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December 16-17 wintry obs/discussion


ORH_wxman

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The airmass/min-vortex didn't press that far south was the biggest issue. It was moving more ESE when it got near N Maine rather than SE or SSE which would have really pressed colder/drier air southward. Similar to 12/16/07...that one actually had less impressive temps in northern Maine...but due to trajectory, we had a lakes cutter essentially turn into a big SWFE with high snow totals. Worse trajectory in this one makes for not as much CAD resistance. There will still be plenty of CAD, but just not as good as it could have been.

Yeah you could see the core of lowest thicknesses headed just a hair too far East toward Nova Scotia. Causes two problems - you don't get the true cold stuff to drain in and it also doesn't create the same degree of resistance. It erodes a bit easier and you won't have quite as much lift.

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The 4km NAM has pretty consistently held your area

Yeah the really high res meso models have done it...but even the 12km NAM couldnt get it right. It had that 34F. It did try to cool it back to 32F tonight for a time.

But we generally know the drill in these setups. Usually hack off about 5-8F on the sfc temps. Sometimes you even have to hack off more than that.

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OT but euro suggests (admittedly in la la range some snow mid day 12/24 in eastern areas along the coast.

The chance for inverted trough snows for much of the period between 12/23-12/25 is there...been there for a few runs with all those spokes of energy rounding the ULL from the 12/21 event. I would not be surprised if that is how we can muster a white Christmas and holiday period.

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Yeah the really high res meso models have done it...but even the 12km NAM couldnt get it right. It had that 34F. It did try to cool it back to 32F tonight for a time.

But we generally know the drill in these setups. Usually hack off about 5-8F on the sfc temps. Sometimes you even have to hack off more than that.

Our RPM had temps in the 20s for you yesterday. It also had a period of temps possible cooling a bit in nrn mass tomorrow as the low departs.

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Will does the CF continue to move north or does CAD start to push it south?? I have dropped here from 34 to 33 light snow/sleet falling

I don't think its going to move much over the next few hours...if anything a bit more westward. Where you are, it could see some mild drain. You are still prob not saturated all the way either. So evap cooling may drop your temps a bit more. Here, its 26F, but dewpoint is still 20F.

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