer and drop a surprise. The way things have been going it may not happen , but at least we'll have some cold , below normal temps . Lets work on the moisture. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 12z EURO looks decent for much of Maine on Christmas Eve. LP looks to be too far north for SNE though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Good luck-my money's on snowless for all but the usual spots-ME, NH VT-nothing is going our way-can't even get a 1 day arctic outbreak this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I don't think the odds are good, but not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I don't think the odds are good, but not impossible. At this point, I'd be happy to see it work out for the mountains early next week to kick off school vacations. Hopefully, it's chilly down here so people have skiing on their minds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 I don't think the odds are good, but not impossible. What would be our best albeit long shot chance? Saturday or Xmas eve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 At this point, I'd be happy to see it work out for the mountains early next week to kick off school vacations. Hopefully, it's chilly down here so people have skiing on their minds. It would be nice to see a little snow in the air, but inv troughs break your heart more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 What would be our best albeit long shot chance? Saturday or Xmas eve? Maybe Christmas Eve night, but that's a way out there kind of guess. I think any legit storm is after Christmas like the 27th or 28th. You never know, it only takes a s/w wobbling south to pull down an inv trough and maybe some light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2012 Author Share Posted December 17, 2012 Maybe Christmas Eve night, but that's a way out there kind of guess. I think any legit storm is after Christmas like the 27th or 28th. You never know, it only takes a s/w wobbling south to pull down an inv trough and maybe some light snow. I could see some stuff scattered about this weekend. Maybe even some lake enhanced stuff if we can get a bit of an impulse to rotate thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 It would be nice to see a little snow in the air, but inv troughs break your heart more often than not. Yeah, I'd say chances are very slim. However, NE MASS is the best spot historically in SNE. I'd much rather be in southern ME though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Well....I don't celebrate Christmas but most people refer to me as white. Does that count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Well....I don't celebrate Christmas but most people refer to me as white. Does that count? Any good gifts lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 As I briefly mentioned in the other thread, I'm liking the chances for some upslope snows on the backside of these next two lows for the elevated terrain of VT, W MA, and perhaps extreme NW CT. The second low looks considerably more promising for a more widespread upslope snow shower event as the low occludes and becomes vertically stacked north of here across NNE or S QC. 12Z Euro has a noticeable wrap around, deformation zone in NY State associated with the second low. With a W to NW flow, some of that moisture may get advected down this way and result in snow showers. Perhaps there's even a way we could catch a bit of the deformation zone itself in future runs? 12Z GFS is hinting at this wrap around as well, but not as robustly as the Euro. While I'm not expecting anything significant for this area should it take place, anytime there's an upslope potential it bears watching, especially in light of the sudden 9" of surprise snow I had on 1/13/12. Although this was an unusually large upslope event for this area, it can happen. All it will take is an inch or two to do the trick. We've had white Christmases in the past exclusively because of some upslope. I'm not expecting anything more than a few light snow showers behind the first low Tuesday night, early Wednesday, if we get that. Perhaps we get lucky and get a bit more, but whatever we get behind the first low will get washed away by the rains ahead of low #2 anyway. Unfortunately, it's not looking too good for the rest of SNE. I wish I could bring better news, but that's how it's looking right now. Perhaps a little disturbance/inverted trough feature can bring some mood snow Xmas eve to some, but this looks better for NNE, especially ME as indicated on the GFS. Still some time for things to get better though. This is the last gasp hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Any good gifts lately? Too much giving and too little receiving...lol. Such is the nature with children as you'll learn. All good to see their smiles particularly on light of the horrific event last Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 As I briefly mentioned in the other thread, I'm liking the chances for some upslope snows on the backside of these next two lows for the elevated terrain of VT, W MA, and perhaps extreme NW CT. The second low looks considerably more promising for a more widespread upslope snow shower event as the low occludes and becomes vertically stacked north of here across NNE or S QC. 12Z Euro has a noticeable wrap around, deformation zone in NY State associated with the second low. With a W to NW flow, some of that moisture may get advected down this way and result in snow showers. Yeah dude that storm is looking real good for upslope/lake effect snows. Fantasy land models about 4-5 days out have a pretty good set-up, and especially decent looking for the Berkshires with the wind flow and CAA favorable for lake effect streamer down the Mohawk Valley adding moisture to upslope into the Berks/Taconics. The 12z GFS has a pretty good prolonged event this weekend so that would be welcomed. ULL overhead and good SFC low placement. As we know, the QPF will always be under-done on these larger grid models in these set-ups.. but the trace model QPF is a big signal for that. And his H85 set up would be great for the upslope region of SNE... with 40-60kts ripping CAA over Lake Ontario and down the Mohawk Valley into the upslope zone east of ALB. This event definitely bodes watching but as you said, really wouldn't do much for anyone outside of the Litchfield Hills or Berkshires/Taconics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hitman Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Yeah dude that storm is looking real good for upslope/lake effect snows. Fantasy land models about 4-5 days out have a pretty good set-up, and especially decent looking for the Berkshires with the wind flow and CAA favorable for lake effect streamer down the Mohawk Valley adding moisture to upslope into the Berks/Taconics. The 12z GFS has a pretty good prolonged event this weekend so that would be welcomed. ULL overhead and good SFC low placement. As we know, the QPF will always be under-done on these larger grid models in these set-ups.. but the trace model QPF is a big signal for that. And his H85 set up would be great for the upslope region of SNE... with 40-60kts ripping CAA over Lake Ontario and down the Mohawk Valley into the upslope zone east of ALB. This event definitely bodes watching but as you said, really wouldn't do much for anyone outside of the Litchfield Hills or Berkshires/Taconics. no love for the northern greens???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 As progged Kev I could envision you getting in some rotting LES squalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 maybe on Friday or Saturday we get some squalls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 It would have been really funny if Will was the first reponder and he just wrote NO, then locked the thread - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 no love for the northern greens???? I was trying to keep it at least relevant to SNE, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 As progged Kev I could envision you getting in some rotting LES squalls. I hope all of us can grab something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cycloneslurry Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 DONE TILL JANUARY...5 CONSECUTIVE METEOROLOGICAL WINTER MONTH IN BOSTON WITHOUT AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW. FEB 11 DEC 11 JAN 12 FEB 12 DEC 12 JAN 13? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Yeah dude that storm is looking real good for upslope/lake effect snows. Fantasy land models about 4-5 days out have a pretty good set-up, and especially decent looking for the Berkshires with the wind flow and CAA favorable for lake effect streamer down the Mohawk Valley adding moisture to upslope into the Berks/Taconics. The 12z GFS has a pretty good prolonged event this weekend so that would be welcomed. ULL overhead and good SFC low placement. As we know, the QPF will always be under-done on these larger grid models in these set-ups.. but the trace model QPF is a big signal for that. And his H85 set up would be great for the upslope region of SNE... with 40-60kts ripping CAA over Lake Ontario and down the Mohawk Valley into the upslope zone east of ALB. This event definitely bodes watching but as you said, really wouldn't do much for anyone outside of the Litchfield Hills or Berkshires/Taconics. I think there may be more to this than just LE moisture as there will be a considerable amount of ambient moisture on the backside of that occluded, stacked low. The best upslope events around here are caused by cyclonic W to NW flow with CAA, abundant low level moisture, and at least moderately steep lapse rates. While getting LE moisture helps, it's not necessarily a prerequisite for a good event here. LE moisture without much ambient synoptic moisture often leads to individual streamers (or a scattering of snow squalls and snow showers if instability is greater) that are highly localized. It can be good if you're in one, but a good amount of ambient moisture is what will often lead to a more general stratiform - perhaps convective, if conditionally unstable - upslope precipitation that is not as localized as a LE streamer. Also if it's too dry, the streamers won't make it this far east. This is a good setup and the models have been somewhat consistent the past 24 hours or so. Hopefully the trend continues, and the mesoscale models will get a better handle as we get closer. I'd be really happy if we could somehow get an advisory level upslope event here. It usually happens about once or twice a winter on average with a warning level event once every several winters. Unfortunately, local WFOs often don't issue the advisories/warnings until the event is well underway since the models often underestimate this local mesoscale phenomenon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Dinglebury has spoken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 We have to feel better about it today as Euro delivers Xmas miracle snow over the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 We have to feel better about it today as Euro delivers Xmas miracle snow over the weekend No it does not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 No it does not. yes it does. It has high rh which signals snow showers:/squalls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 yes it does. It has high rh which signals snow showers:/squalls Since when do we get 1-3" of snow from LES? It doesn't have anything more than a few SHSN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Looking at the bb at this point in December 2010 we had similar whining. I'm feeling good today.....liking the EPO and possible similarities to my favorite winter evolution....and a hint....it is not 2010-11 although that was a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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