Chargers09 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Very small NW side of this. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerFan Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 12 posts today, and you never made an introduction. Welcome to the forum. And good luck with the storm, wherever you're at in WI. Thanks, up near Oshkosh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Let's keep this supposed SE trend going to a Paducah-Columbus-London line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 ? That is all there is and tons of it... That map looks weird. How come there is hardly any snow in W MI, but more in IN? Oh well im certainly not gonna read into a gfs snow map lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Thanks, up near Oshkosh! Oshkosh-b'gosh. Sitting pretty there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 That map looks weird. How come there is hardly any snow in W MI, but more in IN? Oh well im certainly not gonna read into a gfs snow map lol It looks terrible, but apparently thinking that will just result in worthless "lols" and other nonsensical responses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 That map looks weird. How come there is hardly any snow in W MI, but more in IN? Oh well im certainly not gonna read into a gfs snow map lol Seriously, I don't get it. Snow moving towards us in southern WI and then it just turns to rain? What is wrong with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerFan Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 GFS Ensembles: HR 48: HR 60: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 MKE office latest snowfall maps across WI (updated 9:45 PM) Not sure if I've welcome you yet - Welcome! What area of the state are you in? That particular map was made after the 18z runs, so I'm sure that office will change it tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The RGEM/GEM combo keep the QC/RFD in all snow beyond 00z Thu. That would have substantial implications on amounts for this area. Just one model suite, but something that DVN/ORD will need to take note of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Pretty damn impressive sounding for ORD off the 0z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerFan Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 HR 72: Looks a lot like GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Seriously, I don't get it. Snow moving towards us in southern WI and then it just turns to rain? What is wrong with the GFS. The precip shield is all splintered apart.... I'm thinking the ensembles are a more realistic precip shield... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Pretty damn impressive sounding for ORD off the 0z GFS I remember reading somewhere that the thundersnow potential with this storm will be high? I'm not an expert on winter storms by any means. I can hold my own, but I am not great with detecting thundersnow potential with models/soundings. Could you help me out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerFan Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The precip shield is all splintered apart.... I'm thinking the ensembles are a more realistic precip shield... This is just the GFS Ensemble mean but HR 72 Total QPF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 GGEM at 66 hours fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Pretty damn impressive sounding for ORD off the 0z GFS What's the big deal? It's only 65kts at 785 meters lol. EDIT: Make that ~600 meters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 NAM hugger. I wonder what Chad is going with... In case anyone cares, my first guess for LAF is 1-2" with a period of 50-60 mph gusts. Really think the solutions will narrow after the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I wonder what Chad is going with... In case anyone cares, my first guess for LAF is 1-2" with a period of 50-60 mph gusts. Really think the solutions will narrow after the 12z runs. 80's and rain? Really though, your first guess seems reasonable. Like I said earlier, a period of sideways snow will satisfy me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 80's and rain? Really though, your first guess seems reasonable. Like I said earlier, a period of sideways snow will satisfy me. I'm starting to think an inch to two and some power outages are most likely too. I keep Chad's winter forecast in my office, and I look at it whenever I need a laugh. He did say no white Xmas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The precip shield is all splintered apart.... I'm thinking the ensembles are a more realistic precip shield... The Ensembles look much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I'm starting to think an inch to two and some power outages are most likely too. I keep Chad's winter forecast in my office, and I look at it whenever I need a laugh. He did say no white Xmas... lol, I forgot about the power outages. Gonna make a run to Marsh tomorrow to stock up on canned goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 That map looks weird. How come there is hardly any snow in W MI, but more in IN? Oh well im certainly not gonna read into a gfs snow map lol Well that's easy, the storm will deepen as it moves north and east and that will cause it to tilt more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Well that's easy, the storm will deepen as it moves north and east and that will cause it to tilt more One thing I do notice when looking at 2m temps on the models, is that SE MI wont have the crazy drop areas to our S and W will have. With the L passing, even once rain turns to snow, we will stay milder (say 30-33F?) while south of us in IN/OH temps will be plummeting through the 20s and maybe teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 One thing I do notice when looking at 2m temps on the models, is that SE MI wont have the crazy drop areas to our S and W will have. With the L passing, even once rain turns to snow, we will stay milder (say 30-33F?) while south of us in IN/OH temps will be plummeting through the 20s and maybe teens. Seems suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 lol, I forgot about the power outages. Gonna make a run to Marsh tomorrow to stock up on canned goods. I'm rooting for a southward trend...we might get into 60-70 mph stuff in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Not the greatest storm for the Detroit area from any model. Thinking 2"-4" in total accumulation. From what we have been used to it looks great to me!! Even better is the longer term storm potentials. I'm hopping every one gets there blowers ready !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Seems suspect. Nah, usually happens with these kind of storms. CAA will sweep in under/behind the departing low. Closer to it you are, the "warmer" you're going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Might get your wish Hoosier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Seems suspect. Not really. CAA will obviously be stronger further west of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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