Jonger Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 This one is looking like a Milwaukee to Sault Saint Marie whopper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 More of a panhandle hook. Really one of the underrated storms of the past 25 years. Anyone who was in the middle of it would tell you it was one of the most intense events they've witnessed. 12/15/87 was badass. Very similar to the GHD storm in that the winds were insane simultaneously with the heavy snow. Also lots of thundersnow. GHD was definitely the better storm, but 12/15/87 is one I'll definitely never forget. Good to see the GFS continue to show storm potential. GEM and Euro should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I think if the southern wave were to dig a bit more and the sfc low were to hook across TX/OK instead of moving east we would see better cold sector QPF earlier. Well, that's just it...we need the energy to dig more. I guess I'm a bit skeptical considering the flow still remains rather progressive/fast. Wavelengths are so short right now. Look at the energy already approaching the PAC NW on the GFS (behind this potential system). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Hmmm, the 12z GGEM looked interesting on a couple counts here. One, it still shows hope for the Tuesday system. Two, it initially tracks a relatively weak primary low from St. Louis to SW Lake Michigan (only WAA cold sector precip for Northern Michigan) then developed an intense secondary low north of Cincinnati to Detroit and blows up some decent cold sector deformation precip over the much of Indiana/Michigan. Just 'musing around though, I'm still about where I was before in terms of my expectations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 ukie on board...988mb over Traverse City EDIT: gem a smidgen west as that a p much just as deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 12/15/87 was badass. Very similar to the GHD storm in that the winds were insane simultaneously with the heavy snow. Also lots of thundersnow. GHD was definitely the better storm, but 12/15/87 is one I'll definitely never forget. Good to see the GFS continue to show storm potential. GEM and Euro should be fun. UKMET is just about as far north as any model has been with this storm.. 988mb over the northern LP of Michigan. GGEM is stuck at 96hr for me... but the differences in the 500mb setup and corresponding surface between the GEM and UKMET is almost laughable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 MKX posted this a little while ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Wish this wave would dig farther south. Then I might be able to put the 12/15/87 analog on the table. Probably would make for a good storm reanalysis some day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 I remember that one! Ya, I'm OLD! LOL. It probably was the heaviest I ever saw snow come down! Also, probably the windiest! The snow was was flying in sideways! Couldn't see the house across the street. I remember talking to a co-worker who actually tried driving in to work that day and he said he had to follow the street lights because he could hardly see the road. Also had thundersnow. I remember the forecast the night before still called for a rain/snow mix in Milwaukee county and along the lake. Back then they didn't have the forecast models as they do today. I believe the track was kinda between the GHD blizzard and a panhandle hook. I remember it coming up NNE from around Memphis. Hoosier, I agree, this storm is underrated. You don't hear it talked about much. Sorry to get waay off-topic, but I had to chime-in on that one 87 was beastly. You'll find storms with more snow but not many with more intense conditions at the peak. Gravity waves played a big role in that event. The storm deepened to sub 980 mb as it passed over Chicago and the pressure at ORD fell like 12 mb in 15 minutes. Many places saw 60-70 mph gusts with some areas in central IL seeing gusts up to 90 mph. Edit: here's an ob from Janesville from that morning...sustained winds of 53 mph gusting to 73 mph METAR KJVL 151200Z 05046G63KT 1/8SM +SN -BLSN OVC003 M/M A//// RMK PRESFR SLPNO T//////// Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 ukie on board...988mb over Traverse City EDIT: gem a smidgen west as that a p much just as deep. UKMET looks like it goes over Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 MKX posted this a little while ago. Wow, DGEX getting "press" from MKX. Heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Some of us have no chance for snow on storms like this. Detroit is unlikely to see snow. The farther west the low goes, the less of the sub-forum gets snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 5 - 7 days = major heartbreak potential. Ugh...gotta get this beast within 72-84 hours before a win or loss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Detroit is unlikely to see snow. The farther west the low goes, the less of the sub-forum gets snow. Depends. Further west track could really help the LES cause on this side of the state. Assuming the system stays moving towards the n or nne/ne especially if it closes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Depends. Further west track could really help the LES cause on this side of the state. Assuming the system stays moving towards the n or nne/ne especially if it closes off. Any word on what the Euro ensemble members were doing with this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 5 - 7 days = major heartbreak potential. Ugh...gotta get this beast within 72-84 hours before a win or loss Tim ( ChicagoWx ) mentioned one issue ( for Beast potential that is ) i noticed as well and thus the spacing between systems/progressive flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Tim ( ChicagoWx ) mentioned one issue ( for Beast potential that is ) i noticed as well and thus the spacing between systems/progressive flow. Yeah, we need things to slow down a bit. Even some temporary ridging out west would work...alas, not sure we're there right now. Maybe/hopefully in the future. Still, this system can produce something decent...but I think it'll be over a relatively small part of the region. Just my uneducated opinion of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 00z GGEM takes it to Saginaw Bay at 120 hours, then it redevelops in eastern PA at 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 00z GGEM takes it to Saginaw Bay at 120 hours, then it redevelops in eastern PA at 132. Canadian likes it redevelopers. I much preferred the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Any word on what the Euro ensemble members were doing with this one? 12z... The mean was slightly further to the se.. The spread was between OH/WV live to as far nw as Green Bay.. Interestingly though ( a result of the block? ) most of them get shunted ene towards N.New Engalnd/Maine coast.. Only a couple head more up into Canada.. A few bomb it ( sub 980 ) in E.WI/By the lake and as well over by Detroit.. Majority are between 980mb and 995mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 What would we do without the euro ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 What would we do without the euro ens With 51 members it usually offers a lil something for everyone this far out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 12z... The mean was slightly further to the se.. The spread was between OH/WV live to as far nw as Green Bay.. Interestingly though ( a result of the block? ) most of them get shunted ene towards N.New Engalnd/Maine coast.. Only a couple head more up into Canada.. A few bomb it ( sub 980 ) in E.WI/By the lake and as well over by Detroit.. Majority are between 980mb and 995mb. I would think that is because of the blocking. And nice to hear as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Depends. Further west track could really help the LES cause on this side of the state. Assuming the system stays moving towards the n or nne/ne especially if it closes off. Unless we get a really good I-94/I/96 convergence band, any LES won't do much for us on this side of the state. GGEM's solutions seems plausible though if the main piece of energy can dig southward far enough/long enough, which looks to be the only hope for more significant snows for us further east/not downwind of the lakes. Otherwise, that LLJ means business without any real CAD ahead of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I would think that is because of the blocking. And nice to hear as well. Yes, and these runs still brought the precip and good wind potential, possibly near blizzard in parts of Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan, maybe Illinois as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Unless we get a really god I-94/I/96 convergence band, any LES won't do much for us on this side of the state. GGEM's solutions seems plausible though if the main piece of energy can dig southward far enough/long enough, which looks to be the only hope for more significant snows for us further east/not downwind of the lakes. Otherwise, that LLJ means business without any real CAD ahead of the system. 00z GGEM we all get screwed as the flow behind the system is n/nnw because it heads more east vs north.. It is only briefly w/wnw. That new low that pops to the east causes the flow to back to the north/nnw.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 0z Euro a smidge weaker and a bit further south of the 12z run through 84hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 00z GGEM we all get screwed as the flow behind the system is n/nnw because it heads more east vs north.. It is only briefly w/wnw. That new low that pops to the east causes the flow to back to the north/nnw.. For you guys downwind of Lake Michigan, you definitely don't want a secondary low in order to capitalize on the LES potential, but instead a relatively strong low parking itself over NW Michigan or NE Wisconsin. Either way, short of the secondary solution the GGEM shows (or that shortwave in the SW digging even harder), the prospects for significant snows aren't all that hot over here around Detroit. Plus it's not often you get the good convergence bands that dump 1-4" this way, even with these type of systems. Have I totally given up on this storm? No, and for many of our sub-forum it could be the first major snow event in a while. But the odds locally aren't in our favor. Yeah, we may get enough snow to whiten up the ground and some decent wind, but I'm doubting much else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Yep everything a bit south. 996mb just north of AMA at 90hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 996mb in south central MO at 102hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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