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December 16-17 wintry obs/discussion


ORH_wxman

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No precip though, cold but where is the precip in SNE?

There isn't supposed to be much until tonight...and by "much", maybe a couple tenths. This afternoon has been just weenie precip for several runs now (outside of NAM), a few hundreths maybe.

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Thanks, wasted cold for most of us. Hope it's snowing tonight at the Pats game at least.

Yeah back when we had more qpf on the models a couple days ago, it looked like we could at leats muster 2 or 3 inches of snow on the front end, but now maybe a coating and then some glaze tonight where the CAD holds strong. We could actually get a couple tenths of accretion later. Esp N ORH hills/GC, and up near NH border like Tyngsborough/Westford/Townsend area where the CAD is going to hold on the longest probably through tomorrow morning.

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Yeah back when we had more qpf on the models a couple days ago, it looked like we could at leats muster 2 or 3 inches of snow on the front end, but now maybe a coating and then some glaze tonight where the CAD holds strong. We could actually get a couple tenths of accretion later. Esp N ORH hills/GC, and up near NH border like Tyngsborough/Westford/Townsend area where the CAD is going to hold on the longest probably through tomorrow morning.

How warm this week?
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The chance for inverted trough snows for much of the period between 12/23-12/25 is there...been there for a few runs with all those spokes of energy rounding the ULL from the 12/21 event. I would not be surprised if that is how we can muster a white Christmas and holiday period.

Somewhat unusual to have a "50/50" that far S. It is also an interesting Red Block with overriding -NAO west based blocking ridge situated ideally to pin the negative anomaly right over head. That inverted structured could NORLUN - ...look out if that happens. That's a helluva bit of instability with cold heights over top a llv convergence axis of saturable air mass. I can visualize that snowing pretty damn hard in a band or two with ease should that come to pass.

Btw way, ...I was unfortunate enough to have my eyes come across posts that want to consign the entire month of December now to a non-event; and by that I assume folks are speaking in deference to snow.

Not smart.

The operational models (and their ensemble members have not been much better) have demonstrated increased stochastic behavior over the last 10 days, more so than normal run to run variability. Across that journey, we have been through blizzards, rain storms, ice storms, and nothing storms, erratically, often times inside a single day's 4 cycle-time of runs among the various model camps.

I don't believe based upon that, and knowing that the environmental conditions in which these models have performed are essentially static going forward, one can logically infer that December is a lost cause for winter weather enthusiasts/obsessors. A solution more kind to what people want (and I am not even sure what that is outside of whether there are snow flakes falling out the window or not - doesn't seem at times people really care about the "weather", just whether it is snowing or not...) could still materialize. It's childish really.

Opinion: Here is the way I see it in the on-going endeavor to manage one's emotions in this. First of all, people's overt snow bias in weather phenomenon-appreciation is setting yourself up for disappointment. The weather is a stage that has many many different players, where snow is just one player. For shear probability on a very basic, and REAL, scale, your expectation needs to be aware that with such a narrow bandwidth of preferential weather, with all the possible outcomes weather can bring to the show, you are thus up against a stacked deck. It's just the statistics of the thing.

But, ..you know, sometimes I see this less as a "weather forum", and just a collecting pool of snow enthusiasts; just happens to be that there are some Meteorologists showing up that convention from time to time.

Even at times when snow seems favored, then you drill those different scenarios down within that era and find reasons to shine an imperfect light on things. It's an insanity - I'm convinced of it. Or going the other way, take this 12z Euro - a solution like that could snow a lot, and not be well forecast at this sort of time lead because it is rather unorthodox compared to seeing the old standardized model of a western ridge, eastern carved out menace; that narrow point of view on what people want to see even hurts them when it IS snowing in that case.

But it is what it is.... There's nothing wrong with having a snow preference, but I do think there something at least worth evaluation when that preference seems to preclude objectivity. Lastly, check this, ... but I suspect the last 10 years worth of Decembers are on whole well above normal for snow fall. Suffering perhaps even 4 in a row, should that happen, might just bring us back to normal ;) .

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You can see a decent drain starting to form along the coast of Maine and NH and into interior SNE...those dews in the teens...if we can pick that up to like 10-15 knots as the secondary gets going to the south, then perhaps this could mean some sustained icing for a chunk of the area west of the CF right now...even on the CP and if far enough north too.

2012121619metarsalb.gif

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