Geos Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Anyone thinking the GFS is picking up on the western based block to the north? And that's why it changed like it did tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I figured you were hoping for a complete winter shutout or several GHD repeats. Good luck with both. I'm more realistic than that. Not to say I would shy away from the idea/thought though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 With only the 12z Euro ensemble mean supporting a track like this. As if... 51 members don't count for much I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 0z Ukie at 60 and 72 hours. Kinda interesting following the track, pretty good right hand turn as it strengthens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Freakshow wind fields continue on the 00z GFS...50-55 kts about 1000 feet above the ground in northeast IL at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The GFS run is bogus, the low track may have credence but the precipitation bands are ridiculous. The NAM has a much better handle on them. There is a slight SE trend of the low track for the NAM and GFS models, so it is too early to say where the blizzard will occur. By tomorrows 12Z run things might become clearer. So far I think the NWS surface forecast is the best bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerFan Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 HR 60 GGEM has a 997 low in E-C IL: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 hits the brakes and creeps ene. def pivot point potential in the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I'm starting to like a track through Gary and Lansing now, so many models are indicating a close track to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 0z Ukie at 60 and 72 hours. Kinda interesting following the track, pretty good right hand turn as it strengthens... 10mb drop in 12hrs, nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 About as good as it gets for here near the lake for getting some decent snow after rain. Most of the time precip is decaying faster than Brits teeth during the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerFan Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 HR 72 GGEM: 987 MB L E/C MI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 0z GFS snow maps. That would suck.... There is hardly any snow on the NW side of the Rain/Snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I'll make sure to wave at the low pressure as it passes overhead lol enjoy this one, better be lots of pics from this blizzard northern IL,Iowa, Wisc people.. Think our luck down south looks better next week.... just in time to help my parents move into a new apartment! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 That would suck.... There is hardly any snow on the NW side of the Rain/Snow line. ? That is all there is and tons of it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Freakshow wind fields continue on the 00z GFS...50-55 kts about 1000 feet above the ground in northeast IL at 72 hours. 70kts at 850 over Ohio at 78hrs, and 80kts on the warms side in PA. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 HR 60 GGEM has a 997 low in E-C IL: 12 posts today, and you never made an introduction. Welcome to the forum. And good luck with the storm, wherever you're at in WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 ? That is all there is and tons of it... 4-8 inches is a "ton"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Surprised tsnow hasn't posted this yet. Best potential in that 63-69hr range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Definitely a move towards the ECMWF with the 0z runs. Even if its just a small shift southeast. Now watch the Euro bump northwest lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Globals with a weakening trend tonight. Not a weakening as much as a SE trend. I'm impressed most still strengthen this into the 980s considering the shifts in track. QPF is likely to go down in subsequent runs, I just feel it, but at least it's not tracking over the Quad Cities or Milwaukee on most of these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Definitely a move towards the ECMWF with the 0z runs. Even if its just a small shift southeast. Now watch the Euro bump northwest lol. I sorta expect it to at 00z or 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I'm starting to like a track through Gary and Lansing now, so many models are indicating a close track to that. Sounds like a good track to me, either way we are trending in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Surprised tsnow hasn't posted this yet. Best potential in that 63-69hr range. no lie I literally just saved the exact image to post it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 ? That is all there is and tons of it... Very small NW side of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Very small NW side of this. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Surprised tsnow hasn't posted this yet. Best potential in that 63-69hr range. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 no lie I literally just saved the exact image to post it lol I asume you are referring to the potential for thundersnow correct? I believe I read in someone's afd that the potential for thundersnow will actually be quite high with this storm, is that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I sorta expect it to at 00z or 12z. NAM hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerFan Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 MKE office latest snowfall maps across WI (updated 9:45 PM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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