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December 16-17 wintry obs/discussion


ORH_wxman

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Which is why we're still essentially at the mercy of weather models. And why the long range has very little utility in synoptic forecasting. I have been arguing for days that the mid range is the time to spot snowstorms (5-7 days... 8 if you're pushing it). And I think the latest developments help support that argument.

You keep banging this long range forecasting is a pointless endeavor drum, yet completely ignore your supposed passion or short to medium range forecasting. We have an event ongoing, with significant deviations from model guidance, that requires actual human input into the forecast in order to correctly display the outcome.

Yeah the really high res meso models have done it...but even the 12km NAM couldnt get it right. It had that 34F. It did try to cool it back to 32F tonight for a time.

But we generally know the drill in these setups. Usually hack off about 5-8F on the sfc temps. Sometimes you even have to hack off more than that.

Posts, like Will's here, you gloss over. But this is meteorology. I can tell you not one piece of guidance verbatim came even close to showing this low level cold when I was doing the forecast last night. The NAM12 and local WRF models came close, had the right idea, but you manually needed to adjust readings down.

It's amazing really how much push back there is inter and intra office, regarding evolution of this event too. I hope I'm on the right side of that push back when it's all said and done, because I've been awfully aggressive on the low level cold (and subsequent wintry precip as a result).

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Looks like temp has finalyl stabilized here...not dropping anymore...sitting at 25.2F. Dew is up to 24F. The cold drain isn't really stopping though, so it will tough to see temps climb quickly...so I'd expect a very slow rise. There could even a slight cold tuck again as the first sfc reflection passes SE.

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Looks like temp has finalyl stabilized here...not dropping anymore...sitting at 25.2F. Dew is up to 24F. The cold drain isn't really stopping though, so it will tough to see temps climb quickly...so I'd expect a very slow rise. There could even a slight cold tuck again as the first sfc reflection passes SE.

When do you think we go above freezing? 30f

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