cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Man I love seeing a ripping CCB and WCB so close to each other. Just phenomenal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Extracted data has a nice 6 hour drop in 850 temps here of 15.3ºC (7.4º to -7.9º). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 NAM is still slightly tamer with winds than the GFS...not by much though. We'll see what the 00z GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Spicy update from team DVN... .UPDATE... ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO OVERNIGHT PACKAGE. ANALYSIS AND VERIFICATION CONFIRMS A COLDER TREND WITH A SOUTHEAST SLIDE IN SURFACE LOW TRACK ON AMERICAN SOLUTIONS. 00Z NAM ANALYSIS SUGGESTS STILL PLAYING CATCH UP WHICH HAS BEEN COMMON FOR A WHILE WITH THIS MODEL. WILL BE SENDING OUT UPDATED WSW...OR WINTER STORM WATCH PRODUCT SHORTLY WITH MENTION OF HIGHER WINDS GUSTING UP TO NEAR 50 MPH ON BACK SIDE AND BLIZZARD TO NEAR BLIZZARDS SUPPORTED PER LOCAL STUDIES AND TECHNIQUES. THE LOCAL IMPACTS OF WHERE THESE CONDITIONS ARE TO OCCUR STILL TOO UNCERTAIN TO ASSESS IF AND EVEN HOW MUCH OF THE FORECAST COULD BE IMPACTED...THIS IS LIKELY STILL 12-24 HOURS AWAY. WHAT IS CERTAIN IS THE STRONG WINDS WITH THE SNOW AND CERTAIN NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO POSSIBLY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE COLD DEFORMATION ZONE IN RURAL AND OPEN AREAS AT A MINIMUM. THE UPDATED WSW PRODUCT SHOULD BE OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HALF HOUR. NICHOLS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 MSN has some mixing issues. Low levels scorch for a bit. GRB the same, but not as bad and for a shorter period of time. MKE is pretty ugly. This of course, verbatim off the NAM. Outside 48 hours. You know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 You mean you're not going to road trip it? Nah riding the Euro. Plus have to work lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 I'm wondering how the offices on the fringe will handle this one. Might almost be forced into advisories even with borderline snow amounts given a period of intense snow/wind coinciding with rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I'm wondering how the offices on the fringe will handle this one. Might almost be forced into advisories even with borderline snow amounts given a period of intense snow/wind coinciding with rush hour. Seriously if you're MKX and you see the potential for a backend deformation zone impacting the evening rush hour with strong winds, that's definitely worth considering a short duration blizzard warning, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Reminds me of a couple years ago when chi issued blizzard warnings for a 5 min event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 IWX's cone of uncertainty. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=iwx&storyid=90478&source=0 Big fan that they leave the NAM out of the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 To my eyes the new RGEM looks a touch south at 48hrs. Rain/snow line already into NW IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 IWX's cone of uncertainty. http://www.crh.noaa....=90478&source=0 Big fan that they leave the NAM out of the mix. I'm looking for significant wind here in Michiana and backside LES. Good to have a major system making its winter appearance in our area. Busy time for me so I appreciate the model updates and comments on this site as a headsup timesaver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I wanna see the full GFS package here before I bite on the new data fully shoving this thing more SE tonight....if it bites it gets a bit more interesting around here. This will, should these winds verify, definitely be a blizzard warning for a huge chunk of real estate Thursday. May be a lot of places shut down and closed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerFan Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 GFS looks very similar track wise to 18z. 996 C. MO at hr 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerFan Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Stronger and slower now at HR 60. 992 just a tad NE of STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 GFS not as amped, as far NW compared to its 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 And slowly the Euro pulls them closer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerFan Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Ends up at 984 in SW MI. Tracked pretty much a tad south of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Better print that one off MKE and ORD folks...all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I wanna see the full GFS package here before I bite on the new data fully shoving this thing more SE tonight....if it bites it gets a bit more interesting around here. This will, should these winds verify, definitely be a blizzard warning for a huge chunk of real estate Thursday. May be a lot of places shut down and closed up. New GFS really dumps the precip on the QCA after 12z Thu as the cyclone bombs. Would definitely make travel difficult to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerFan Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Chicago and Milwaukee get nailed on the wrap around snows. GRB goes from 1.25 QPF on 18z GFS to about .25-.5 QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Better print that one off MKE and ORD folks...all things considered. probably only an inch or two here. geos gets buried. need another 50miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Chicago and Milwaukee get nailed on the wrap around snows. GRB goes from 1.25 QPF on 18z GFS to about .25-.5 QPF. The positive for them is it is at least all snow most likely. This definitely looks more spread the wealth like, but not nearly as generous or weenieish as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Wow, I get smoked on this GFS run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 If the Euro had the NAM's strength with the GFS's track along with the DGEX's vorticity and GGEM's precip...it'd be like weather porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 If the Euro had the NAM's strength with the GFS's track along with the DGEX's vorticity and GGEM's precip...it'd be like weather porn. thanks for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerFan Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Well, 18z GFS was all snow for GRB as well. Surface temps of 32 or below and everything else was all below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Wow, I get smoked on this GFS run! Same here bud!! Lots of QPF too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 If the Euro had the NAM's strength with the GFS's track along with the DGEX's vorticity and GGEM's precip...it'd be like weather porn. So variable x combined with y combined with z combined with ∆ combined with ƒ of x equals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.