A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 yes, Cyclone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 lol cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 It is definitely further SE than the 00z ensembles were. Allan Huffmans model page is good, but its in 24-hr increments, so you have to basically draw the line yourself for exact track. The 00z mean tracked it approximately over Detroit, and the 12z mean tracks it approximately a little south of Findlay, OH. The track over Findlay OH caught my eye. That would be fairly epic. DTX favoring the euro. There will be a very sharp gradient around these parts from north to south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 If I were the NAM/GFS... I would totally flinch... Especially with the Hulk giving them "the stare" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Looks like KC hoisted some new watches. DMX/DVN sure to fill in the gap here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 My guess is the GFS will stop its NW drift in about 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 lol I am a real American European, fight for the rights of every man.... Come on Euro, bring it home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The bolded part from MKX's AFD made me chuckle a little. Untrustworthy...lol THE DYNAMIC/FORCING PROFILE HASN/T CHANGED FROM THE OVERNIGHT INTERPRETATION. THE UPPER SYSTEM IS STILL GOING NEGATIVE TILT AND INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES INTO WISCONSIN. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS...VS INTENSIFYING EAST OF US. THIS MAKES THE STORM EVEN MORE UNTRUSTWORTHY AND DANGEROUS. COLUMN COOLING CAN HAPPEN MUCH FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THE OMEGA FORCING WITHIN THE DENDRITE REGION...CROSS-HAIRS...EXPLODES FOR A TIME...HIGHLIGHTING SOME PRETTY HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL CENTERED AROUND 12Z THURSDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 GRR likes the EURO. Still clinging to a thread of hope, I am. WE CONTINUE TO FAVOR A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE EURO AT THIS TIME DUE TO NUMEROUS FACTORS. THE CONSISTENT FACTORS ARE PRESENT THAT MAKE THE EURO THE PREFERRED MODEL MANY TIMES INCLUDING BETTER INITIALIZATION AND BETTER LAND/OCEAN INTERACTION SINCE THE WAVE IS STILL OVER THE PACIFIC AT THIS TIME. ALSO...THE EURO HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE OTHER MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD IT. ANOTHER FACTOR IS THE GFS TENDS TO CLOSE OFF LOWS TOO QUICK DUE TO ITS HANDLING OF UPPER WAVES AND PCPN/CONVECTION...AND THIS LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE THE CASE ONCE AGAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Lol good stuff Alek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The track over Findlay OH caught my eye. That would be fairly epic. DTX favoring the euro. There will be a very sharp gradient around these parts from north to south. Actually I posted the DTX disc, I dont think they are favoring anything yet. I refuse to get excited this far out about the euro because basically, its the superior model but its in the minority model camp right now. What I AM excited about is the prospects of the first frickin measurable snow since Nov 25th. Wraparound, lake enhancment, and LES...whatever you want to call it, should at LEAST give us some light accumulations. DTX even said 1-3" is an early guess and this would be assuming the main storm is all rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 HPC pretty bullish this far out. Good sign I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 We need to watch the trough out west and see how it interacts with our lee side cyclone . The faster it ejects the more likely our cyclone strengthens quicker and moves more NW. A slower solution would obviously mean a more southerly track and slower development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 MKX THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER SNOW IS LOOKING VERY GOOD. QEPV CHARTS AND SOUNDING ANALYSIS ARE SHOWING LOTS OF POTENTIAL FROM 750MB UP THROUGH 500MB. PRETTY STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OFF THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE ALMOST TOO HIGH...REACHING ABOUT .75 INCH...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE CLIMO. TYPICAL BIG SNOWSTORMS IN DECEMBER HAVE A PW OF AROUND .4 TO .5. THIS SPEAKS TO THE WARMTH OF THE NAM AND GFS. QPF AMOUNTS ARE STILL AROUND 1 INCH. SO...WHERE IT WILL BE ALL SNOW...THIS MEANS WE COULD SEE SNOW ACCUMS PUSHING 12 INCHES NORTH AND WEST OF MADISON. BUT...THIS IS FOLLOWING MORE OF A NAM/GFS/EC BLEND. IF THE MODELS COME IN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOUTHERN SOLUTION...EXPECT MORE SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL CRANK UP BY LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY HITTING 35 MPH. THIS COULD LEAD TO BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 O yeah...The Euro Model...MMM <3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 It appears the HPC is going with a american/euro blend in their latest snow outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 It appears the HPC is going with a american/euro blend in their latest snow outlook. PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 426 PM EST MON DEC 17 2012 VALID 00Z TUE DEC 18 2012 - 00Z FRI DEC 21 2012 DAYS 1-3... ...CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN LEE ROCKIES CYCLOGENESIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING APPROXIMATELY FROM NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA TO JUST NORTH OF ST LOUIS BY THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS STRONGLY AGREE THAT THERMAL PROFILES SUFFICIENTLY NORTH OF THE LOW'S TRACK WILL SUPPORT SNOW. HOWEVER...THE LOW'S TRACK IS SOMEWHERE UNCLEAR BASED ON THE LARGE SOLUTION SPREAD. THE LATEST APPROACH IS A MODEL CONSENSUS THAT FAVORS A PREDOMINATELY 12Z UKMET LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONE TRACK...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF THE FASTER 12Z GFS AND SLOWER 12Z ECMWF ADDED TO COMPLETE THE PREFERRED CLUSTER. THIS APPROACH GENERALLY EXCLUDES THE MUCH FASTER NAM AND SREF MEAN SOLUTIONS. THUS...THE FINAL PROBABILITIES OF 4/8/12 INCHES OF SNOW WERE SIGNIFICANTLY MODIFIED AWAY FROM THE SREF MEAN'S INFLUENCE...INSTEAD FAVORING THE ABOVE CHOICE AND SPREAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 DVN WHILE THE NORTHWEST THIRD AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA MAY EVENTUALLY GET 4-8+ INCHES BY THU EVENING...THE ENSEMBLES MINUS THE ECMWF SUGGEST THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 8-12+ INCHES OCCUR WEST AND NORTH OF THE DVN CWA ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL IA...UP THROUGH NORTHEASTERN IA INTO SW/CENTRAL WI. EXTENT OF BOMBING CYCLONE TO THE EAST STILL INDICATED BY BULK OF THE MODEL RUNS TO DRIVE VERY STRONG NORTH BECOMING NORTHWEST WINDS LATE WED NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON THU...SUSTAINED 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AT LEAST 45 MPH. GRAVITY WAVE PHENOMENA WEST OF RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLONE COULD ALSO PRODUCE ISOLATED GUSTS OVER 50 MPH AT MAX DEEPENING STAGE ON THU. THUS WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOWS OCCUR...NEAR BLIZZARD OR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS VERY POSSIBLE. BACK TO THE ECMWF...IT/S TRACK WOULD MEAN MORE OF A DIRECT HIT UPON THE LOCAL AREA AND HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH...ESPECIALLY TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME FUJI-WARA EFFECT OF SECONDARY VORT INTERACTING IN TROF BASE AND ENHANCING DEF ZONE SNOWS ACRS THE LOCAL AREA ON THU. DESPITE ONGOING MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND THE SYSTEM TO BE BETTER SAMPLED FOR THE 00Z RUNS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY 12Z TUE...WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE DVN CWA FOR WED NIGHT AND THU GIVING A NOD SOMEWHAT TO THE ENSEMBLE TRACK. THE STRONG WINDS LOOK TO BE A LARGE IMPACT EVEN FOR ADVISORY LEVEL OR SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW AMOUNTS. DO FEEL THE CWA WILL HAVE TO EVENTUALLY BE DIVIDED INTO WINTER STORM WARNING AND ADVISORY AREAS...BUT WHERE AN WHEN STILL UP IN THE AIR. A WATCHFUL EYE WILL ALSO NEED TO BE OPEN FOR TRENDS ON THE NEXT 1-2 MODEL RUNS BACK CLOSER TO THE CONSISTENT ECMWF...WHICH WOULD THEN WARRANT THE NEED OF EXPANDING THE WATCH SOUTH AND EAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 18Z GFS a touch further south in the Panhandle so far.. Edit: 850's out ahead a tad cooler as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 18Z GFS a touch further south in the Panhandle so far.. just beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 18z GFS will take a step towards the Euro. Weaker initially...waa laa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Little further south and weaker as it moves into west central IL through 63hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I think every office AFD I've read so far says "euro, eastern solutions favored". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 18z GFS sfc low goes up at the southern tip of the lake up to near GRR it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 gfs blinked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 I think every office AFD I've read so far says "euro, eastern solutions favored". With the phrase "Due to run to run consistency" thrown in somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 Some legit wraparound moisture on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 good run for mke crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 LOT OVERALL FAVOR THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES DUE TO THE EXPECTATION THAT STRONG BLOCKING RIDGE JUST NORTH OF HUDSON BAY/A WEST BASED -NAO WILL MAKE THE FAR NORTHWEST TRACK LESS LIKELY. DID HOWEVER GIVE A NOD TO THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH A TRACK NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE EC BUT STILL SOUTHEAST OF CHICAGO ON THURSDAY. THIS DIFFERENCE IS QUITE SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS FOR CWA. THE NCEP SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN A PRIMARILY RAIN EVENT WELL INTO THURSDAY...BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING DEEP LOW. FURTHERMORE...THE UPPER LOW TRACK WOULD ALSO INTRODUCE DRY SLOT ISSUES...RESULTING IN LOWER LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF AMOUNTS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF STARTS OUT WARM...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST CWA...BUT THE CHANGEOVER TO A WET SNOW OCCURS MUCH QUICKER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 good run for mke crew Great run for them, considering it starts as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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