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December 19th-20th Storm


andyhb

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As has been mentioned the next trough diving into the west should certainly bring some strong kinematics supporting potentially severe weather and a snow storm for the Front Range/Central and High Plains, with pseudo-Colorado Low development taking place to the leeside of the Rockies. Discussion for this system can fall here.

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so far, latest models... by t+84, the current high snow axis on the top-side of the storm for the following models, roughly estimated for the obs-sites visually

the NAM is the northern model and clocks areas from nw IA to sc-MN and ec-MN to northern WI and the UP. (SUX-SPW-MKT-MSP-FBL-RST-RGK-RCX-ASX-CMX-SAW) with the center just north of DVN

the Euro is the southern-most models by a longshot and mainly affects nc- MO, eastern IA, and far southern WI (IRK-AWG-DVN-JVL-MKE) with the center near STL

in the middle, the GFS and Canadian-Global models goes MCI-DSM-PDC-ISW-GRB (maybe MSN) with the center on the GFS near PIA and the Canadian center near COU (delayed, but similar path)

gonna be interesting for sure.

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The models seem to be trending further north with each run. Definitely something to keep an eye on.

In terms of IMBY (MN...I am leaving for MN for Christmas in a few hours), the northern edge is going to be frustratingly tight along the frontogenesis band...there will be a clear demarcation from no snow to a lot with this setup. This is going to be a tricky event for the Front Range. Eastern NE (in our zone is going to be the jackpot).

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In terms of IMBY (MN...I am leaving for MN for Christmas in a few hours), the northern edge is going to be frustratingly tight along the frontogenesis band...there will be a clear demarcation from no snow to a lot with this setup. This is going to be a tricky event for the Front Range. Eastern NE (in our zone is going to be the jackpot).

Have a safe trip, baro. This will be a fun storm to track as the time frame gets closer...my area looks to miss out unless the 12z nogaps has it's way...lol. The cities may get some accumulation, worth watching for that area.

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In terms of IMBY (MN...I am leaving for MN for Christmas in a few hours), the northern edge is going to be frustratingly tight along the frontogenesis band...there will be a clear demarcation from no snow to a lot with this setup. This is going to be a tricky event for the Front Range. Eastern NE (in our zone is going to be the jackpot).

Have a safe trip. Maybe you'll get 2 for the price of one this trip. Although it's STILL A WAYS OUT THERE...the models have shown a second system for almost a week now...on a similar track. This system may give portions of Texas...the southern plains...and gulf coast...a severe weather event on Christmas Day (+/- a day). Strong return flow and at least a day of "pre-conditionong" should allow the system to tap some good moisture. Backside of the system could give the central plains a good snow dump. Time will tell...and now that I said something...it'll prob vanish of the maps...lol.

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This storm is going to have a long zone of frontogenesis as it tracks through the Rockies. This is very good sign for cranking out the snow at the Colorado/Wyoming border for several hours, as well as the Wasatch in Utah. Check out these GFS plots of 850mb, 700mb, and surface temperatures tomorrow evening, with the strong temperature gradient. Looks like the GFS and NAM show over 0.5" of liquid for the northwest quarter of Colorado, leading to 5-10" of snow, and probably a jackpot at Steamboat Springs. I'm not so sure if we will have a big chance of over 5" east of the mountains. Nearly all of western Colorado is under a watch or warning for this.

Steamboat area (10000ft.)

* SNOW ACCUMULATION...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 18 TO 30

INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCALLY

HIGHER AMOUNTS.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE

331 PM CST MON DEC 17 2012

...FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE YEAR POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AND

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.A STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA BY MIDDAY

ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY INITIALLY MIX WITH OR START AS RAIN

ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...BUT THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE

ALL SNOW AROUND EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND

AROUND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TO SOUTHWEST IOWA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY

EVENING. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY PRECIPITATION

BECOMES ALL SNOW ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR

SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL. ALSO...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CREATE

DANGEROUS BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW CONDITIONS...INCLUDING NEAR-

WHITEOUT TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ034-043>045-050>053-065>068-

078-088>093-180545-

/O.NEW.KOAX.WS.A.0002.121219T1800Z-121220T1200Z/

MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-

PAGE-BURT-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-

SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-NEMAHA-

PAWNEE-RICHARDSON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONAWA...MAPLETON...MISSOURI VALLEY...

WOODBINE...LOGAN...DUNLAP...HARLAN...COUNCIL BLUFFS...GLENWOOD...

RED OAK...SIDNEY...HAMBURG...TABOR...FARRAGUT...CLARINDA...

SHENANDOAH...TEKAMAH...OAKLAND...LYONS...DECATUR...SCHUYLER...

FREMONT...BLAIR...DAVID CITY...WAHOO...ASHLAND...YUTAN...OMAHA...

BELLEVUE...PAPILLION...LA VISTA...SEWARD...MILFORD...LINCOLN...

PLATTSMOUTH...NEBRASKA CITY...CRETE...WILBER...FAIRBURY...

BEATRICE...TECUMSEH...STERLING...AUBURN...PAWNEE CITY...

TABLE ROCK...FALLS CITY

331 PM CST MON DEC 17 2012

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OMAHA/VALLEY HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN BY AROUND MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY IN

EASTERN NEBRASKA...SPREADING INTO WESTERN IOWA BY MID AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS A WINTRY MIX ALONG AND SOUTH OF

INTERSTATE 80...BUT ALL AREAS SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW THROUGH

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* MAIN IMPACT...SNOWFALL OF NEAR OR ABOVE SIX INCHES IS POSSIBLE

IN THE HEAVIEST BAND...THOUGH THE LOCATION AND POTENTIAL

HIGHEST AMOUNTS MAY CHANGE AS THE RAIN-SNOW LINE FLUCTUATES.

* OTHER IMPACTS...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CREATE BLOWING AND

DRIFTING SNOW ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH

WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

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Have a safe trip, baro. This will be a fun storm to track as the time frame gets closer...my area looks to miss out unless the 12z nogaps has it's way...lol. The cities may get some accumulation, worth watching for that area.

Thanks, arrived in one piece. Flurries greeted me...the nice dusty stuff. Good to be back in MN.

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SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

358 AM EST TUE DEC 18 2012

VALID 12Z TUE DEC 18 2012 - 12Z THU DEC 20 2012

...ACCUMULATING SNOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND ON

TUESDAY...

...ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE

COUNTRY AS ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST...

...FIRST WINTER STORM OF THE SEASON IS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE

CENTRAL PLAINS...

CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY DRY OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND

MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT EXITS INTO THE

ATLANTIC. HOWEVER...THE ANCHORING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO

TRACK THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA AND DEEPEN OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. AN

ABUNDANCE OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE STREAMING INLAND WILL HELP PRODUCE

AN ORGANIZED AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS NEW

ENGLAND ON TUESDAY...AND ENOUGH COLD AIR NOSING DOWN FROM CANADA

SHOULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER INTERIOR

NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW WILL BE WELL OFF THE

COAST AND ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER NEW ENGLAND

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. WILL NOT GET MUCH OF A BREAK FROM THE ACTIVE

WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL

LIGHTEN UP A BIT ON TUESDAY...BUT THEN THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM

APPROACHING THE COAST WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION BY EARLY

WEDNESDAY. STEADY RAINS ARE EXPECTED ALONG COASTAL AREAS...WHILE

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FARTHER INLAND

OVER THE WASHINGTON/OREGON CASCADES.

FINALLY...ENERGY AMPLIFYING OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING

WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER STATES ON TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE ENERGY WILL SWING OUT INTO PLAINS AND

HELP DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW IN THE LEE OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES.

THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD QUICKLY TRACK

NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BRINGING

STRONG WINDS AND A SWATH OF MODERATE SNOWS ACROSS THE CENTRAL

PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...INCREASING

AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE FUNNELING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TRAILING

COLD FRONT SHOULD HELP FIRE UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS

THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST

PERIOD...SOME OF THESE DEVELOPING STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OR EVEN

SEVERE.

GERHARDT

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SmartCast for 19 Dec/06Z to 20 Dec/06Z

Here is what my model program is seeing at this hour for the next 24 hours:

Omaha Region: Tracking snow beginning around 19/21Z, then rapidly increasing in intensity, with snowfall rates up to 1.7” from 00Z to 06Z. Blizzard like conditions beginning around 03Z. Winds will increase to 25 gusting 35 to 40MPH after 03Z. Snowfall accumulation through 20/06Z will be 11”

Lincoln Region: Tracking snow starting around 23, then rapidly increasing in intensity, with snowfall rates up to 1.9” per hour and visibilities less than ½ mile. Blizzard conditions will be possible beginning 03Z as winds increase to 25 to 30MPH, gusting to 38 to 42MPH. Snowfall accumulation through 20/06 will be 11.5”

Grand Island Region: Snow will begin around 17Z and be strongest from 22 to 04Z, with snowfall rates of 1.5” possible during this time frame. In addition, blizzard like conditions are possible from 00Z to 06Z with winds 25 to 30MPH, gusting to 38 to 42MPH. Snowfall accumulation through 20/06 will be 10.8”

McCook Region: Snow will start around 17 and will peak from 20Z to 02, with snowfall rates of 1.3” during this time. Blizzard conditions will start from 21Z through 02Z, with wind gusting up to 38 to 41MPH during this time frame. Snowfall accumulation will be 9”.

Across Kansas area from Goodland, KS to Wichita, KS looking at snowfall from 1 to 5”, winds will approach 45 to 60MPH across this region, causing blizzard like conditions, low visibilities, and dangerous wind chills.

Will continue to add more cities and update this cities hour by hour. All matrix impacts can be viewed at http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm

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This is going to be the best storm in well over a year for much of Iowa. I don't think blizzard criteria will have any problem being met.

Last winter was an absolute dud. The last real blizzard I can remember that really shut down the Des Moines region was in December, 2009. Even shut down Wells Fargo which takes something apocalyptic to accomplish here :lol:

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Could you add Kansas City, KS to your list? Airport code MCI

SmartCast for 19 Dec/06Z to 20 Dec/06Z

Here is what my model program is seeing at this hour for the next 24 hours:

Omaha Region: Tracking snow beginning around 19/21Z, then rapidly increasing in intensity, with snowfall rates up to 1.7” from 00Z to 06Z. Blizzard like conditions beginning around 03Z. Winds will increase to 25 gusting 35 to 40MPH after 03Z. Snowfall accumulation through 20/06Z will be 11”

Lincoln Region: Tracking snow starting around 23, then rapidly increasing in intensity, with snowfall rates up to 1.9” per hour and visibilities less than ½ mile. Blizzard conditions will be possible beginning 03Z as winds increase to 25 to 30MPH, gusting to 38 to 42MPH. Snowfall accumulation through 20/06 will be 11.5”

Grand Island Region: Snow will begin around 17Z and be strongest from 22 to 04Z, with snowfall rates of 1.5” possible during this time frame. In addition, blizzard like conditions are possible from 00Z to 06Z with winds 25 to 30MPH, gusting to 38 to 42MPH. Snowfall accumulation through 20/06 will be 10.8”

McCook Region: Snow will start around 17 and will peak from 20Z to 02, with snowfall rates of 1.3” during this time. Blizzard conditions will start from 21Z through 02Z, with wind gusting up to 38 to 41MPH during this time frame. Snowfall accumulation will be 9”.

Across Kansas area from Goodland, KS to Wichita, KS looking at snowfall from 1 to 5”, winds will approach 45 to 60MPH across this region, causing blizzard like conditions, low visibilities, and dangerous wind chills.

Will continue to add more cities and update this cities hour by hour. All matrix impacts can be viewed at http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm

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WFOOUN has extended the High Wind Warning to cover the NW 2/3rds of the CWA now, with sustained winds of 35-45MPH gusting up to 60MPH expected this evening and blowing dust in the forecast. Not nearly as exciting as a blizzard, but hey, what's the difference between snowflakes and dust among friends? ;)

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2176

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1047 AM CST WED DEC 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/E-CNTRL CO...NWRN/W-CNTRL/N-CNTRL

KS...SWRN/S-CNTRL/CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD

VALID 191647Z - 192245Z

SUMMARY...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 19Z ACROSS PARTS OF

CO/NEB/KS...AND SPREAD EWD/ENEWD INTO THE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...STRONG SFC CYCLOGENESIS

WILL OCCUR OVER SWRN KS AND THE OK PANHANDLE AS STRONG DCVA LEADING

AN APPROACHING PV MAX OVERTAKES A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL

BAROCLINICITY. THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW WILL TRACK EWD NEAR OR JUST

NORTH OF THE KS/OK BORDER THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHILE A VERY TIGHT

SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT W/NW OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW SUPPORTS

NNWLY/NLY WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH. THESE

WINDS WILL SPREAD EWD/ENEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AFTER 19Z.

THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM E-CNTRL/NERN CO EWD

ACROSS NWRN/W-CNTRL/N-CNTRL KS AND SWRN/S-CNTRL NEB. SUPPORT FOR

THESE WINDS WILL EMANATE FROM 40-50 KT OF 0-1-KM MEAN FLOW PER

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AMIDST STEEP SFC-1-KM-AGL LAPSE RATES DRIVEN BY

INCREASING COLD ADVECTION WITH HEIGHT JUST ABOVE THE SFC.

STRONG 850-500-MB FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING WITHIN THE DEFORMATION

ZONE OF THE CYCLONE WILL SUPPORT ASCENT OVERLAPPING WITH THE

DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO YIELD AN EWD/ENEWD-DEVELOPING BAND OF HEAVY

SNOW WITH RATES OF 1-1.5 IN/HR. THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE

SUGGESTS THAT THIS BAND WILL DEVELOP EWD/ENEWD FROM PARTS OF NERN CO

INTO NWRN/N-CNTRL KS AND ACROSS SWRN/S-CNTRL NEB. WEAK ELEVATED

BUOYANCY MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WITHIN THE

HEAVIEST SNOW BURSTS.

THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS WILL SUPPORT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS

ASSOCIATED WITH VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE-QUARTER MILE AND BLOWING SNOW

ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LIES WITHIN THE OVERLAPPING AREAS OF HIGHEST

CONFIDENCE FOR 1-1.5-IN/HR SNOW RATES AND STRONGEST WINDS -- I.E.

FROM NERN CO ENEWD INTO S-CNTRL NEB.

..COHEN.. 12/19/2012

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WFOOUN has extended the High Wind Warning to cover the NW 2/3rds of the CWA now, with sustained winds of 35-45MPH gusting up to 60MPH expected this evening and blowing dust in the forecast. Not nearly as exciting as a blizzard, but hey, what's the difference between snowflakes and dust among friends? ;)

Plains weather really does get better than this ;)

Joking aside, I love this stuff. Leeside cyclones top my list for favorite synoptic cyclones in the US.

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SmartCast Update 19 Dec/16Z to 20 Dec/16Z

Omaha Region: Tracking Snowfall beginning around 21Z through 20/14Z. Heaviest period of snow will be from 01Z to 10Z, with snowfall rates approaching 1.8” per hour. In addition, winds will increase to gusts up to 35 to 42MPH from 02Z to 10Z, causing blizzard like conditions. Snowfall potential of 14.8” possible for this region.

Dubuque Region: Snow beginning around 18Z, increasing in intensity around 09Z through 20/16Z. Snowfall rates of up to 1.9” possible through this time frame. Blizzard conditions will exist from 08Z through 16Z, with winds gusting up to 30-35MPH in this time frame. Snowfall potential of 14.5” possible in this area.

Cedar Rapids Region: Snow will begin around 21Z and increase around 06Z through 16Z. Heaviest snowfall will occur from 08Z to 14Z, with snowfall rates of up to 1.6” possible during this timeframe. Blizzard like conditions will exist from 06Z to 16Z, with winds gusting up to 38 to 46MPH, especially towards the 16Z time frame. Snowfall potential of 13.6” possible.

Lincoln Region: Tracking snow from 22Z to 14Z, with 02Z to 08Z as the period of heaviest snow. Snowfall rates of 1.8” possible during this time. In addition, blizzard conditions will develop from 01Z to 09Z, with winds gusting from 35 to 42MPH through the time frame. Snowfall potential of 12.6” possible.

Other areas that are on track for 8”+ of snowfall are Grand Island (11”), Fort Dodge (10.3”), McCook (9.1”). In addition areas across KS and NE will see snowfall from 2 to 6” possible and winds gusts ranging from 44 to as high as 59MPH possible, which will create blizzard conditions across the entire area.

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