Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I see he likes the NAM too. And with a DGEX mention lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Just come up to Chicago and we can all pound beers. I may give this serious consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The Euro looks similar to the GEM I believe it's colder and snowier for these parts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 12z Euro drops 1.06" liquid at DPA but sfc temps are iffy early on. 850's not a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 models definitely have the look of a 4-8" cement mixer event for the western LOT area back into DVN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The delayed spinup/southeast shifting may be positive for the majority of forum members, but not those of us in the far west. At least with the Euro we've gone from blizzard to solid storm to a couple inches over the last couple days of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I believe it's colder and snowier for these parts though. It is snow up that way. Here ( se of Grand Rapids ) it is a rain ( perhaps rn/sn? ) to snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The delayed spinup/southeast shifting may be positive for the majority of forum members, but not those of us in the far west. At least with the Euro we've gone from blizzard to solid storm to a couple inches over the last couple days of runs. you're the dude that hasn't had a 10-12" storm since forever, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The delayed spinup/southeast shifting may be positive for the majority of forum members, but not those of us in the far west. At least with the Euro we've gone from blizzard to solid storm to a couple inches over the last couple days of runs. Yeah there's still some shifting around to be done for sure. The models had fits with even that little wave tomorrow in the OH valley. I'm just happy there's a decent storm threat in the region at this point. Certainly has the potential to be a widespread/high impact event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 The farthest west 12z GEFS member looks like it tracks about over MKE. The rest are east and some by a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Euro with 6"+ for entire Chicagoland area. 12" as you get into MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Euro with 6"+ for entire Chicagoland area. 12" as you get into MI. lame lame lame. so it starts a rain in IL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The farthest west 12z GEFS member looks like it tracks about over MKE. The rest are east and some by a lot. not gonna lie...i expected quite a few more amped solutions. Euro with 6"+ for entire Chicagoland area. 12" as you get into MI. good run for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 lame lame lame. so it starts a rain in IL? How is 6+ inches lame? Especially with this winter and last year's.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 How is 6+ inches lame? Especially with this winter and last year's.. Lol you're right. I live in Peoria though, so not sure if we'd get that much from the 12z ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I like! It is snow up that way. Here ( se of Grand Rapids ) it is a rain ( perhaps rn/sn? ) to snow event. Euro with 6"+ for entire Chicagoland area. 12" as you get into MI. I like! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 High Res models are what I would look at. They usually sniff out the WAA pretty good. So you got awhile to go. Most models don't really take the trough negative and deepen the low until relatively late in the game...it certainly negates some of the most aggressive WAA dry slot potential. That said, we're still seeing signs of a solid warm tongue into the core as the system deepens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Lol you're right. I live in Peoria though, so not sure if we'd get that much from the 12z ECM PIA gets 6" as does MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 not gonna lie...i expected quite a few more amped solutions. Hopefully Harry or someone else who gets the individual Euro members can give us the range on the 12z run. 51 members is always better than 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The Euro still showing 45-50kt 10m wind gusts in the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Don't know if it's been mentioned yet but the 12z Ukie looks like it tracks through central IL. After that I can't tell since there's a 24hr gap on the ewall site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 OT but Euro drops another 6" here on Xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 PIA gets 6" as does MKE. Nice Really tight isobars too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 OT but Euro drops another 6" here on Xmas Weren't you the guy that was complaining about looking at storms 5+days out? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Weren't you the guy that was complaining about looking at storms 5+days out? lol just nice to see a system now for several runs. Back OT, wonder when the NAM will get a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Skilling posted this on his FB, and this looks MUCH better, but I would like it to be moved just a bit more southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Hopefully Harry or someone else who gets the individual Euro members can give us the range on the 12z run. 51 members is always better than 10. 12z euro ensemble mean tracks it to Toledo and then Toronto..Then a new low pops near NYC to near Boston/Cape and then just off the Maine coast.. Thus a little bit se of the op run.. Furthest nw one is over Chicago while furthest east is near Cleveland. Alot more of them pops a new low near i95 between Philly and NYC. None are showing sub 980 till it is in New England. Thus a bit weaker overall. The .75 line cuts through Chicago on up the lake to near Traverse City with more ( .75 to 1.00 ) east across all of lower MI and less ( .50 to .75 ) west to E.IA up to Green Bay.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 One of the U of I WRF simulations at 84hrs. Looks like it's about to really rev up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 One of the U of I WRF simulations at 84hrs. Looks like it's about to really rev up... Can you link me to that? I can't find where I put it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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