December 20-22 Winter Storm (Blizzard?) Potential

wisconsinwx · December 18, 2012

The last GFS run?

Sounds pretty good. Have to wait until Wunderground loads up so I can see.

I'm sure you and I are mostly rain. Don't get your hopes up.

cyclone77 · December 18, 2012

Now that the whole 00z suite is in I'll make my first call for the QC. Looks like the consensus is a rainy night Wed night followed by a quick changeover to heavy wet snow around daybreak Thu morning. Probably looking at a 2-4" type event at this point, but it will be associated with very strong winds. The NW DVN cwa is looking like it will be pretty close to the jackpot zone. Looks great for Hawkeye.

Hoosier · December 18, 2012

Well, you're playing with fire to blindly follow an outlier this close in. The wrestling analogy from earlier was kinda lame but it's true. Regardless, I'd wait until the 12z cycle to begin to nail this down.

BadgerFan · December 18, 2012

Wow! Sounds like the 12z GFS run. Low passing near GYY I take it.

From about Dodge SW to Madison and then points N and E the 850's stay below freezing through the entire event. Milwaukee looks to start out as rain and then transitions to snow by HR 69. I don't have access to surface temps or anything, just 850's.

Brewers · December 18, 2012

I'm sure you and I are mostly rain. Don't get your hopes up.

Not sure what the thermals look like on the Euro, but I dont see why we cant get 2-4 inches of snow.

Geos · December 18, 2012

I'm sure you and I are mostly rain. Don't get your hopes up.

Well until the low is passing south of us at least!

Hoosier is right - 12z runs tomorrow will nail this track down!

Harry · December 18, 2012

Pretty wild that the euro is back to EXACTLY where it was 2 nights ago. Track to Benton Harbor and then Bay City..

McDude · December 18, 2012

What is snow? :axe:

wisconsinwx · December 18, 2012

Not sure what the thermals look like on the Euro, but I dont see why we cant get 2-4 inches of snow.

2-4 is possible if we get the best of the deformation zone on the back end, but it would still be 6-7/10ths rain. Even more than that for Geos. Hey, likely to get accumulation at least.

Chicago WX · December 18, 2012

GFS and NAM aren't exactly alike...so what's the real specifics on the 0z Euro track? Seriously.

BowMeHunter · December 18, 2012

Wonder if Grande Cheese will be closed on Thursday

Powerball · December 18, 2012

Well, you're playing with fire to blindly follow an outlier this close in. The wrestling analogy from earlier was kinda lame but it's true. Regardless, I'd wait until the 12z cycle to begin to nail this down.

It would be best to wait until the 00z runs before nailing anything down, when the entire system is fully sampled.

That said, I think it's safe to say at this point anyone SE of a Kansas City-QC-Chicago-Bad Axe line can forget any significant synoptic snows.

Chicago Storm · December 18, 2012

0z ECMWF Text List

LSE:

THU 06Z 20-DEC -0.9 -5.2 1012 91 99 0.14 544 534
THU 12Z 20-DEC -1.2 -6.1 1007 91 99 0.31 537 531
THU 18Z 20-DEC -3.4 -7.4 1007 75 91 0.14 531 526
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -5.9 -9.3 1012 73 37 0.01 532 522

MSN:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 1.0 -2.3 1008 99 99 0.18 548 541
THU 12Z 20-DEC 0.4 -3.2 1000 97 100 0.52 541 540
THU 18Z 20-DEC -0.3 -6.4 997 91 99 0.39 531 533
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -2.9 -8.0 1005 77 100 0.16 530 526
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -6.5 -7.2 1012 77 36 0.01 533 523

SBM:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 1.5 -2.8 1012 94 100 0.06 549 540
THU 12Z 20-DEC 1.1 -3.0 1002 98 100 0.44 543 542
THU 18Z 20-DEC 1.0 -3.2 993 97 99 0.49 533 539
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 0.0 -8.0 997 84 96 0.26 528 530
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -0.7 -8.4 1004 77 77 0.08 529 526

MKE:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 3.8 -1.4 1009 90 100 0.10 551 544
THU 12Z 20-DEC 4.1 1.2 998 96 97 0.31 544 546
THU 18Z 20-DEC 2.1 0.1 990 97 72 0.44 532 540
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 0.5 -7.6 998 84 98 0.22 527 529
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -3.0 -8.0 1006 74 74 0.06 530 525

RAC:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 4.2 -0.6 1009 90 100 0.10 551 544
THU 12Z 20-DEC 4.8 3.0 997 95 91 0.30 545 547
THU 18Z 20-DEC 3.3 1.5 989 97 63 0.39 532 541
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 0.7 -7.5 998 84 98 0.23 527 529
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -2.5 -7.9 1007 74 77 0.06 530 525

ENW:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 4.1 0.0 1008 92 100 0.12 552 545
THU 12Z 20-DEC 5.2 4.3 996 97 86 0.27 545 548
THU 18Z 20-DEC 2.8 1.4 989 97 53 0.32 531 540
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 0.1 -7.4 999 84 97 0.24 528 529
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -3.6 -7.6 1008 73 75 0.04 531 525

CID:

THU 00Z 20-DEC 1.6 -0.8 1011 88 100 0.02 551 542
THU 06Z 20-DEC 0.9 -1.6 1005 98 100 0.33 546 543
THU 12Z 20-DEC -0.5 -5.3 1003 92 100 0.34 537 534
THU 18Z 20-DEC -5.9 -6.5 1010 79 86 0.14 532 525

DVN:

THU 00Z 20-DEC 3.5 0.9 1011 87 100 0.03 553 544
THU 06Z 20-DEC 3.5 2.7 1003 97 96 0.30 549 547
THU 12Z 20-DEC 1.2 -1.1 998 98 100 0.28 539 541
THU 18Z 20-DEC -2.3 -6.1 1005 79 98 0.23 531 527
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -6.3 -7.3 1014 72 33 0.02 533 523

RFD:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 3.3 1.6 1005 96 97 0.23 551 547
THU 12Z 20-DEC 3.4 2.6 996 98 79 0.31 542 545
THU 18Z 20-DEC 0.4 -6.1 996 90 99 0.33 530 534
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -2.7 -7.8 1006 74 99 0.16 530 525

UGN:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 4.4 0.6 1008 92 100 0.13 552 546
THU 12Z 20-DEC 5.8 5.3 995 96 79 0.28 545 549
THU 18Z 20-DEC 3.5 1.9 988 96 50 0.29 531 541
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 0.2 -7.4 999 84 97 0.23 528 528
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -3.3 -7.5 1008 73 77 0.04 531 525

DPA:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 4.3 2.0 1006 95 100 0.23 553 548
THU 12Z 20-DEC 7.0 6.6 994 97 60 0.20 545 549
THU 18Z 20-DEC 1.7 -2.3 991 92 81 0.29 530 537
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -1.5 -7.8 1003 77 98 0.20 529 527
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -4.7 -6.9 1011 69 72 0.02 532 524

ORD:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 4.8 1.9 1007 93 100 0.17 553 548
THU 12Z 20-DEC 7.1 6.7 995 96 56 0.28 546 550
THU 18Z 20-DEC 3.2 0.8 989 92 55 0.25 530 539
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -0.4 -7.5 1001 80 98 0.21 528 527
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -3.4 -7.1 1009 69 78 0.03 532 524

MDW:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 5.2 2.4 1006 91 100 0.18 554 549
THU 12Z 20-DEC 7.8 7.1 995 95 56 0.28 546 551
THU 18Z 20-DEC 3.7 0.3 990 92 53 0.19 531 539
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -0.2 -7.6 1001 80 99 0.17 528 527
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -3.1 -7.2 1009 69 83 0.03 531 524

PIA:

THU 00Z 20-DEC 5.5 4.6 1010 76 87 0.01 556 548
THU 06Z 20-DEC 6.8 6.8 1001 97 76 0.36 553 552
THU 12Z 20-DEC 8.4 6.0 994 98 68 0.20 543 548
THU 18Z 20-DEC -0.6 -6.6 1003 81 95 0.12 531 529
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -4.9 -7.5 1013 63 41 0.02 534 523

DEC:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 10.0 9.1 1001 92 70 0.33 557 556
THU 12Z 20-DEC 12.4 7.9 994 97 68 0.22 548 553
THU 18Z 20-DEC 0.6 -6.8 1003 77 94 0.13 533 530
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -2.9 -7.9 1013 56 47 0.01 534 524

VPZ:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 5.3 3.9 1006 92 100 0.22 555 550
THU 12Z 20-DEC 8.1 7.9 997 96 82 0.37 549 552
THU 18Z 20-DEC 5.7 1.5 991 94 39 0.22 533 541
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -0.4 -7.6 1000 81 99 0.13 528 528
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -2.8 -8.3 1008 67 96 0.08 530 524

LAF:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 8.5 7.8 1005 84 99 0.13 558 554
THU 12Z 20-DEC 9.9 10.0 996 94 73 0.33 552 555
THU 18Z 20-DEC 4.1 -2.7 996 81 50 0.17 535 539
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -1.5 -8.4 1006 64 100 0.04 531 526
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -5.0 -7.2 1012 64 94 0.02 533 523

OKK:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 8.3 7.1 1007 77 85 0.04 558 553
THU 12Z 20-DEC 8.5 9.1 999 93 92 0.41 554 555
THU 18Z 20-DEC 7.0 2.7 994 91 38 0.18 539 544
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -1.0 -8.4 1003 70 98 0.04 530 528
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -4.6 -8.6 1009 67 99 0.04 531 524

FWA:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 5.9 5.0 1010 82 86 0.06 558 550
THU 12Z 20-DEC 7.5 7.5 1001 92 97 0.41 554 554
THU 18Z 20-DEC 11.7 6.1 991 93 68 0.25 542 550
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 0.4 -7.4 998 79 99 0.06 529 530
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -2.7 -8.8 1005 71 94 0.08 529 525
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -3.4 -10.0 1010 69 78 0.02 533 525
FRI 18Z 21-DEC -0.9 -9.4 1014 66 12 0.01 539 528

MKG:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 3.2 0.4 1012 79 99 0.02 552 543
THU 12Z 20-DEC 2.8 1.9 1001 92 90 0.31 547 547
THU 18Z 20-DEC 5.9 4.6 989 96 98 0.20 537 546
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 2.0 -3.8 988 95 87 0.31 525 535
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 0.7 -7.5 999 81 99 0.24 527 527
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 0.3 -9.4 1007 73 82 0.11 531 525
FRI 18Z 21-DEC -0.3 -9.9 1013 73 14 0.01 538 528
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -0.8 -7.0 1017 72 9 0.01 543 530

GRR:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 2.6 1.6 1012 79 98 0.01 554 544
THU 12Z 20-DEC 2.4 1.6 1002 97 96 0.27 549 548
THU 18Z 20-DEC 6.6 5.9 990 97 98 0.22 540 548
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 2.5 -1.3 985 96 62 0.19 524 536
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 0.0 -8.0 997 84 97 0.17 525 528
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -0.4 -8.6 1004 77 89 0.08 529 526
FRI 18Z 21-DEC -0.1 -9.9 1011 68 32 0.01 536 527
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -2.0 -9.1 1016 76 5 0.01 542 529

BTL:

THU 12Z 20-DEC 4.3 3.3 1002 95 98 0.33 551 550
THU 18Z 20-DEC 8.3 6.7 990 96 95 0.20 541 549
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 1.5 -3.1 987 96 84 0.15 525 536
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 0.2 -7.6 998 84 99 0.20 526 527
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -0.2 -8.7 1005 75 89 0.09 530 526
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 0.0 -9.9 1011 67 34 0.01 536 527
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -1.5 -8.8 1016 73 7 0.01 542 529

MOP:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 0.8 -0.5 1015 75 100 0.01 553 541
THU 12Z 20-DEC 0.6 -1.4 1006 93 99 0.25 550 544
THU 18Z 20-DEC 2.7 2.7 993 96 96 0.19 541 546
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 3.8 -1.0 985 94 65 0.28 525 537
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -1.0 -8.2 992 83 98 0.13 523 530
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -1.5 -9.6 1000 79 95 0.10 527 527
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 0.3 -9.3 1007 67 69 0.03 532 527
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -2.1 -10.4 1013 76 16 0.01 538 527

PTK:

THU 12Z 20-DEC 2.5 2.1 1007 92 100 0.14 554 548
THU 18Z 20-DEC 5.2 4.5 995 96 88 0.43 546 550
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 3.2 -4.9 989 87 53 0.15 528 536
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 0.2 -6.9 990 87 98 0.09 522 530
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -1.0 -9.5 998 77 98 0.11 525 527
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 1.3 -8.8 1004 57 91 0.07 530 527
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -0.8 -10.3 1011 68 42 0.01 535 526

DTW:

THU 12Z 20-DEC 3.8 3.4 1006 89 100 0.16 555 549
THU 18Z 20-DEC 6.2 5.4 995 95 82 0.51 547 551
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 3.1 -5.4 991 81 55 0.16 529 536
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 1.2 -7.2 992 81 99 0.08 524 530
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 0.3 -8.8 999 75 97 0.08 526 527
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 2.1 -8.4 1004 55 90 0.06 531 527
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -0.1 -10.0 1011 66 30 0.01 536 527

DET:

THU 12Z 20-DEC 3.8 2.4 1008 87 100 0.12 555 549
THU 18Z 20-DEC 5.4 4.1 996 94 83 0.55 547 551
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 3.7 -5.4 991 82 48 0.16 529 536
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 1.4 -6.8 991 84 100 0.07 523 530
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 0.0 -9.5 998 73 97 0.07 525 527
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 2.0 -8.7 1003 56 88 0.05 530 527
SAT 00Z 22-DEC 0.4 -10.1 1010 63 49 0.01 534 526

TDZ:

THU 12Z 20-DEC 5.6 5.2 1005 86 99 0.12 556 552
THU 18Z 20-DEC 8.5 7.8 994 90 88 0.53 547 552
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 2.8 -6.2 995 75 65 0.09 530 534
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -0.1 -7.1 997 78 98 0.05 526 528
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 0.4 -7.9 1002 78 97 0.11 528 526
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 2.0 -8.9 1007 56 87 0.03 532 526
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -0.1 -9.9 1013 62 15 0.01 538 528

YKF:

THU 18Z 20-DEC 0.8 1.8 1005 77 99 0.03 551 547
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 3.7 1.2 994 97 95 0.27 541 546
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 0.4 -6.5 992 86 59 0.16 525 532
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -0.6 -5.4 989 90 98 0.09 521 529
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 1.3 -5.7 992 81 99 0.09 521 528
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -2.8 -9.6 1000 80 86 0.04 524 524
SAT 06Z 22-DEC -3.6 -11.0 1003 78 66 0.02 529 527
SAT 12Z 22-DEC -3.4 -10.9 1007 78 20 0.01 532 526

YYZ:

THU 18Z 20-DEC 2.6 3.7 1007 73 81 0.01 552 546
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 4.1 0.7 996 93 100 0.20 544 547
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 2.7 -6.3 994 80 46 0.20 528 533
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 1.4 -6.1 990 81 94 0.02 521 529
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 2.6 -5.6 990 79 100 0.05 520 528
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -0.9 -7.2 997 77 97 0.05 523 525
SAT 06Z 22-DEC -2.6 -10.5 1001 74 89 0.03 527 526
SAT 12Z 22-DEC -2.8 -11.1 1005 74 61 0.02 529 525
SAT 18Z 22-DEC -1.3 -10.6 1008 66 19 0.01 531 524

Chicago Storm · December 18, 2012

Wonder if Grande Cheese will be closed on Thursday

lol

hm8 · December 18, 2012

GFS and NAM aren't exactly alike...so what's the real specifics on the 0z Euro track? Seriously.

NE-ish IL (broad low, tough to tell where exactly the center is, somewhere around Pontiac) to Holland to Midland into the Huron...

BadgerFan · December 18, 2012

Wonder if Grande Cheese will be closed on Thursday

Bow <3

I don't work there anymore tho.

Chicago WX · December 18, 2012

NE-ish IL (broad low, tough to tell where exactly the center is, somewhere around Pontiac) to Holland to Midland into the Huron...

Thanks.

snowlover2 · December 18, 2012

0z ECMWF Text List

LSE:

THU 06Z 20-DEC -0.9 -5.2 1012 91 99 0.14 544 534
THU 12Z 20-DEC -1.2 -6.1 1007 91 99 0.31 537 531
THU 18Z 20-DEC -3.4 -7.4 1007 75 91 0.14 531 526
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -5.9 -9.3 1012 73 37 0.01 532 522

MSN:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 1.0 -2.3 1008 99 99 0.18 548 541
THU 12Z 20-DEC 0.4 -3.2 1000 97 100 0.52 541 540
THU 18Z 20-DEC -0.3 -6.4 997 91 99 0.39 531 533
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -2.9 -8.0 1005 77 100 0.16 530 526
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -6.5 -7.2 1012 77 36 0.01 533 523

SBM:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 1.5 -2.8 1012 94 100 0.06 549 540
THU 12Z 20-DEC 1.1 -3.0 1002 98 100 0.44 543 542
THU 18Z 20-DEC 1.0 -3.2 993 97 99 0.49 533 539
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 0.0 -8.0 997 84 96 0.26 528 530
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -0.7 -8.4 1004 77 77 0.08 529 526

MKE:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 3.8 -1.4 1009 90 100 0.10 551 544
THU 12Z 20-DEC 4.1 1.2 998 96 97 0.31 544 546
THU 18Z 20-DEC 2.1 0.1 990 97 72 0.44 532 540
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 0.5 -7.6 998 84 98 0.22 527 529
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -3.0 -8.0 1006 74 74 0.06 530 525

RAC:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 4.2 -0.6 1009 90 100 0.10 551 544
THU 12Z 20-DEC 4.8 3.0 997 95 91 0.30 545 547
THU 18Z 20-DEC 3.3 1.5 989 97 63 0.39 532 541
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 0.7 -7.5 998 84 98 0.23 527 529
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -2.5 -7.9 1007 74 77 0.06 530 525

ENW:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 4.1 0.0 1008 92 100 0.12 552 545
THU 12Z 20-DEC 5.2 4.3 996 97 86 0.27 545 548
THU 18Z 20-DEC 2.8 1.4 989 97 53 0.32 531 540
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 0.1 -7.4 999 84 97 0.24 528 529
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -3.6 -7.6 1008 73 75 0.04 531 525

CID:

THU 00Z 20-DEC 1.6 -0.8 1011 88 100 0.02 551 542
THU 06Z 20-DEC 0.9 -1.6 1005 98 100 0.33 546 543
THU 12Z 20-DEC -0.5 -5.3 1003 92 100 0.34 537 534
THU 18Z 20-DEC -5.9 -6.5 1010 79 86 0.14 532 525

DVN:

THU 00Z 20-DEC 3.5 0.9 1011 87 100 0.03 553 544
THU 06Z 20-DEC 3.5 2.7 1003 97 96 0.30 549 547
THU 12Z 20-DEC 1.2 -1.1 998 98 100 0.28 539 541
THU 18Z 20-DEC -2.3 -6.1 1005 79 98 0.23 531 527
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -6.3 -7.3 1014 72 33 0.02 533 523

RFD:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 3.3 1.6 1005 96 97 0.23 551 547
THU 12Z 20-DEC 3.4 2.6 996 98 79 0.31 542 545
THU 18Z 20-DEC 0.4 -6.1 996 90 99 0.33 530 534
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -2.7 -7.8 1006 74 99 0.16 530 525

UGN:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 4.4 0.6 1008 92 100 0.13 552 546
THU 12Z 20-DEC 5.8 5.3 995 96 79 0.28 545 549
THU 18Z 20-DEC 3.5 1.9 988 96 50 0.29 531 541
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 0.2 -7.4 999 84 97 0.23 528 528
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -3.3 -7.5 1008 73 77 0.04 531 525

DPA:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 4.3 2.0 1006 95 100 0.23 553 548
THU 12Z 20-DEC 7.0 6.6 994 97 60 0.20 545 549
THU 18Z 20-DEC 1.7 -2.3 991 92 81 0.29 530 537
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -1.5 -7.8 1003 77 98 0.20 529 527
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -4.7 -6.9 1011 69 72 0.02 532 524

ORD:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 4.8 1.9 1007 93 100 0.17 553 548
THU 12Z 20-DEC 7.1 6.7 995 96 56 0.28 546 550
THU 18Z 20-DEC 3.2 0.8 989 92 55 0.25 530 539
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -0.4 -7.5 1001 80 98 0.21 528 527
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -3.4 -7.1 1009 69 78 0.03 532 524

MDW:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 5.2 2.4 1006 91 100 0.18 554 549
THU 12Z 20-DEC 7.8 7.1 995 95 56 0.28 546 551
THU 18Z 20-DEC 3.7 0.3 990 92 53 0.19 531 539
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -0.2 -7.6 1001 80 99 0.17 528 527
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -3.1 -7.2 1009 69 83 0.03 531 524

PIA:

THU 00Z 20-DEC 5.5 4.6 1010 76 87 0.01 556 548
THU 06Z 20-DEC 6.8 6.8 1001 97 76 0.36 553 552
THU 12Z 20-DEC 8.4 6.0 994 98 68 0.20 543 548
THU 18Z 20-DEC -0.6 -6.6 1003 81 95 0.12 531 529
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -4.9 -7.5 1013 63 41 0.02 534 523

DEC:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 10.0 9.1 1001 92 70 0.33 557 556
THU 12Z 20-DEC 12.4 7.9 994 97 68 0.22 548 553
THU 18Z 20-DEC 0.6 -6.8 1003 77 94 0.13 533 530
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -2.9 -7.9 1013 56 47 0.01 534 524

VPZ:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 5.3 3.9 1006 92 100 0.22 555 550
THU 12Z 20-DEC 8.1 7.9 997 96 82 0.37 549 552
THU 18Z 20-DEC 5.7 1.5 991 94 39 0.22 533 541
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -0.4 -7.6 1000 81 99 0.13 528 528
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -2.8 -8.3 1008 67 96 0.08 530 524

LAF:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 8.5 7.8 1005 84 99 0.13 558 554
THU 12Z 20-DEC 9.9 10.0 996 94 73 0.33 552 555
THU 18Z 20-DEC 4.1 -2.7 996 81 50 0.17 535 539
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -1.5 -8.4 1006 64 100 0.04 531 526
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -5.0 -7.2 1012 64 94 0.02 533 523

OKK:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 8.3 7.1 1007 77 85 0.04 558 553
THU 12Z 20-DEC 8.5 9.1 999 93 92 0.41 554 555
THU 18Z 20-DEC 7.0 2.7 994 91 38 0.18 539 544
FRI 00Z 21-DEC -1.0 -8.4 1003 70 98 0.04 530 528
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -4.6 -8.6 1009 67 99 0.04 531 524

FWA:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 5.9 5.0 1010 82 86 0.06 558 550
THU 12Z 20-DEC 7.5 7.5 1001 92 97 0.41 554 554
THU 18Z 20-DEC 11.7 6.1 991 93 68 0.25 542 550
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 0.4 -7.4 998 79 99 0.06 529 530
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -2.7 -8.8 1005 71 94 0.08 529 525
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -3.4 -10.0 1010 69 78 0.02 533 525
FRI 18Z 21-DEC -0.9 -9.4 1014 66 12 0.01 539 528

MKG:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 3.2 0.4 1012 79 99 0.02 552 543
THU 12Z 20-DEC 2.8 1.9 1001 92 90 0.31 547 547
THU 18Z 20-DEC 5.9 4.6 989 96 98 0.20 537 546
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 2.0 -3.8 988 95 87 0.31 525 535
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 0.7 -7.5 999 81 99 0.24 527 527
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 0.3 -9.4 1007 73 82 0.11 531 525
FRI 18Z 21-DEC -0.3 -9.9 1013 73 14 0.01 538 528
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -0.8 -7.0 1017 72 9 0.01 543 530

GRR:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 2.6 1.6 1012 79 98 0.01 554 544
THU 12Z 20-DEC 2.4 1.6 1002 97 96 0.27 549 548
THU 18Z 20-DEC 6.6 5.9 990 97 98 0.22 540 548
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 2.5 -1.3 985 96 62 0.19 524 536
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 0.0 -8.0 997 84 97 0.17 525 528
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -0.4 -8.6 1004 77 89 0.08 529 526
FRI 18Z 21-DEC -0.1 -9.9 1011 68 32 0.01 536 527
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -2.0 -9.1 1016 76 5 0.01 542 529

BTL:

THU 12Z 20-DEC 4.3 3.3 1002 95 98 0.33 551 550
THU 18Z 20-DEC 8.3 6.7 990 96 95 0.20 541 549
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 1.5 -3.1 987 96 84 0.15 525 536
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 0.2 -7.6 998 84 99 0.20 526 527
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -0.2 -8.7 1005 75 89 0.09 530 526
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 0.0 -9.9 1011 67 34 0.01 536 527
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -1.5 -8.8 1016 73 7 0.01 542 529

MOP:

THU 06Z 20-DEC 0.8 -0.5 1015 75 100 0.01 553 541
THU 12Z 20-DEC 0.6 -1.4 1006 93 99 0.25 550 544
THU 18Z 20-DEC 2.7 2.7 993 96 96 0.19 541 546
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 3.8 -1.0 985 94 65 0.28 525 537
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -1.0 -8.2 992 83 98 0.13 523 530
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -1.5 -9.6 1000 79 95 0.10 527 527
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 0.3 -9.3 1007 67 69 0.03 532 527
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -2.1 -10.4 1013 76 16 0.01 538 527

PTK:

THU 12Z 20-DEC 2.5 2.1 1007 92 100 0.14 554 548
THU 18Z 20-DEC 5.2 4.5 995 96 88 0.43 546 550
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 3.2 -4.9 989 87 53 0.15 528 536
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 0.2 -6.9 990 87 98 0.09 522 530
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -1.0 -9.5 998 77 98 0.11 525 527
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 1.3 -8.8 1004 57 91 0.07 530 527
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -0.8 -10.3 1011 68 42 0.01 535 526

DTW:

THU 12Z 20-DEC 3.8 3.4 1006 89 100 0.16 555 549
THU 18Z 20-DEC 6.2 5.4 995 95 82 0.51 547 551
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 3.1 -5.4 991 81 55 0.16 529 536
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 1.2 -7.2 992 81 99 0.08 524 530
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 0.3 -8.8 999 75 97 0.08 526 527
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 2.1 -8.4 1004 55 90 0.06 531 527
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -0.1 -10.0 1011 66 30 0.01 536 527

DET:

THU 12Z 20-DEC 3.8 2.4 1008 87 100 0.12 555 549
THU 18Z 20-DEC 5.4 4.1 996 94 83 0.55 547 551
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 3.7 -5.4 991 82 48 0.16 529 536
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 1.4 -6.8 991 84 100 0.07 523 530
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 0.0 -9.5 998 73 97 0.07 525 527
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 2.0 -8.7 1003 56 88 0.05 530 527
SAT 00Z 22-DEC 0.4 -10.1 1010 63 49 0.01 534 526

TDZ:

THU 12Z 20-DEC 5.6 5.2 1005 86 99 0.12 556 552
THU 18Z 20-DEC 8.5 7.8 994 90 88 0.53 547 552
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 2.8 -6.2 995 75 65 0.09 530 534
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -0.1 -7.1 997 78 98 0.05 526 528
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 0.4 -7.9 1002 78 97 0.11 528 526
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 2.0 -8.9 1007 56 87 0.03 532 526
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -0.1 -9.9 1013 62 15 0.01 538 528

YKF:

THU 18Z 20-DEC 0.8 1.8 1005 77 99 0.03 551 547
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 3.7 1.2 994 97 95 0.27 541 546
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 0.4 -6.5 992 86 59 0.16 525 532
FRI 12Z 21-DEC -0.6 -5.4 989 90 98 0.09 521 529
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 1.3 -5.7 992 81 99 0.09 521 528
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -2.8 -9.6 1000 80 86 0.04 524 524
SAT 06Z 22-DEC -3.6 -11.0 1003 78 66 0.02 529 527
SAT 12Z 22-DEC -3.4 -10.9 1007 78 20 0.01 532 526

YYZ:

THU 18Z 20-DEC 2.6 3.7 1007 73 81 0.01 552 546
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 4.1 0.7 996 93 100 0.20 544 547
FRI 06Z 21-DEC 2.7 -6.3 994 80 46 0.20 528 533
FRI 12Z 21-DEC 1.4 -6.1 990 81 94 0.02 521 529
FRI 18Z 21-DEC 2.6 -5.6 990 79 100 0.05 520 528
SAT 00Z 22-DEC -0.9 -7.2 997 77 97 0.05 523 525
SAT 06Z 22-DEC -2.6 -10.5 1001 74 89 0.03 527 526
SAT 12Z 22-DEC -2.8 -11.1 1005 74 61 0.02 529 525
SAT 18Z 22-DEC -1.3 -10.6 1008 66 19 0.01 531 524

Dayton? Just curious about wrap around/LES.

michsnowfreak · December 18, 2012

To all the SE MI folks lamenting the euro going NW, whats funny is the thicknesses fall and 850s get colder FASTER this run than the 12z run, from a snow standpoint, this run is probably the same as the 12z. Does anyone know...are we using 540 thickness as the rain to snow changeover with this storm? I know it varies based on other conditions, I use 540 as the baseline. FWIW, DTW has 0.23" of precip after thickness falls below 536 per that Euro output posted.

Geos · December 18, 2012

Thanks for adding in UGN numbers Chicago Storm! :thumbsup:

Powerball · December 18, 2012

To all the SE MI folks lamenting the euro going NW, whats funny is the thicknesses fall and 850s get colder FASTER this run than the 12z run, from a snow standpoint, this run is probably the same as the 12z. Does anyone know...are we using 540 thickness as the rain to snow changeover with this storm? I know it varies based on other conditions, I use 540 as the baseline. FWIW, DTW has 0.23" of precip after thickness falls below 536 per that Euro output posted.

Not to get caught up in the specifics, but keep in mind a stronger/further NW storm will also mean a more dry slotting despite a faster arrival of the cold air.

BTW, around here, the 1300m thickness line is usually a good indicator of the rain/snow line.

Chicago Storm · December 18, 2012

Dayton? Just curious about wrap around/LES.

THU 12Z 20-DEC   7.6	 8.7    1004	  83	  97    0.16	 559	 556   
THU 18Z 20-DEC  11.5	 8.3	 995	  88	  83    0.37	 550	 554   
FRI 00Z 21-DEC   1.3    -7.7    1004	  69	  75    0.04	 534	 531   
FRI 06Z 21-DEC  -3.1    -9.8    1008	  61	  98    0.02	 531	 524   
FRI 12Z 21-DEC  -4.8    -9.4    1012	  64	  85    0.01	 533	 524

BadgerFan · December 18, 2012

Joe, what about Oshkosh?

Harry · December 18, 2012

Pretty wild that the euro is back to EXACTLY where it was 2 nights ago. Track to Benton Harbor and then Bay City..

GFS and NAM aren't exactly alike...so what's the real specifics on the 0z Euro track? Seriously.

See above..

TugHillMatt · December 18, 2012

To all the SE MI folks lamenting the euro going NW, whats funny is the thicknesses fall and 850s get colder FASTER this run than the 12z run, from a snow standpoint, this run is probably the same as the 12z. Does anyone know...are we using 540 thickness as the rain to snow changeover with this storm? I know it varies based on other conditions, I use 540 as the baseline. FWIW, DTW has 0.23" of precip after thickness falls below 536 per that Euro output posted.

Josh, you know how much I care, so what's it look like for MBY?

Chicago Storm · December 18, 2012

Joe, what about Oshkosh?

THU 06Z 20-DEC   1.4    -2.7    1011	  95	  99    0.07	 548	 539   
THU 12Z 20-DEC   0.9    -3.7    1002	  96	 100    0.47	 542	 541   
THU 18Z 20-DEC   0.9    -5.2	 995	  95	  99    0.42	 532	 536   
FRI 00Z 21-DEC   0.1    -7.6    1000	  87	  95    0.24	 529	 529   
FRI 06Z 21-DEC  -2.8    -8.8    1008	  78	  72    0.03	 531	 524

chase_stormz · December 18, 2012

THU 06Z 20-DEC 1.4 -2.7 1011	 95	 99 0.07	 548	 539
THU 12Z 20-DEC 0.9 -3.7 1002	 96	 100 0.47	 542	 541
THU 18Z 20-DEC 0.9 -5.2	 995	 95	 99 0.42	 532	 536
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 0.1 -7.6 1000	 87	 95 0.24	 529	 529
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -2.8 -8.8 1008	 78	 72 0.03	 531	 524

chi storm no one answered my question earlier lol. thunderstorm potential with this storm is ______?

Chicago WX · December 18, 2012

So, DSM-DBQ-LSE-GRBish...congrats.

michsnowfreak · December 18, 2012

Josh, you know how much I care, so what's it look like for MBY?

Well...Im not great at reading those things, but for MKG thats 0.37" precip after thickness falls below 535

THU 06Z 20-DEC 3.2 0.4 1012 79 99 0.02 552 543

THU 12Z 20-DEC 2.8 1.9 1001 92 90 0.31 547 547

THU 18Z 20-DEC 5.9 4.6 989 96 98 0.20 537 546

FRI 00Z 21-DEC 2.0 -3.8 988 95 87 0.31 525 535

FRI 06Z 21-DEC 0.7 -7.5 999 81 99 0.24 527 527

FRI 12Z 21-DEC 0.3 -9.4 1007 73 82 0.11 531 525

FRI 18Z 21-DEC -0.3 -9.9 1013 73 14 0.01 538 528

SAT 00Z 22-DEC -0.8 -7.0 1017 72 9 0.01 543 530

BadgerFan · December 18, 2012

THU 06Z 20-DEC 1.4 -2.7 1011	 95	 99 0.07	 548	 539
THU 12Z 20-DEC 0.9 -3.7 1002	 96	 100 0.47	 542	 541
THU 18Z 20-DEC 0.9 -5.2	 995	 95	 99 0.42	 532	 536
FRI 00Z 21-DEC 0.1 -7.6 1000	 87	 95 0.24	 529	 529
FRI 06Z 21-DEC -2.8 -8.8 1008	 78	 72 0.03	 531	 524

Thanks. Really, really close to an all snow event.

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December 20-22 Winter Storm (Blizzard?) Potential

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