michsnowfreak Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Though still bringing us rain, the euro is by far the best model here for backside (and les) snows....so I guess its good if the euro shows the best outcome for your area, over say, the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I'm sticking with EC Iowa through Madison and Sheboygan/Green Bay as the most likely zone for heavy snow from the backside deformation zone. Likely up through Traverse City as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The NAM is lol worthy right now IMO SREF mean is warm and west...all signs point to rain storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The NAM is lol worthy right now IMO Looks like it would cut over DSM, lol. Alek is gonna dry hump it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 SREF mean is warm and west...all signs point to rain storm I think the SREF tends to have a slight north bias to begin with, I always see its severe and snow parameters a bit to the north of guidance. It still may be useful, but important to note it is also in its long range right now when this storm comes into view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Have the southern lakes ever been in the game to begin with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 SREF is worthless at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Have the southern lakes ever been in the game to begin with? The Western Lakes have (Quad Cities, Madison, Milwaukee, maybe Chicago), but the Lakes area east of Lake Michigan probably haven't to this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Looks like it would cut over DSM, lol. Alek is gonna dry hump it. lol. I don't think it's going to cut that far west...probably right over Chicago give or take a few miles....either way that's a rain track without an entrenched arctic airmass out ahead...which we won't have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Well, seems the consensus track is close to Chicago or NW IN, so there shouldn't be much surprise here. Right? This is a IA, WI, northern MI storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 We need two more consistent Euro runs, if we get them in the NW Indiana, S Lower Michigan area, at that point I might start feeling more confident on the track, especially if the Euro Ensemble stays consistent with that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 This definitely looks like a heavy wet snow for areas that are likely to see the main defo band (Quad Cities, Dubuque, Madison, Green Bay) with temps likely between 29F and 33F. Don't know if accumulation will be as good as the GFS is suggesting. I hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The track need to shift to the SE otherwise areas from MKE south along the lake are going to get screwed. As of now I think I see more rain than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The track need to shift to the SE otherwise areas from MKE south along the lake are going to get screwed. As of now I think I see more rain than snow. Near the lake, I would sadly agree. The Euro's surface temps even with a track to NW Indiana/SW Lower Michigan were marginal for the Milwaukee area (both Timmerman and Mitchell), though 850s were well below freezing so that might make up for it in that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Looks like it would cut over DSM, lol. Alek is gonna dry hump it. yep sounds like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XcNick Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Near the lake, I would sadly agree. The Euro's surface temps even with a track to NW Indiana/SW Lower Michigan were marginal for the Milwaukee area (both Timmerman and Mitchell), though 850s were well below freezing so that might make up for it in that scenario. What would you say for my area? I know last storm the lake never turned the snow to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 What would you say for my area? I know last storm the lake never turned the snow to rain. I would move to your city in a hurry myself. I've always wanted to live in Washington County from a weather perspective, and in a situation like this, it may well be that you're just in the heavier snow band, assuming no big shifts or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I feel very borderline for this storm. Small shifts could really throw my area from a mostly rain/back end snow to a mostly snow event. Now the fun part, the storm is coming... Model watch to determine even the smallest shifts in track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 12z GEM slower and stronger, but not shifting nw at all. In fact, the surface low tracks from southeast MO to northern IN(990mb). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 I feel very borderline for this storm. Small shifts could really throw my area from a mostly rain/back end snow to a mostly snow event. Now the fun part, the storm is coming... Model watch to determine even the smallest shifts in track Big storm or not, it looks like the measureless streak's days are numbered for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 What would you say for my area? I know last storm the lake never turned the snow to rain. Probably a good rule of thumb for this storm, if you saw snow from the last one near the lake, you'll be good for this one as well! I think there will be plenty of snow still occurring with north winds to give folks down the western shore of Lake Michigan snow accumulation. - Given a current EURO/GFS blend right now. I think the corridor of lake mixing will be narrower this time around. We've knocked a couple degrees off since the last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Probably a good rule of thumb for this storm, if you saw snow from the last one near the lake, you'll be good for this one as well! I think there will be plenty of snow still occurring with north winds to give folks down the western shore of Lake Michigan snow accumulation. - Given a current EURO/GFS blend right now. I think the corridor of lake mixing will be narrower this time around. We've knocked a couple degrees off since the last event. I agree it will be narrower, but it will hamper accums near the lake regardless unless a solution like the GEM pans out. That might throw a wrench into things, as it looks much more impressive for MKE and Chicago it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 12z GEM would be perfect for SE Wisconsin. NE fetch off the lake though the entire event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 This is probably the most I've been excited for a storm this year. Even if s lakes miss out on front end, still cold, some snow, and wind for everyone heading towards Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 12z GGEM kicks east after 108 hours with a lot of bagginess in the isobars toward the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hammer Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Trying to follow this thread, as I have to drive to Marysville this upcoming week (weekend)... what are the chances the I75 corridor (up from Georgia) and then I94 from Detroit to Marysville gets hit - I don't have a lot of experience in the snow, so need to plan as best I can... Thanks in advance. Hammer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 I'd love to see what the GGEM tries to do between 120-132 hours, because there's a 979 mb low over Lake Ontario at 132 hours. I'm guessing a coastal low tries to get going but doesn't quite make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I sure hope we can get SOME snow here in Western Michigan. I'm sitting at 2 inches of snow on the season, while the average by now is over 2 FEET! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 To bad its the GGEM.. would love to see the euro come out pole vault running like it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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