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December 16-17 wintry obs/discussion


ORH_wxman

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yeah, the more I look at this situation a positive ice bust is still possible. Though, could do a 32.9er too - just sayin'

this reminds me of so many systems in the past where the temp starts out in the mid 20s and struggles to 32, then as a wave squirts out S of the area there is a brief pulse of llv wind response and folks N of the Pike tumble back to 28 or 29 - if there were no + relative pressure N of the area, the no, but just remember late April(s) when an even weakly differential cool air mass is lodge in eastern zones with a pp N and the models try to warm sector - if anything, you end up with a backdoor! It's not a good analogy, except that it does point out how when cold is UNDER the warm and has a supplier, it's very difficult to do what the models are currently trying to do.

The more important cyclonic push Monday night may occlude because of that, too, and you pretty much have nothing to shut off the a-geostrophic vector through this thing.

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If the storm cuts, 50s later this week. As modeled, it may not be a classic cutter so perhaps 40s?

NCEP does think we sector - they're going with a broad continental occlusion scenario.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD

1059 AM EST SUN DEC 16 2012

VALID 12Z WED DEC 19 2012 - 12Z SUN DEC 23 2012

...A STORMY WINTER PATTERN FOR THE MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES AND

NORTHEAST...

THE 15-12Z AND 16-00Z GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS REMAIN IN VERY

GOOD LONGWAVE MEDIUM RANGE AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY 5-6 ACROSS THE

CONUS. AN ENERGETIC PACIFIC SYSTEM EJECTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD

THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND DEEPENS AS IT MIGRATES

NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST...GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST.

THIS SYSTEM (WHAT AMOUNTS TO A BROAD OCCLUSION ON THE SURFACE

GRAPHICS BY DAY 6) OPENS THE DOOR FOR AN APPRECIABLY COLD AND

BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN AND HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE TO SURGE

THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE GULF COAST AND

FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM SETTLES IN CENTRAL QUEBEC BY DAY 6...WITH

SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL WAVES (POSSIBLY AN ALBERTA CLIPPER-TYPE

SYSTEM) TO REINFORCE AND CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CARVE OUT THE UPPER

TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL

YIELD A GENERALLY COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE EAST OF 95W...INCLUDING

THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE MS VALLEY...THE GREAT

LAKES...NORTHEAST...THE OHIO VALLEY...AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN

MID ATLANTIC STATES.

BTW, for those that were concerned, they've expanded the advisories into NE and some interior SE zones.

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