Justin Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 One thing in the DVN CWA that will have to be watched, I think, is as this system tries to bomb out to our East is that heavy snow band on the backside orientating N-S for a bit. If that happens and for how long it happens could really give some surprise totals across this area. Other thing I'm watching here is where exactly the energy phases and begins the process of neutral and negative tilt. The W based -NAO that one of the other offices mentioned would seem to scream out that this thing has to be a bit more to the SE than the GFS and NAM are showing but maybe not. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XcNick Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Taking a guess, but the 0z Nam will end up being cooler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Holy HP at H54 of the 00Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Holy HP at H54 of the 00Z NAM Iowa= pounded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 H5 wave looks a tad farther south in the southern Plains at 54 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerFan Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Iowa and W/C WI are gonna get destroyed on this run. Low seems a tad to the east and colder overall on the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Much better wraparound moisture this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Daddylonglegs crushed. Buried. Waist deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 GRB gets annihilated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Euro track + NAM precip would be fun.... The NAM is soooo amazing, but a farther chase for me.. The Euro would be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Low passes from Peoria to UGN it looks like. More east for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerFan Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 SREF has the best snow accumulation from Marshall town Iowa up past Waterloo to La Crosse then just west of Wausau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 With LES enhancement, Newberry, MI would be crippled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerFan Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Through hr 69, NAM has 1.5 + QPF from Madison up to just south of GRB and it's still snowing pretty good. Damn. Ends up at about 1.75-2.00 QPF which would be nearly all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 981 mb east of MKE at 66 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 NAM is the best weenie model really. Chances these amounts verify on this run...like 15%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Wow, wicked defo zone even affecting Milwaukee with a fair amount of snow on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Even having to cut the higher end totals by 40%, which I think is a necessity when it comes to the NAM, this is impressive: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 NAM is the best weenie model really. Chances these amounts verify on this run...like 15%. for sure...at least it stopped the NW bleeding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Wind potential still there on this run, with an area of 60mph+ gust potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadgerFan Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Even having to cut the higher end totals by 40%, which I think is a necessity when it comes to the NAM, this is impressive: Yeah. 18z GFS though had 1.5+ in QPF as well across most of WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 fwiw I'm surprised it's not more clownish. There's a swath of 1.75-2.00" raw QPF through C WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Deepest any model has gone so far, atleast at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 fwiw I can pick out Alek and SSC's places on that snowfall map. You know, the spots without any snow. Also love how the scale goes to 120". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Wind potential still there on this run, with an area of 60mph+ gust potential. Unreal. I'll settle for 2" if it's falling during that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Wind potential still there on this run, with an area of 60mph+ gust potential. In the two frames before that one it showed a small pocket of 60mph wind gust potential back by Waterloo and Dubuque. Blizzard conditions would be a certainty if that materializes. Even if the heavier snows have moved on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Looks like 16" for Turtle! Per the map above! 925mb low about 40-50 miles further SE as it crosses WI compared to the last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Unreal. I'll settle for 2" if it's falling during that. You mean you're not going to road trip it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The 00z NAM develops a secondary low early Friday morning around eastern New York state with wraparound snow in southwestern Ontario moving into the Greater Toronto Area/Golden Horseshoe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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