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December 16-17 wintry obs/discussion


ORH_wxman

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Sometimes Tippys posts get me riled up a bit. "But, ..you know, sometimes I see this less as a "weather forum", and just a collecting pool of snow enthusiasts;  just happens to be that there are some Meteorologists showing up that convention from time to time.  " really dude, really. I am sure Jerry, Metherb, Cold Front and every other knowledgable hobbyist appreciate this. I have seen more cognizant science based posts from them then some degreed mets in all seasons. Just sayin...

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If anything, the CF in NE MA seemes to have sunk SE slightly...that could make for a messy time for later tonight when some steadier precip tries to move in. The CF should eventually try to move west as the E component of the wind becomes stronger, but there ageostrophic component is really strong in this whole setup, so it could be a tough battle getting that very far west.

mesomapo.jpg

Its always interesting in these setups where you can see the secondary drain of the cold air in coming down the CT River valley and banking against the Berkshires and east side of the southern Greens in S VT.

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Wow that is quite the gradient even in the ORH hills between like Union/Tolland and just north of ORH. From low 30s to low/mid 20s.

Impressive cold air drain into northern MA.

Yeah its a very classic cold drain for those northern areas when you have the Quebec high north of Maine. The cold air drains better into the CT valley and Hudson valley when we have those banana Ontario highs.

Dewpoint drain from Maine out of the NE is classic for N MA/NE MA/S NH to just pool that cold air as it banks up against the ORH hills and the secondary drain down the CT River Valley branks up against the N berkshires. It could take a really long time to get that out of the N ORH hills/N Berks speaking for SNE sensible wx. I mean, it might last a good chunk of tomorrow too in those spots. I'm not really seeing a great mechanism to get out it of there.

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Sometimes Tippys posts get me riled up a bit. "But, ..you know, sometimes I see this less as a "weather forum", and just a collecting pool of snow enthusiasts; just happens to be that there are some Meteorologists showing up that convention from time to time. " really dude, really. I am sure Jerry, Metherb, Cold Front and every other knowledgable hobbyist appreciate this. I have seen more cognizant science based posts from them then some degreed mets in all seasons. Just sayin...

Totally different topic, but you aren't alone on some of that. He'll say everyone is far too emotionally involved then a day later he'll post a bunch of paragraphs about how mother nature is a cruel b*tch and cosmic dildos everywhere to prevent exciting weather in the Merrimack Valley.

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Yeah its a very classic cold drain for those northern areas when you have the Quebec high north of Maine. The cold air drains better into the CT valley and Hudson valley when we have those banana Ontario highs.

Dewpoint drain from Maine out of the NE is classic for N MA/NE MA/S NH to just pool that cold air as it banks up against the ORH hills and the secondary drain down the CT River Valley branks up against the N berkshires. It could take a really long time to get that out of the N ORH hills/N Berks speaking for SNE sensible wx. I mean, it might last a good chunk of tomorrow too in those spots. I'm not really seeing a great mechanism to get out it of there.

Could be a little nasty later on as the "real" precip gets in gear

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Totally different topic, but you aren't alone on some of that. He'll say everyone is far too emotionally involved then a day later he'll post a bunch of paragraphs about how mother nature is a cruel b*tch and cosmic dildos everywhere to prevent exciting weather in the Merrimack Valley.

Yeah I like Tip but he came across as a condescending twit in that post.

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Yeah its a very classic cold drain for those northern areas when you have the Quebec high north of Maine. The cold air drains better into the CT valley and Hudson valley when we have those banana Ontario highs.

Dewpoint drain from Maine out of the NE is classic for N MA/NE MA/S NH to just pool that cold air as it banks up against the ORH hills and the secondary drain down the CT River Valley branks up against the N berkshires. It could take a really long time to get that out of the N ORH hills/N Berks speaking for SNE sensible wx. I mean, it might last a good chunk of tomorrow too in those spots. I'm not really seeing a great mechanism to get out it of there.

Yeah northern MA in those areas is just as cold as it is up here right now.

Look at that wedge... very cool meteorology (not modelology) in progress right now, haha. Other side of the Spine is already warming up quickly up this way. Champlain Valley just cannot hold cold.

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Totally different topic, but you aren't alone on some of that. He'll say everyone is far too emotionally involved then a day later he'll post a bunch of paragraphs about how mother nature is a cruel b*tch and cosmic dildos everywhere to prevent exciting weather in the Merrimack Valley.

You are definetly on the list of in the know hobbyists. I will say this, he is right about one thing, 95% of us love winter. Right now not so much here lol, 34 and drizzle.
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I really didn't expect it would snow this steadily and at a good clip. Looks like an inch or so down in town here and getting whiter by the minute as this band moves through.

Hard to believe the winter has been so rough so far I'm thinking this is a big storm. Some December's every passing cloud farts 1-3" of orographic stuff... of you wake up to your car covered like 15 out of 30 days. Not this season so far.

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Yeah the cold goes right into the Gulf of Maine. It's going to be extremely stubborn in nrn MA and the ORH hills. But this isn't a surprise as meso models and basic understanding hinted at this.

Yeah well we saw some posts even last night that were skeptical. But regardless, I think most mets and knowledgable hobbyists were ont he same page WRT icing potential and CAD. We knew the models would under estimate it. I remember Ekster saying the 4km WRF up there had ORH holding below freezing even all day Monday and said that was likely to be much closer to reality than the models trying to get it to 40F.

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I really didn't expect it would snow this steadily and at a good clip. Looks like an inch or so down in town here and getting whiter by the minute as this band moves through.

Hard to believe the winter has been so rough so far I'm thinking this is a big storm. Some December's every passing cloud farts 1-3" of orographic stuff... of you wake up to your car covered like 15 out of 30 days. Not this season so far.

Yeah some Decembers are just like that...those same ones have every shortwave turning into a 6-10" overrunning event for SNE and before you can blink, its New Years eve and even Boston logan airport has 25" of snow.

Hopefully this cutter at the end of the week is the turning point...there seems to be a good bit of potential after that...even from the same ULL...you'll prob get a lot of uplope with that and we could even see inverted trough snows down here if it pans out.

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Yeah well we saw some posts even last night that were skeptical. But regardless, I think most mets and knowledgable hobbyists were ont he same page WRT icing potential and CAD. We knew the models would under estimate it. I remember Ekster saying the 4km WRF up there had ORH holding below freezing even all day Monday and said that was likely to be much closer to reality than the models trying to get it to 40F.

Yeah our WRF (although not doing the best now) also had the same feature. Probably some sort of ageo tug as pressure falls occur east when the low departs.

Or should I say, Isallobaric tug.

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