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December 16-17 wintry obs/discussion


ORH_wxman

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i don't know how many times people said that new england would be on the edge. it was said over and over again that this could work out really well or also kind of crappy.

i don't understand where this notion came from that this was going to be an extended period of hvy hvy snow

I think it came from the fact that the past few "gradient" patterns have produced for us....the term gradient pattern has become synonymous with a regime which favors most of sne points N....well, the difference here is that the gradient is much farther north because the PAC has locked out the arctic air.

Look at Dec 2007.....it was a pos NAO, but with a favorable Pacific.

The EPO is more important and it has worked for us in gradient patterns of recent years...here, it is working against us, and all we have is a skunked NAO block.

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i don't know how many times people said that new england would be on the edge. it was said over and over again that this could work out really well or also kind of crappy.

i don't understand where this notion came from that this was going to be an extended period of hvy hvy snow

i personally never thought that but i do remember and i'm saying this from a 100% respectful perspective that two days ago scooter and i think you were saying they really were excited for the week after this coming one, and weenies were like here we go again, and now it seems that excitement you guys had is already muted.

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These early season snows have really messed people up. Today is a spot on climo day here, winds were howling this morning at the beach, grey skies wind blown drizzle and temps near 40. It amazes me how people so quickly forget 10-11, the best winter I have ever experienced second to 95-96.

I remember the despair in December 10 as we had two cutters a near miss and then the hammer dropped on Boxing Day. I think getting normal snowfall this winter will be fantastic and very attainable anything else is gravy, things should get better next month before a potential torch early Jan.

Cold and raw early winter morning, things could be worse............a LOT worse.

post-865-0-06093800-1355667909_thumb.jpg

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12z nam keep 0c 850 very close for NE mass still. the 0c 850 line has been bouncing around between manchester,nh and just north of boston for several runs, so if any sort of north-northeast flow is established just away from coast in NE mass perhaps some sneaky snow for like n. andover, boxford, haverhill , north reading area perhaps later tonite.

eekster and scott were posting how their local respective models were showing a cold push coming out of nh sometime tonite as well.

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Lost business to sandy cus lost home seat east queeens war zone red hook the poor of the poor wiped no food stores for miles Fri. took the cake with pure evil see ya .my folks the plate is FULL.Bosonfella and the ole timers i hope everyone is well and their families

Mulen I thought of you often, prayers are with you. I hope things work out. You do make me laugh, I see you did not lose your sense of humor, see ya.
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Even up there they've got several rainers..noone thought that..Not one person EVER mentioned rainers in ski country

Oh that was definitely a possibility and I'm pretty sure I mentioned that several times. No one likes to listen to it when the models were showing snow/ice in SNE, but the ensembles always had members that were rain to Buffalo and Montreal.

That's why the cone of possibilities was said to be Buffalo to Bermuda (some thought that was a joke). On the flip side, those storms could have gotten crushed by a fast PAC flow and ended up going out to sea and impacting no one. The end result is the same, its not snowing.

We (the board concensus) suck it up and move on. Still got a lot of winter time left to go there dude. Its the holiday's... be happy for whatever we've got.

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Kevin has had 12.5" on the season through the first half of Decemeber, and is melting down.....dude, you have like 200% of climo right now. :lol:

That means nothing. It's December it's winter. We've had no snow in one if our 3 winter months. We lose this whole month now. It's not melting down. It's just reality mixed with bewilderment
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While it looked like we could get wintry many of us thought it would take some luck. Unfortunately all 3 storms aren't breaking our way... but what are you going to do. This isn't really surprising to me though I certainly hoped it would have been different.

Exactly... the shame is on folks that lock things in on day 7 model runs. I'm usually quite conservative and skeptical of snow to the point of it being a complex (folks at the mountain thought I was low balling them when I mentioned general light snowfall amounts this week) but the way you forecast accurately is stay conservative for a long time until it is a slam dunk. Then you ramp it up.

There's no need to talk about feet of snow for days and days when you are still 144-192 hours out.

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I think it came from the fact that the past few "gradient" patterns have produced for us....the term gradient pattern has become synonymous with a regime which favors most of sne points N....well, the difference here is that the gradient is much farther north because the PAC has locked out the arctic air.

Yeah the gradient is still there... up here we don't look to get much except some upslope on the backside or changeover to sloppy coating-couple inches.... but southern Canada gets absolutely bombed a couple times this week just north of the border.

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i personally never though that but i do remember and i'm saying this from a 100% respectful perspective that two days ago scooter and i think you were saying they really were excited for the week after this coming one, and weenies were like here we go again, and now it seems that excitement you guys had is already muted.

i don't know...i'm not expecting jan 05 but i feel like it's a better look than we've seen in quite a while. it could certainly end up doing nothing noteworthy but at least it's not a guarantee fail pattern. i don't think we are headed to back to back horrendous winters.

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