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December 16-17 wintry obs/discussion


ORH_wxman

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A little weenie cold air tuck in NE Mass? I think so, BVY went from NE winds and 39/36 to NW winds and 33/31.

looks like that CF waffled over them for an hour. Back up to 39. 3 miles west in East peabody still 32.5.

32 here in wakefield,ma with bushes iced over and railings iced over, but just warm enuf to keep ice to only the coldest surfaces. N and W of here diff story.

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Those mtn totals could be slightly over done but up to 2' may not be out of the question, I would take the 5-9" here, Could also be both storms combined

I'm sure it's for both, and if the 2nd storm is as juicy as now progged, places above 2K could be in for a major dump. I've got 6-7" new at the moment, and GYX has my zone getting another 6-12" thru Wed sunrise. That fits with the 9-14" shown on that map.

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NAM rolling. Keeps Maine and central, northern NH snowing all day through tonight. I can't believe we didn't get warnings. I am over 6 now at 21.9F.

Interior Cumberland is a tough zone to warn for. You have the higher terrain of the foothills that cleans up in events like this, then down by our office you have 3-4". Nice snow, but not a warning. Verification is on zone average totals, and I would bet interior Cumberland ends up 50/50 split above and below criteria.

Basically by the time reports started coming in, it was too late and counterproductive to upgrade the advisory. Otherwise I'm really happy with how our headlines/forecast turned out.

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NAM rolling. Keeps Maine and central, northern NH snowing all day through tonight. I can't believe we didn't get warnings. I am over 6 now at 21.9F.

I haven't looked at soundings, but I'd guess it may not be cold enough aloft for nucleation in C NH. We're not close to warning criteria either. The NAM is pretty warm in the mid levels for storm 2, but with a continous NE flow I wonder if we see some icing issues...especially over the 1k elevations.
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Interior Cumberland is a tough zone to warn for. You have the higher terrain of the foothills that cleans up in events like this, then down by our office you have 3-4". Nice snow, but not a warning. Verification is on zone average totals, and I would bet interior Cumberland ends up 50/50 split above and below criteria.

Basically by the time reports started coming in, it was too late and counterproductive to upgrade the advisory. Otherwise I'm really happy with how our headlines/forecast turned out.

I certainly don't envy you; uniquely challenging geography and a tricky series of systems. What do you think are the chances that the SW Maine CP has snow on the ground on Saturday?

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Interior Cumberland is a tough zone to warn for. You have the higher terrain of the foothills that cleans up in events like this, then down by our office you have 3-4". Nice snow, but not a warning. Verification is on zone average totals, and I would bet interior Cumberland ends up 50/50 split above and below criteria.

Basically by the time reports started coming in, it was too late and counterproductive to upgrade the advisory. Otherwise I'm really happy with how our headlines/forecast turned out.

Yeah, I bet it can be a nightmare to forecast with the ocean 21 miles from me.

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Interior Cumberland is a tough zone to warn for. You have the higher terrain of the foothills that cleans up in events like this, then down by our office you have 3-4". Nice snow, but not a warning. Verification is on zone average totals, and I would bet interior Cumberland ends up 50/50 split above and below criteria.

Basically by the time reports started coming in, it was too late and counterproductive to upgrade the advisory. Otherwise I'm really happy with how our headlines/forecast turned out.

You guys have done a great job with this one head line wise, Pretty much spot on being as tough as it is to decide when to cut off the 1st and start headlines for the 2nd wave

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I haven't looked at soundings, but I'd guess it may not be cold enough aloft for nucleation in C NH. We're not close to warning criteria either. The NAM is pretty warm in the mid levels for storm 2, but with a continous NE flow I wonder if we see some icing issues...especially over the 1k elevations.

I have a hunch we'll see more ZR than modeled, especially given the low level environment primed for it. However, I do wonder if we don't necessarily torch aloft (i.e. 1 or 2C) and get more of an IP look than ZR to the soundings.

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32.4° F here with a very slight glaze on the trees. Had some intermittent light sleet and freezing drizzle yesterday, but we were shadowed from more significant freezing drizzle last night. Downslope flow on NE winds will often dry out that low level drizzle stuff around here.

I'm liking the potential for some upslope snows on the backside of these next 2 lows down the west side of the Greens, Taconics, and Berkshires. While there may be some action after the first low, I think it will be fairly limited and scope and short lasting down this way should it occur at all. Temperatures are marginal too. Up north, it will probably be better though.

The threat looks much better for low #2 later this week as it occludes north of us and moisture gets wrapped around with CAA and maybe even some LES as well. The 00Z Euro suggests a possible long duration upslope snow shower event after event #2 even down here as the low stalls and there is plenty of synoptic moisture in its wake. This could lead to some accumulation and provide my best shot at a white Christmas.

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