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December 16-17 wintry obs/discussion


ORH_wxman

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31.7 here, and temp hasn't moved much in the last few hours. Feels colder than 31. Don't think icing will be much of a concern here at 490ft, but the northwest part of town towards the Union line might see some.

The temps/dews that ended up being a tick warmer than expected have diminished the risk of that. BOX seems pretty confident in the areas north of the pike staying chilly--and here I am almost 40 miles north of the pike and my p/c has me at 33.

Not that it matters a whole lot with this system, but BOX has expanded the coverage of it's 1-2" area considerably.

26.7/21

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Going to be some light, low-level stuff that develops later today. Will take sometime but it may wind up developing overhead as opposed to "moving in".

Being so light and low level, will it even be snow, be able to develop nuclei or whatever you call it?

6zgfs was hideous, cutter after cutter after cutter ugh.

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Going to be some light, low-level stuff that develops later today. Will take sometime but it may wind up developing overhead as opposed to "moving in".

Aside from some possible --SN type stuff falling in NH/VT right now, the NAM12 says between 12 and 15z we will really see WAA saturate the column down over the Tri-State area and spread north pretty quickly. I'll generate a couple more maps to better illustrate that in a second. Pictures are much better than my midnight shift incoherent thoughts.

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Being so light and low level, will it even be snow, be able to develop nuclei or whatever you call it?

6zgfs was hideous, cutter after cutter after cutter ugh.

Yes--it was not a pretty sight.

Meanwhile--this looks ugly for any prolonged (or any) icing for the vast majority of SNE geography and population.

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You can see how much the NAM12 saturates between 12 and 15z by looking at the 285 K surface. It actually is doing a pretty good job at 12z of showing that band of colder cloud tops stretching through VT and NH (probably spitting out some P6SM snow too).

If this plays out it probably will pretty much develop overhead as you say Ryan.

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Yeah NNE doesn't need a miracle. It's all about that primary. A NAM/Euro blend is definitely possible in which case Northern VT NH and interior ME do ok.

Its almost got an elevation snow look to it across the northern tier... especially once the secondary gets going and cuts off mid-level warmth.

I'm starting to feel that the upper elevations of the ski resorts across the north could do ok if it keeps trending. Jay Peak to Sunday River/Sugarloaf definitely have the advantage in this one.

Otherwise...riviting looking regional radar for this first wave:

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3 storms that track south of us and we end up with 3 40 degree rainstorms. I've just never seen anything like it. Something is inherently wrong with modelling, the climate and the atmosphere

Meh.

I disagree. There's just not much cold. I think people have been spoiled by recent Decembers. The storm that moves in Monday night moves over BGM lol.

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3 storms that track south of us and we end up with 3 40 degree rainstorms. I've just never seen anything like it. Something is inherently wrong with modelling, the climate and the atmosphere

The primary's are just too far west... same with the trough axis. Its a cutter pattern and if we didn't have any block it would be a series of 60F+ rainstorms. That's the disgusting thought. However that axis moves east a bit and we'd get slammed with three in a row. Just bad luck.

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The primary's are just too far west... same with the trough axis. Its a cutter pattern and if we didn't have any block it would be a series of 60F+ rainstorms. That's the disgusting thought. However that axis moves east a bit and we'd get slammed with three in a row. Just bad luck.

With secondaries forming..we usually can get snow to mix events witha block. That's what i mean..primaries cut west of us plenty of times..We can usually hold in enough cold for some frozen. It's not like it used to be. It's dishearetening

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