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December 16-17 wintry obs/discussion


ORH_wxman

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26.3/18

meso models like the hrrr start rampin up precip around 3pm in the area ray, it's gonna be close but if you scroll thru the hours, it shows a decent shot of precip from 3pm to midnite. and actually right thru noon tommorrow. you could sneak in a couple. NE mass away from coast could still see a few before it washes away tues. better than nothing, if if if it happens

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26.3/18

meso models like the hrrr start rampin up precip around 3pm in the area ray, it's gonna be close but if you scroll thru the hours, it shows a decent shot of precip from 3pm to midnite. and actually right thru noon tommorrow. you could sneak in a couple. NE mass away from coast could still see a few before it washes away tues. better than nothing, if if if it happens

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/rad8.html

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Yes pickles I said its the best looking deal we've seen yet, but I also mentioned it may not be anything noteworthy. I don't possess the skill Of forecasting snowstorms up to three weeks out. Its the best we can offer right now, so if people can't deal with more vague outlooks then I suggest a timeout.

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i don't know how many times people said that new england would be on the edge. it was said over and over again that this could work out really well or also kind of crappy.

i don't understand where this notion came from that this was going to be an extended period of hvy hvy snow

SNE isn't on the edge. Not anywhere near it. It could always work out well or crappy. That's not saying anything.

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yeah....been watching that . KLWM has dpt of 15 right now. some sort of cf will probably form to some degree and perhaps enhance snowfall for you ray and myself if the draining continues and ne wind holds.

12z nam keep 0c 850 very close for NE mass still. the 0c 850 line has been bouncing around between manchester,nh and just north of boston for several runs, so if any sort of north-northeast flow is established just away from coast in NE mass perhaps some sneaky snow for like n. andover, boxford, haverhill , north reading area perhaps later tonite.

eekster and scott were posting how their local respective models were showing a cold push coming out of nh sometime tonite as well.

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Yes pickles I said its the best looking deal we've seen yet, but I also mentioned it may not be anything noteworthy. I don't possess the skill Of forecasting snowstorms up to three weeks out. Its the best we can offer right now, so if people can't deal with more vague outlooks then I suggest a timeout.

lol i'm cool

thats why i posted with "100% respect perspective"

i've noticed mets quick to be disgusted/annoyed when people seem to be upset for 5 mintues when admitting a pattern didn't work out. yes the option was on the table and yes the option was on the table for anyone who likes snow to be somewhat let down things didn't go there way when it doesn't. seems normal on a board of humans dedicated to enjoying the winter.

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lol i'm cool

thats why i posted with "100% respect perspective"

i've noticed mets quick to be disgusted/annoyed when people seem to be upset for 5 mintues when it's time to admit a pattern didn't work out. yes the option was on the table and yes the option was on the table for anyone who likes snow to be somewhat let down things didn't go there way when it doesn't. seems normal on a board of humans dedicated to enjoying the winter.

Yeah but the pattern did work out as forecasted. I don't think any met on here is surprised by the turn of events. Would have been nice to have had a little luck to give us at least 1 storm threat but as modeled the pattern worked out pretty much AWT from 7-10 days out which is actually pretty impressive.

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Wrong. Your posts are some of the worst on the board.

Quote one and tell me why. There is so much BS on this board. And you think you are a much better forecaster than you are.

There isn't a single met that got this regime anywhere close from 7 days out. Even 5 days out was terrible. I repeatedly argued that the trof axis was too far west and that the predicted NAO state could not influence the future storm track. The responses I got from mets was way off base. Part of the problem is the lack of distinction from really experienced forecasters, researchers, phDs etc and people who have a bachelors degree and think they understand the MJO.

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Yeah but the pattern did work out as forecasted. I don't think any met on here is surprised by the turn of events. Would have been nice to have had a little luck to give us at least 1 storm threat but as modeled the pattern worked out pretty much AWT from 7-10 days out which is actually pretty impressive.

ryan you are correct, i should have said when it's time to realize none of our chances worked out.

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