Weather Models

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

I have heard so much talk lately about the failures of the long range models and rightfully so. Let's just take a step back to the days of forecasting without the models. What would your long forecast look like for the next two weeks based off of climo, SST's and analogs? Let's face it the computer generated weather models are strictly used for guidance only......right? Anyone can look at a computer screen these days and make a guess. Give me your thoughts as to why you think the weather will be warm, cold, average, rainy, snowy. etc...

[jburns]

I have heard so much talk lately about the failures of the long range models and rightfully so. Let's just take a step back to the days of forecasting without the models. What would your long forecast look like for the next two weeks based off of climo, SST's and analogs? Let's face it the computer generated weather models are strictly used for guidance only......right? Anyone can look at a computer screen these days and make a guess. Give me your thoughts as to why you think the weather will be warm, cold, average, rainy, snowy. etc...

Rapidly becoming a lost art.

[Cold Rain]

Ok, Mr. CAD_Wedge_NC, sir. I'll bite. The AO seems to be in a predominate negative state and it's been strongly negative. The NAO is having an easier time going negative and at the very least is in a better state than the raging positive NAOs we've seen in the past. The PDO is stoutly negative. It has been for a while and I expect it will remain negative. I'm not super excited about the recent SOI spike down or the recent modeling related to the MJO. Maybe if the SOI continues to stay south strongly and if the MJO continues to look like it will head strongly through the 1-3 phases, then I'll reconsider.

All that said, the Pacific jet will continue to be strong, and I believe that is why there is so much variablity in the longer ranges of the models. I think blocking will be around, maybe not always located most favorably, but it should wax and wane. Considering all of that, I don't see any sustained cold periods in the east over the next two weeks. We might have a 2-4 day cold shot, but I don't buy any Arctic cold, more than a quick in and out. I think we're more likely to have stormy conditions over the next couple of weeks, so more rain threats will exist.

I think we'll be fairly seasonal with hopefully some rain. Maybe, if we're lucky, we'll see the perfect timing scenario and get a winter weather event. But I think over the next couple of weeks, we'll need really good timing. The end.

[WilkesboroDude]

I think we can base it off this current week...we have waited so long (probably since Hurricane Sandy) to get any meaningful weather. This week changes everything. Rain chances, chance of high winds Friday, and cold air. I think the next two weeks will continue the new pattern. If we go another four days of an advertised winter threat, I think we will be in business....seeing how this is not a 300+ hour threat like the past has been.

[SN_Lover]

im just gonna copy/paste what i wrote in banter

yes everyone the storm is eight+ days out, but that does not mean we can't begin to see trends and begin to hypothesize what will happen. Remember sandy was forecasted way out in advance and did what the ECMWF said it would do. Not saying that the solution will 100% play out, just saying there is a chance it might. Models are getting better and better at forecasting long range scenarios nowadays.

go to banter for image.

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Ok, Mr. CAD_Wedge_NC, sir. I'll bite. The AO seems to be in a predominate negative state and it's been strongly negative. The NAO is having an easier time going negative and at the very least is in a better state than the raging positive NAOs we've seen in the past. The PDO is stoutly negative. It has been for a while and I expect it will remain negative. I'm not super excited about the recent SOI spike down or the recent modeling related to the MJO. Maybe if the SOI continues to stay south strongly and if the MJO continues to look like it will head strongly through the 1-3 phases, then I'll reconsider.

All that said, the Pacific jet will continue to be strong, and I believe that is why there is so much variablity in the longer ranges of the models. I think blocking will be around, maybe not always located most favorably, but it should wax and wane. Considering all of that, I don't see any sustained cold periods in the east over the next two weeks. We might have a 2-4 day cold shot, but I don't buy any Arctic cold, more than a quick in and out. I think we're more likely to have stormy conditions over the next couple of weeks, so more rain threats will exist.

I think we'll be fairly seasonal with hopefully some rain. Maybe, if we're lucky, we'll see the perfect timing scenario and get a winter weather event. But I think over the next couple of weeks, we'll need really good timing. The end.

Good post.... I agree with the AO being predominately negative. The Atlantic is not too shabby either..... Looks like the Pacific will decide whether or not we continue with the pattern change. For this week, I would stay close to climo.

[a5ehren]

Rapidly becoming a lost art.

There's a reason for that. The computer models are pretty good out to 5-6 days, which was fantasy land back when people were doing forecasts without them.

People here obviously get way too excited about Day 7+ on the models, but getting to the point where we are today (where <3 days is over 95% accurate) is a huge improvement over what we used to have.

[jburns]

There's a reason for that. The computer models are pretty good out to 5-6 days, which was fantasy land back when people were doing forecasts without them.

People here obviously get way too excited about Day 7+ on the models, but getting to the point where we are today (where <3 days is over 95% accurate) is a huge improvement over what we used to have.

lol I'll be waiting for the 95% of the snow shown on the three day models. To be honest, a good portion fo that 95% accuracy occurs when nothing is going on. Two straight weeks of sunny and mild in June. A month of 90+ with a 30% chance of thunderstorms in July & August.

All you have to do is read almost any storm thread.

T-5 It's too early to tell. By the 0:00 run tomorrow the models will have a better handle on things.

T-4 I don't like where the 850 line is but its early. You never want to be in the bullseye four days out. Tomorrows run will be crucial.

T-3 We could have P-type problems. The model is having trouble handling the _________ sitting over _________. Things will be clearer with tomorrows run.

T-2 Oh-oh. That looks like a warm nose developing. Someone is going to get screwed but there's still time for things to change. I can't figure out why the low jumped 200 miles north compared to yesterday. Tomorrow's 0:00 Euro will be the most important run in the history of weather forecasting.

T-1 Strong convection along the Gulf coast is showing up. That can rob us of our precip. Nothing to do but wait.

T-0 Its nowcasting time!!! Good luck!!!

[a5ehren]

lol I'll be waiting for the 95% of the snow shown on the three day models. To be honest, a good portion fo that 95% accuracy occurs when nothing is going on. Two straight weeks of sunny and mild in June. A month of 90+ with a 30% chance of thunderstorms in July & August.

All you have to do is read almost any storm thread.

T-5 It's too early to tell. By the 0:00 run tomorrow the models will have a better handle on things.

T-4 I don't like where the 850 line is but its early. You never want to be in the bullseye four days out. Tomorrows run will be crucial.

T-3 We could have P-type problems. The model is having trouble handling the _________ sitting over _________. Things will be clearer with tomorrows run.

T-2 Oh-oh. That looks like a warm nose developing. Someone is going to get screwed but there's still time for things to change. I can't figure out why the low jumped 200 miles north compared to yesterday. Tomorrow's 0:00 Euro will be the most important run in the history of weather forecasting.

T-1 Strong convection along the Gulf coast is showing up. That can rob us of our precip. Nothing to do but wait.

T-0 Its nowcasting time!!! Good luck!!!

Down here, a model showing nothing but rain at 3 days out is usually the right way to go.

From what I've seen, most of the threads go more like this:

T-5 OMG IT'S 1993 AGAIN WOO 2 FEET OF SNOW YEAH

T-4 Cold rain, the models are dumb. Can't believe we ever listen to this!

T-3 Well now it's showing some sleet/ice in [cold area near where you live]! Progress!

T-2 Hey, you guys see this? [288 hr GFS map]

T-1 Well, I guess we need the rain...look at this for next week! [384 hr GFS map]

T-0 Woo rain.