CT Rain Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 ryan you are correct, i should have said when it's time to realize none of our chances worked out. Oh I gotcha. Yeah it sucks but oh well. Sometimes meh patterns deliver and we can luck out. We can't always have luck though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Yeah but the pattern did work out as forecasted. I don't think any met on here is surprised by the turn of events. Would have been nice to have had a little luck to give us at least 1 storm threat but as modeled the pattern worked out pretty much AWT from 7-10 days out which is actually pretty impressive. This is why the average public hates mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 lol i'm cool thats why i posted with "100% respect perspective" i've noticed mets quick to be disgusted/annoyed when people seem to be upset for 5 mintues when it's time to admit a pattern didn't work out. yes the option was on the table and yes the option was on the table for anyone who likes snow to be somewhat let down things didn't go there way when it doesn't. seems normal on a board of humans dedicated to enjoying the winter. I'm not upset in the least bit. What bothers me, is the reading comprehension of this board. When we say a statement like " There looks like we may see some sort of an AK ridge develop next week. We finally flush this crap out and the chances increase for more winter like appeals. It still could be more colder and drier and nothing noteworthy, but it's the best we've seen yet." It gets turned into this.."Wow winter finally comes in, the Euro ensembles day 8 show a snowstorm so we have that, Scooter sounds like winter is violently approaching." For some reason, the statements revealing how it might not work out get ignored and then everyone goes handlebars when the pattern isn't cold or snowy. Read the Met's posts fully. I can't stress that enough. Everyone here knows what I mean, I sure know all the mets do. I also said yesterday that post 10th certainly didn't work out as hoped. I have no problem admitting that whatsoever. It's meteorology...if you can't take the heat, then stay out of the kitchen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 There are so many other thing to be concerned about in this world. I'm about to bring my wife back to the hospital, the shootings the other day. Who gives a flying puck that we don't have 20" of snow by NYE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 There are so many other thing to be concerned about in this world. I'm about to bring my wife back to the hospital, the shootings the other day. Who gives a flying puck that we don't have 20" of snow by NYE. I hope everything is ok Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 This is why the average public hates mets. Yes... because on the air we talk about D10-D14 weather patterns lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 25.5/14 awaiting a snowy day. Can't ask for much more even if it'll only be an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 SN with good flakes 25.4/22 (temp/dp converging) Once out of the valley, the middle and sides of Rt. 2 were covered. Secondary and tertiary roads covered. Might wind up with my biggest event of the year--that's a frightening thought that that would be the case in mid-December. Alas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I also said yesterday that post 10th certainly didn't work out as hoped. I have no problem admitting that whatsoever. It's meteorology...if you can't take the heat, then stay out of the kitchen. Exactly. There was certainly hope things would break right. While it never looked cold with this kind of pattern we had the chance of pulling something out. We just couldn't do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Exactly. There was certainly hope things would break right. While it never looked cold with this kind of pattern we had the chance of pulling something out. We just couldn't do it. Sometimes things like a crappy Pacific just linger longer. There's nothing we can do. I know people always hate when you talk about how it may happen, but also how it may not happen and can't give a concrete ansswer. However, that is weather. You have to explain all possibilties because that's what we face everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The temperature here is hovering just below freezing, should wetbulb and likely get a coating. An inch if lucky. Presently nothing going on outside. Just to have a feel of snow is a step in right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Lost business to sandy cus lost home seat east queeens war zone red hook the poor of the poor wiped no food stores for miles Fri. took the cake with pure evil see ya .my folks the plate is FULL.Bosonfella and the ole timers i hope everyone is well and their families Hey Jeff....so sorry you had to go through this! You'll always be an original. My thoughts are with you and if snow doesn't hurt you in this situation but make it more enjoyable for you...bring it! Although I think we're in a snowless rut...lol. My thoughts are with you buddy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 SNE isn't on the edge. Not anywhere near it. It could always work out well or crappy. That's not saying anything. please go back to telling us about what each of the individual gfs ensemble members are showing. that was riveting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 This is why the average public hates mets. hopefully you won't last much longer around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I kind of think that the warmer resolution will have shifted what had yesterday been the "north of the mass pike" to more of a "north of Rt. 2" scenario with the timing of the mix/changeover moving correspondingly earlier. Long and short of my thinking is that I'll enjoy this wintry spell for the short while I think it'll last. Snow's easing off after the initial nice burst, down to 24.9/22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Yes... because on the air we talk about D10-D14 weather patterns lol. This is nonsense. The public is led to believe that meteorologist have more predictive abilities than they actually possess. Mets are obligated to express a high degree of confidence and certainty, to develop and maintain an aura of credibility. And then the public evaluates those prediction based on overly simplistic metrics, like is it warm or cold... did it rain or snow? Which is unfair of course. But then at the last minute the met changes his or her forecast, with a smile, and pretends like he had it right all along. This was not a well forecasted period by anybody, unless your only criteria is the most basic global flow pattern. Back to back to back rain storms to Canada (if it happens) was not anticipated, nor was a "pattern" that could support such a sequence. Saying things didn't break right but we had it basically right overall is blatantly dishonest, lazy, and a little insulting. Blaming it on the Pacific is obscenely oversimplistic. Or that the gradient set up too far north. That's the kind of thinking I used in middle school reading Gary Grey. What would it have to look like for someone to say they got it wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I'm not upset in the least bit. What bothers me, is the reading comprehension of this board. When we say a statement like " There looks like we may see some sort of an AK ridge develop next week. We finally flush this crap out and the chances increase for more winter like appeals. It still could be more colder and drier and nothing noteworthy, but it's the best we've seen yet." It gets turned into this.."Wow winter finally comes in, the Euro ensembles day 8 show a snowstorm so we have that, Scooter sounds like winter is violently approaching." For some reason, the statements revealing how it might not work out get ignored and then everyone goes handlebars when the pattern isn't cold or snowy. Read the Met's posts fully. I can't stress that enough. Everyone here knows what I mean, I sure know all the mets do. I also said yesterday that post 10th certainly didn't work out as hoped. I have no problem admitting that whatsoever. It's meteorology...if you can't take the heat, then stay out of the kitchen. scott the funny thing is one can't really discuss things not trending favorable, cause its often deemed " a meltdown" or some say the board is "unreadable". also, as I said to ryan I should have used "when none of our chances worked out" instead of pattern.snow lovers should not have a zero tolerance allotment of displaying dissapointment when none of our chances work out. It doesn't take a degree from harvard to understand people comprehend some patterns don't work out but we can still display a tiny bit of dissapointment when it becomes obvious they won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 There's a whole lot of non-obs going on here, folks. More appropriae for the banter or argument thread perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 windy sheet drizzle 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Sometimes things like a crappy Pacific just linger longer. There's nothing we can do. I know people always hate when you talk about how it may happen, but also how it may not happen and can't give a concrete ansswer. However, that is weather. You have to explain all possibilties because that's what we face everyday. Which is why we're still essentially at the mercy of weather models. And why the long range has very little utility in synoptic forecasting. I have been arguing for days that the mid range is the time to spot snowstorms (5-7 days... 8 if you're pushing it). And I think the latest developments help support that argument. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Off to Northboro--anything of note along the way obs wise, I'll pass along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 There's a whole lot of non-obs going on here, folks. More appropriae for the banter or argument thread perhaps? True story. Snow accumulating ... nice dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Light snow in Northampton/Amherst for about a half hour, but has tailed off now. Growth was ok initially, but got smaller quickly. Warm air apparently already present somewhere in the column and hard to think it gets much better. Looking forward to pics of snowmobile gangs terrorizing the trails in Maine later. Go pats tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 True story. Snow accumulating ... nice dendrites. That weenie band came through here and i snowed for 20mins, but it has since sublimated with RHs running around 40-50%. 22/9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 True story. Snow accumulating ... nice dendrites. Good luck, Eric--the entire SNE group is experiencing this vicariously through you and Jeff. Snows eased off to a veil of small flakes. Temps continue to slowly tick downward--that won't last for much longer, ftl. 24.8/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 True story. Snow accumulating ... nice dendrites. Radar drying up as it is moving towards here into this very cold dry airmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 please go back to telling us about what each of the individual gfs ensemble members are showing. that was riveting. This is a useless post. You offer nothing. Synoptic forecasting is largely about statistics and probability. The ensemble spread at different time intervals (and its evolution) speaks to the relative probability of certain events unfolding. If we hypothesize that the final solution is within the ensemble envelope (often an incorrect assumption), the inter model ensemble overlap and outliers is both interesting and useful. It often sounds to me that your grasp of concepts is relatively shallow. Please prove me wrong on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 hopefully you won't last much longer around here. Post something intelligent. Anything. On any topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Which is why we're still essentially at the mercy of weather models. And why the long range has very little utility in synoptic forecasting. I have been arguing for days that the mid range is the time to spot snowstorms (5-7 days... 8 if you're pushing it). And I think the latest developments help support that argument. Of course that time period is best for individual events. That's not breaking news. You are an angry individual. We try and act a bit more friendly around here. And I honestly hope you take some time away from the board or mods do it for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Post something intelligent. Anything. On any topic. What do you want to talk about? I come here to shoot the sh*t about the weather. It's not about proving who the smartest person is or is not. I use this board to sift through ideas, post a few thoughts, listen to the thoughts of others and keep in touch with friends. You apparently use this board as an outlet for frustration on a number of levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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