BadgerFan Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The GFS def. did cave towards the EURO this run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 probably only an inch or two here. geos gets buried. need another 50miles I think you do a little better than that...but it's best case scenario in a changeover situation. Always leery of those kind of deals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Holy cow, would be ripping here if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Seems like the GFS gets stronger with lake enhancement off of LM with each run once the low is east of said lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Holy cow, would be ripping here if that verified. 3" at best...boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Same here bud!! Lots of QPF too! Hour 69 is nuts! That would shut down things for awhile. That's 3pm in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 3" at best...boring. C'mon man, DAB. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 3" at best...boring. Disagree especially with the trends in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Same here bud!! Lots of QPF too! How things looking out my way? Dekalb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I think you do a little better than that...but it's best case scenario in a changeover situation. Always leery of those kind of deals... We're still 48 hours out but the American models once again giving in to the Euro is nice to see. An 0z GFS scenario just isn't going to bring good totals to NE IL but would deliver an a couple hours of cool weather. If we can get a few more more shifts SE then things could get interesting but you also have to imagine we'll be dealing with a less dynamic storm in that case...so this might be as good as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Seems like the GFS gets stronger with lake enhancement off of LM with each run once the low is east of said lake. That is the one thing to glean from this. Everyone in the MKE and Chicago areas seems to be overreacting to this run, it only looks like 3-6" in the areas near the lake due to the 0C line moving through around 18z. Only about 0.4-0.5" of QPF falls after that time. It's a decent run but let's not overreact. The lake enhancement is a decent point though. These further SE tracks make that a possibility, however remote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 C'mon man, DAB. Next. I'm holding out for for that. All or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Disagree especially with the trends in the models. That run at face value is about 3" at best here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerFan Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 0z GFS snow maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 We're still 48 hours out but the American models once again giving in to the Euro is nice to see. An 0z GFS scenario just isn't going to bring good totals to NE IL but would deliver an a couple hours of cool weather. If we can get a few more more shifts SE then things could get interesting but you also have to imagine we'll be dealing with a less dynamic storm in that case...so this might be as good as it gets. I really can't argue with any of this logic. But yeah, a couple hours of fun would be nice. I'm just hoping for a few sideways snowflakes down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 That run at face value is about 3" at best here. Face value sure, trends are stating otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Holy cow, would be ripping here if that verified. Wow no kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 That is the one thing to glean from this. Everyone in the MKE and Chicago areas seems to be overreacting to this run, it only looks like 3-6" in the areas near the lake due to the 0C line moving through around 18z. Only about 0.4-0.5" of QPF falls after that time. It's a decent run but let's not overreact. The lake enhancement is a decent point though. These further SE tracks make that a possibility, however remote. About 12 noon it flips over to snow up and down the lake. 66-67 hours guesstimate from wunderground maps. The deformation band will be totally below freezing at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Wow no kidding I wish I could go back and see what this site was showing for the GHD event. 50-60mph gust potential with this thing is definitely legit, and that's not too far from the GHD/Dec '87 threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 That run at face value is about 3" at best here. You so badly want to set and crush more futility records. I could care less either way and would probably rather go for futility records if it's only going to be an inch or two that just blows in to drifts anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Face value sure, trends are stating otherwise. I wasn't commening on the trends, nor was he. This run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Face value sure, trends are stating otherwise. Loving these trends as I am sitting here in Lincoln Park. Hopefully the next one is a hit back home for you guys in Macomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I'm holding out for for that. All or nothing. I figured you were hoping for a complete winter shutout or several GHD repeats. Good luck with both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I wasn't commening on the trends, nor was he. This run. Fine then in the microcosm of this run sure 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 That run at face value is about 3" at best here. we have some work to do to even sniff advisory criteria totals but a brief window of mod snow with 50 mph gusts would easily be the most exciting weather in nearly half a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 HPC says....no no no ECMWF....this is pre-GFS....FWIW MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1108 PM EST MON DEC 17 2012 VALID DEC 18/0000 UTC THRU DEC 21/1200 UTC ...LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... PREFERENCE: NON-ECMWF CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z NAM AND 18Z GFS ARE A BIT FASTER AND ALSO QUICKER TO ADVANCE AND DEEPEN SFC LOW PRESSURE OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS ON TUES AND THEN NEWD OVER THE MID MS VLY AND TWD THE GREAT LAKES REGION WED AND THURS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW GENERALLY THE SLOWEST OF THE MDLS THROUGH THE PD...WITH THE 12Z UKMET/GEM GLOBAL SOLNS GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE 00Z NAM/18Z GFS CAMP. THE 12Z ECMWF IS ALSO RIGHT OF THE GLOBAL MDL CONSENSUS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK...WITH ONLY THE 12Z ECENS MEAN SUPPORTING A TRACK THIS. THE 18Z GEFS AND 21Z SREF ARE LEFT OF THE 12Z ECMWF/ECENS MEAN CAMP AND ALSO FASTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 You so badly want to set and crush more futility records. You know my feelings on that issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 If the Euro had the NAM's strength with the GFS's track along with the DGEX's vorticity and GGEM's precip...it'd be like weather porn. Lol...don't forget to add tweets from JB that the "MASSIVE SNOWSTORM WILL BURY US ALL AND THAT IS HOW THE WORLD WILL END ACCORDING TO THE MAYANS!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Fine then in the microcosm of this run sure 3". Thank you. Obviously the recent trends are a bit SE, which was your point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 HPC says....no no no ECMWF....this is pre-GFS....FWIW MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1108 PM EST MON DEC 17 2012 VALID DEC 18/0000 UTC THRU DEC 21/1200 UTC ...LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION... PREFERENCE: NON-ECMWF CONSENSUS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE 00Z NAM AND 18Z GFS ARE A BIT FASTER AND ALSO QUICKER TO ADVANCE AND DEEPEN SFC LOW PRESSURE OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS ON TUES AND THEN NEWD OVER THE MID MS VLY AND TWD THE GREAT LAKES REGION WED AND THURS. THE 12Z ECMWF IS NOW GENERALLY THE SLOWEST OF THE MDLS THROUGH THE PD...WITH THE 12Z UKMET/GEM GLOBAL SOLNS GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE 00Z NAM/18Z GFS CAMP. THE 12Z ECMWF IS ALSO RIGHT OF THE GLOBAL MDL CONSENSUS WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK...WITH ONLY THE 12Z ECENS MEAN SUPPORTING A TRACK THIS. THE 18Z GEFS AND 21Z SREF ARE LEFT OF THE 12Z ECMWF/ECENS MEAN CAMP AND ALSO FASTER. With only the 12z Euro ensemble mean supporting a track like this. As if... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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