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December 16-17 wintry obs/discussion


ORH_wxman

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Not hard to see where the cold source is, lol...sea coast of NH and coast of ME sticks out like a sore thumb

fwiw, it's been 25.5 here in Ayer the whole time and hasn't budged since mid afternoon. However, it was essentially calm earlier, now this under the radar junk is waving around.

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Looks like its inching its way towards me area, do you think it will go a little more south or is it stopped Will?

I honestly couldn't tell you...there's a southward limit to these pushes...obviously...otherwise NYC would eventually turn to ZR. But may guess is this does tick SW for a time...but not sure if it gets S ORH county. Prob N ORH county...we'll see. This is what makes these events fascinating nowcast events.

Not a single model...even the weenie 4km models....had Ray at 27F and falling right now.

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I honestly couldn't tell you...there's a southward limit to these pushes...obviously...otherwise NYC would eventually turn to ZR. But may guess is this does tick SW for a time...but not sure if it gets S ORH county. Prob N ORH county...we'll see. This is what makes these events fascinating nowcast events.

Not a single model...even the weenie 4km models....had Ray at 27F and falling right now.

I'm JUST far enough north, east, and west....right at the edge of this airmass lol

Wish it were a big snowstorm.

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I honestly couldn't tell you...there's a southward limit to these pushes...obviously...otherwise NYC would eventually turn to ZR. But may guess is this does tick SW for a time...but not sure if it gets S ORH county. Prob N ORH county...we'll see. This is what makes these events fascinating nowcast events.

Not a single model...even the weenie 4km models....had Ray at 27F and falling right now.

the tampontip model did!

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I honestly couldn't tell you...there's a southward limit to these pushes...obviously...otherwise NYC would eventually turn to ZR. But may guess is this does tick SW for a time...but not sure if it gets S ORH county. Prob N ORH county...we'll see. This is what makes these events fascinating nowcast events.

Not a single model...even the weenie 4km models....had Ray at 27F and falling right now.

Just for scoring purposes, I think the GFS has Ray around 40F right now...good reason to never ever look at this model for LL CAD setups. Completely useless. The models have their strengths...but CAD isn't one of them.

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