SpartyOn Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Wow, 28.37%. How did you come up with that percentage? U of M wizzz kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Wow, 28.37%. How did you come up with that percentage? It's a pretty advanced algorithm I learned in my advanced meteorological forecasting class, I won't get into details but it basically takes a average of all current model outputs weighted based in the models known biases and strengths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Rain and wind. That is all I am seeing. I think we get some intense wind gusts, but that's about it. Have to wait for the next one. custom IYBY forecast.....light/mod rain, dry slot, 1.5". Top gust 45 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The 18z GFS really hammers SE Wi minus the lakeside area. Correct me if im wrong? Lakeside areas get hit pretty hard, especially when you throw the wind wild card in. Might be delayed a bit, but there was mention from the MKX office of lake enhanced snow along the lake later on Thursday. +thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 custom IYBY forecast.....light/mod rain, dry slot, 1.5". Top gust 45 mph. Should make working interersting.. High winds are always fun.... Would hate to see some power surge wreck the shiny new iMac the company sent me to do my work on...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 New to this forum (ex Accu-weather) poster from southeast Michigan.... What are the chances that this thing continues south/east and gives southeast Mi at least a few inches? The ECMWF remains the last standing in the southern solutions. Though most WFOs are proclaiming an early euro victory. The euro would give a chance of accumulating snow for most of SeMi. Although this would happen after an up-hill battle with rain and a dry slot. Bay City & Saginaw stand the best shot of getting a decent event. DTX pulled the 1-3" inch card this afternoon for the most of the region. Come tonight and the following 00z runs we should know if that was a good, or bad. This (GFS and NAM) is not a good track for most of southern lwr MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 Eyeballing the 18z GFS ensembles, it looks like over half are still over or west of Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Usually once the low passes we end up getting wind and a few flurries, but nothing measurable in most cases........... Sometimes all you will get is flurries, but I wouldnt say in "most cases", it varies each time. Every storm is different, it all depends how much moisture is in the wraparound or deform zone, and how much the lake get involved. We will probably not see any snow from the main storm so to speak, but at this far stage, the chances look quite good to get anywhere from a dusting to a few inches with wraparound and LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michigansnowstorm Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I see this going further south and east than indicated by the GFS and NAM..............just my opinion and not because I want snow in MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Eyeballing the 18z GFS ensembles, it looks like over half are still over or west of Chicago. yep but i'd expect them to lag even if it was a legit shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Eyeballing the 18z GFS ensembles, it looks like over half are still over or west of Chicago. FWIW, 12z ensembles were all over or west of Chicago, majority being west. I count two of the 18z members that are hits for Chicago. On the other hand, I see one that may bring mixing issues to MSP for a brief period of time. Glass half full post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Nice feeling having a big system to follow again. Biggest threat since GHD. Can't wait for the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Man some of the gfs ensemble members make me want to wet myself. Now of they were only euro members.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Man some of the gfs ensemble members make me want to wet myself. Now of they were only euro members.... P004 P005 P007 to be sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 At this point I don't foresee a way that my flight to Chicago Thursday evening won't be canceled...oh the joys of holiday travel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 At this point I don't foresee a way that my flight to Chicago Thursday evening won't be canceled...oh the joys of holiday travel. yeah our accum potential is sketchy but flight impacts are likely to be severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 At this point I don't foresee a way that my flight to Chicago Thursday evening won't be canceled...oh the joys of holiday travel. where are you flying from and into what airport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Best guess... Nam has a 75 mile shift this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Anyone have a Euro total storm precip map... Probably through 90 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Anyone have a Euro total storm precip map... Probably through 90 hours. Not for free Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Wave should be on shore tomorrow afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Wave should be on shore tomorrow afternoon? Yes, it should be sampled by the 00z raobs out in California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Best guess... Nam has a 75 mile shift this run looks like any change will be minor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 where are you flying from and into what airport? From RDU to O'Hare, scheduled to get in around 7:30, key word scheduled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 From RDU to O'Hare, scheduled to get in around 7:30, key word scheduled. PM I take it? Delays from the wind wouldn't be out of the question let alone snow! Lot of details to ironed out between now and Wednesday night still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Early but nam a bit south so far looks about as identical as two runs can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 18, 2012 Author Share Posted December 18, 2012 I see virtually no difference on the 00z NAM at 36 hours compared to the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Clown map madness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 I see virtually no difference on the 00z NAM at 36 hours compared to the 18z run. lol, yep. If anything a micro hair faster which is only notable because it was already the fastest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 LP over TX panhandle may be a smudge further south then the 18z. @ 42hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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