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December 16-17 wintry obs/discussion


ORH_wxman

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28/27 freezing drizzle w/ occasional flakes. everything coated. Hope it lasts until sunrise.

chris--how was the trek back from Salem? We attempted the ride to Northboro via Rt. 2 at 11:30a.m. Passed three accidents before we got through Turner's. Turned back and took the Pike. figured you had a hellish trip coming back that way.

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Tough ride home--290 through ORH was a total mess. Numerous spinouts every 1/4-1/3 mile it seemed. And still, idiots are driving fast. I'm baffled how their minds work....

Things were fine when I got to the Pike, 91 was pretty decent too. Once I hit the Mohawk Trail, things went to crap again. Big accident up on the trail in Shelburne temporarily closing Rt. 2

I saw dozens of car casualties on my ride down Rt 2 this afternoon. Many were SUV's. People are way to careless.

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I saw dozens of car casualties on my ride down Rt 2 this afternoon. Many were SUV's. People are way to careless.

I saw about 4 accidents on 290...and another 2 on 190 heading back home about 4 hours ago. People just don't respect the power of even a little bit of freezing rain. Its very dangerous stuff.

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mcd2166.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2166

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0719 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PARTS OF UPSTATE NY...NRN CT...MUCH OF

VT...WRN/CNTRL MA...SWRN/W-CNTRL NH

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 170119Z - 170645Z

SUMMARY...THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 04Z. FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES OF 0.05

INCH PER 3 HOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO...SNOW RATES APPROACHING 1

IN/HR MAY OCCUR FROM CNTRL/ERN VT INTO W-CNTRL NH AFTER 10Z.

DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE LATER THIS

EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGES

DEPICT THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE ERN-CONUS BAROCLINIC LEAF

STRUCTURE ADVANCING NEWD TOWARD THE NERN STATES. EMBEDDED WITHIN

THIS FEATURE...AN UPPER-LEVEL...QUASI-HORIZONTALLY COUPLED JET

STRUCTURE WILL CROSS THE AREA...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE

LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE WILL BOTH /1/ MAINTAIN A MODEST WARM

ADVECTION REGIME AND /2/ STIMULATE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NY/NJ

COAST. THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE

COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION AFTER 04Z...AS AFFIRMED BY

CONSENSUS AMONGST HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE.

FORECAST/00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A WARM LAYER NEAR OR

JUST BELOW 850 MB FEATURING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -3.5C AND

-1C...ATOP NOCTURNALLY REINFORCED SUB-FREEZING SFC

TEMPERATURES...WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.

FREEZING RAIN RATES AROUND 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES APPROACHING 1

IN/HR...MAY OCCUR FROM CNTRL/ERN VT INTO W-CNTRL NH AFTER 10Z...AS

PRECIPITATION INTERACTS WITH PREDOMINANTLY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES

THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE. OF NOTE...ACROSS PARTS OF THE HUDSON

RIVER VALLEY NEAR AND S OF ALBANY...THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE

LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WRN SLOPES OF THE TACONIC MOUNTAINS SHOULD

SUPPORT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH SFC TEMPERATURES FOR MAINLY RAIN.

..COHEN.. 12/17/2012

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startede as light snow here in manchester NH around 4:00 when precip got real light it was freezing drizzle now it is light snow again maybe an inch so far if lucky! hoping we stay cold enough on all layers to stay snow when the heavy slug comes thru! was hoping nam would be colder for tuesday but no such luck!

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mcd2166.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2166

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0719 PM CST SUN DEC 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PARTS OF UPSTATE NY...NRN CT...MUCH OF

VT...WRN/CNTRL MA...SWRN/W-CNTRL NH

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 170119Z - 170645Z

SUMMARY...THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER 04Z. FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES OF 0.05

INCH PER 3 HOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO...SNOW RATES APPROACHING 1

IN/HR MAY OCCUR FROM CNTRL/ERN VT INTO W-CNTRL NH AFTER 10Z.

DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE LATER THIS

EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGES

DEPICT THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE ERN-CONUS BAROCLINIC LEAF

STRUCTURE ADVANCING NEWD TOWARD THE NERN STATES. EMBEDDED WITHIN

THIS FEATURE...AN UPPER-LEVEL...QUASI-HORIZONTALLY COUPLED JET

STRUCTURE WILL CROSS THE AREA...MAXIMIZING UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE

LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE WILL BOTH /1/ MAINTAIN A MODEST WARM

ADVECTION REGIME AND /2/ STIMULATE WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE NY/NJ

COAST. THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE

COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION AFTER 04Z...AS AFFIRMED BY

CONSENSUS AMONGST HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE.

FORECAST/00Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A WARM LAYER NEAR OR

JUST BELOW 850 MB FEATURING TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -3.5C AND

-1C...ATOP NOCTURNALLY REINFORCED SUB-FREEZING SFC

TEMPERATURES...WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET.

FREEZING RAIN RATES AROUND 0.05 INCH PER 3 HOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES APPROACHING 1

IN/HR...MAY OCCUR FROM CNTRL/ERN VT INTO W-CNTRL NH AFTER 10Z...AS

PRECIPITATION INTERACTS WITH PREDOMINANTLY SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES

THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE. OF NOTE...ACROSS PARTS OF THE HUDSON

RIVER VALLEY NEAR AND S OF ALBANY...THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT OF THE

LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WRN SLOPES OF THE TACONIC MOUNTAINS SHOULD

SUPPORT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH SFC TEMPERATURES FOR MAINLY RAIN.

..COHEN.. 12/17/2012

Hi.

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Temp has dropped back to 26.0F from 26.4F about half an hour ago. ORH is at 29F with a pretty good east wind. Kind of weird I'm 3F colder than them...though they could be more like 28.5F...but still a decent difference. Wonder if they will tick down next hour. First time I had stopped rising for a few hours.

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Nice to have a night actually look like Christmas.....driving down this afternoon, roads were slick until I hit rt 128....then in s Woburn, not a flake ont he ground with rainfall.....then, as you got back to Woburn center, there was a coating.

Snow only made it to about Woburn center...south side of town was barren.

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