Hoosier Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 995 mb in south central Missouri at 102 hours. *Looks* like we're heading for a similar solution, perhaps a bit south of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 large 996mb low over eastern IL at 108hr. Less cold sector QPF so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 And there she goes...988mb into southwest MI/nw IN border. But still not as much snow as previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Right over Central MI at 120hr... looks to be sub 980 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 Euro really deepens it between 108-120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 And there she goes...988mb into southwest MI/nw IN border. But still not as much snow as previous runs. so overall consensus with this run is a bit further south, still a good hvy snowfall axis a tad se of the 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Euro really deepens it between 108-120 hours. blizzard threat still looks like its there with that pressure gradient once it really gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Unsure about areas right along/near the Lake but other then that it is a decent hit for E/SE WI, N.IL, E.IA, and N.MI. Not too shabby in W.MI either with the wraparound snows.. Basically a heavy rain to heavy snow out this way back towards Chicago.. System closes off in sw MI.. Thus what helps keep the snows going on the backside.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 blizzard threat still looks like its there with that pressure gradient once it really gets going. what did the qpf look like in the cold sector? saw you mentioned it was less? still putting down 6-10" in that heavy snow axis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 so overall consensus with this run is a bit further south, still a good hvy snowfall axis a tad se of the 12z? it takes a bit longer to really deepen and yeah less snow but probably a bit futher southeast of the 12z axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Where does it head after being in c mi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 Can really see the warm air getting wrapped in near the low on this image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 it takes a bit longer to really deepen and yeah less snow but probably a bit futher southeast of the 12z axis. Maybe a tad SE but both runs look like they head through Gary and between South Bend and Benton Harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Where does it head after being in c mi Thumb and across Huron up into Canada.. Coastal appears to try and get going but fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Can really see the warm air getting wrapped in near the low on this image Really nice mid-level baroclinicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Can really see the warm air getting wrapped in near the low on this image That would mean strengthening/bombogenisys correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Maybe a tad SE but both runs look like they head through Gary and between South Bend and Benton Harbor. Regional view i have shows it on top of Benton Harbor.. Basically from there to Bay City.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Regional view i have shows it on top of Benton Harbor.. Basically from there to Bay City.. I'm still liking Sault Sainte Marie as the jackpot. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 That would mean strengthening/bombogenisys correct? Could be snowing in Detroit and raining in alpena there. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I'm still liking Sault Sainte Marie as the jackpot. Jon On THIS run atleast Traverse City looks to be the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Decent agreement with the 00z euro ensembles and euro.. The mean is a shade se of the OP tracking into MI near Niles and then heads for near Flint/Thumb on across Huron into Canada. Strong support for the closing off and back end/wrap around snows.. Main difference is there is alot more clustering over/near the thumb and a few more ( vs 12z ) that get it below 980mb in that area. The furthest nw any of them go is near Milwaukee ( vs green Bay on 12z ) as a sub 980mb storm.. Majority track between Chicago and Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 One can hope:D On THIS run atleast Traverse City looks to be the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Although per model consensus I look to be in the warm sector, if that Euro map posted above is close to being right, I am right in line for some good LES/enhancement on the backside. Just the right flow and trajectory to give me a couple of inches. It looks to be the only game in town for the SE half of the subforum. I'll take that as a consolation prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 6z gfs back west a little. Probably gonna be slightly to far west here. Hope those to the east get the big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The Euro Ensemble members' consistency is interesting, you normally wouldn't expect such tight clustering 4-5 days out (now more like 4) from an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XcNick Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The Euro Ensemble members' consistency is interesting, you normally wouldn't expect such tight clustering 4-5 days out (now more like 4) from an event. And I hope is stays consistent. Anyways When is the storm suppose to get sampled?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 And I hope is stays consistent. Anyways When is the storm suppose to get sampled?... Probably in the next day and a half to two days. I really like those NW of a line from maybe Dixon, IL to Janesville to Waukesha to Port Washington/Sheboygan. I will probably be right on the edge, although the Euro Ensemble mean could change that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Could be snowing in Detroit and raining in alpena there. Jon Massive dry slot over much of the state at that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Eastern IA up through just south of GRB and beyond special on the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The NAM is lol worthy right now IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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