Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I would ride the Euro over the GFS, The Euro also compromises with the GGEM and Ukie. Even early NAM trends are similar to Euro. I'm riding the Euro ensemble mean/Euro op/GFS in that order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 The points about how far south (or north) the wave ejects are spot on imo. If you're farther south/east, you want a farther south ejection. If it doesn't happen and the trough goes negative tilt where the models suggest, then areas farther east are probably hosed regardless of blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The points about how far south (or north) the wave ejects are spot on imo. If you're farther south/east, you want a farther south ejection. If it doesn't happen and the trough goes negative tilt where the models suggest, then areas farther east are probably hosed regardless of blocking. Yep. Sfc low needs to get going around AMA for a good one here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The points about how far south (or north) the wave ejects are spot on imo. If you're farther south/east, you want a farther south ejection. If it doesn't happen and the trough goes negative tilt where the models suggest, then areas farther east are probably hosed regardless of blocking. Yep, definitely what I am thinking as well. We might want a more progressive moment of the trough initially, but then amplification once the low and trough get east of the Mississippi River, at least speaking for the W Great Lakes (Milwaukee/Chicago/Quad Cities). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The NW trend of 2007/08 will always haunt us weenies. "The storm isn't going to go headstrong into that blocking" was said nearly every storm that showed clean misses of WI and even the eastern lakes that winter.. 100+ inches later. I have no clue what to expect from this storm, but I know I'd rather be NW of the bulls eye 5 days out 9 times out of 10 with a panhandle hooker type storm. Totally agree with the ejection thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 18z NAM/GFS comparison at 84hr..NAM with a much sharper looking trof over the western US where the GFS is more flat. Going to have to watch how that system up in Canada plays a role possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 It can only track so far Northwest. As stated by others there is a very strong signal that there will be significant blocking across Canada. The storm isn't going to go headstrong into that blocking. Just because a system is strong doesn't mean it has to trend NW, that is a very common misconception around here. The bigger key is watching how deep into the SW this gets and where it ejects out of NM. Good points. Honestly a euro-ish track seems decently realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Thats the 12-13 0z run, you're looking at a 2 day old run somehow. It's probably likely that he didn't clear his cache.... I've had that problem on Allan Huffman's page before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The WAA on the NAM at 84 hours looks a lot more like what we've seen on the GFS than the Euro, unfortunately. Then again, not surprising if the NAM overamps this storm in its long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 The Nam really amplify'sout front and is ready to phase and bomb at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 New NAM at 84 looks pretty similar to the 12z Euro at 96 to me. At least with the southern vort. Looks like the NAM tries to get surface cyclogenesis going a bit earlier, probably due to a slightly stronger lead wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 This is going to torch most of this board. Euro may be to far east. Always the optimist lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 This looks like it's going to be a great early Christmas gift for somebody. I'll be happy for whoever gets dumped on should it pan out, but I can't lie, I'll be super jealous of anyone who ends up with a blizzard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 This is going to torch most of this board. Euro may be to far east. The NAMs 925mb temp field at 12z Wednesday is pretty damn warm. But there is 12C 850s pushing into Central MO. 15C into SE Kansas almost to I-70. Those surface temps are way underdone at that point. Could be a windy Cloudy upper 60s. Or if enough sun pops. Windy and low to mid 70s. The record is 68f that day here. So that would be In serious jeopardy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 lol at people taking the NAM seriously at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Some of us have no chance for snow on storms like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 living in western ohio, there was little hope anyway outside some backlash. Might as well go for the best possible solution and hope for something better around Christmas. All depends on where this thing runs into the block. With how badly the models have been performing lately nothing is taken for granted and the towel isnt thrown yet. I like the Euro Ens/GGEM's idea atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 lol at people taking the NAM seriously at 84 hours. You're right, but we're bored in between model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 lol at people taking the NAM seriously at 84 hours. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 You're right, but we're bored in between model runs. I understand, but come on. Comparing it to the other models is alright I guess, but taking it verbatim at 84 hours is just silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 00z GFS is a smidge farther south than the 12z run. It still shows a storm so that's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Riding the edge but hard to complain about the 0z GFS. Much better than what we've seen in the local area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 One thing I will say, and the 0z GFS kinda shows it...but that northern piece that runs out in front will delay this thing getting it's act together. Ideally, if we want the big storm scenario, this thing needs to be ripping, or beginning to, well to the south/southwest of the region. Not really seeing that on any of the guidance. Sure it'll be a good enough storm for those on the "good side", but I'm not sure I see "big" totals until we get into WI and then the U.P. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Easy to see why we see the QPF blow up around 102 in both the warm/cold sector...much more favorable LLJ orientation and vectors out of the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 Wish this wave would dig farther south. Then I might be able to put the 12/15/87 analog on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 One thing I will say, and the 0z GFS kinda shows it...but that northern piece that runs out in front will delay this thing getting it's act together. Ideally, if we want the big storm scenario, this thing needs to be ripping, or beginning to, well to the south/southwest of the region. Not really seeing that on any of the guidance. Sure it'll be a good enough storm for those on the "good side", but I'm not sure I see "big" totals until we get into WI and then the U.P. I think if the southern wave were to dig a bit more and the sfc low were to hook across TX/OK instead of moving east we would see better cold sector QPF earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Wish this wave would dig farther south. Then I might be able to put the 12/15/87 analog on the table. Haha, from what I've heard that was a great storm for much of WI/MI. A gulf low or a panhandle hook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2012 Author Share Posted December 16, 2012 Haha, from what I've heard that was a great storm for much of WI/MI. A gulf low or a panhandle hook? More of a panhandle hook. Really one of the underrated storms of the past 25 years. Anyone who was in the middle of it would tell you it was one of the most intense events they've witnessed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 More of a panhandle hook. Really one of the underrated storms of the past 25 years. Anyone who was in the middle of it would tell you it was one of the most intense events they've witnessed. My parents said people were using skis to get around town and travel to work that day. It was a few years before I was born, so nothing but heresay on this end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panhandlehook Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 More of a panhandle hook. Really one of the underrated storms of the past 25 years. Anyone who was in the middle of it would tell you it was one of the most intense events they've witnessed. I remember that one! Ya, I'm OLD! LOL. It probably was the heaviest I ever saw snow come down! Also, probably the windiest! The snow was was flying in sideways! Couldn't see the house across the street. I remember talking to a co-worker who actually tried driving in to work that day and he said he had to follow the street lights because he could hardly see the road. Also had thundersnow. I remember the forecast the night before still called for a rain/snow mix in Milwaukee county and along the lake. Back then they didn't have the forecast models as they do today. I believe the track was kinda between the GHD blizzard and a panhandle hook. I remember it coming up NNE from around Memphis. Hoosier, I agree, this storm is underrated. You don't hear it talked about much. Sorry to get waay off-topic, but I had to chime-in on that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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